A new survey shows the American Dream is alive with Hispanics. Americans see the Iran and Iraq wars failed to achieve their goals. And what time does the Super Bowl polling start? We can answer that one. This is HuffPollster for Friday, January 31, 2014.
HISPANICS 'LEAD THE WAY IN THEIR FAITH IN THE AMERICAN DREAM' - Pamela Constable and Scott Clement: "A recent national survey by The Washington Post and the University of Virginia’s Miller Center points to some surprising findings. In many cases, Hispanic residents’ faith in the American Dream exceeds that of whites and African Americans — an optimism that contrasts sharply with the current economic status of Hispanics...According to The Washington Post-Miller Center poll, 57 percent of Hispanics predict that they are more likely to move up than down in social class over the next few years, and a similar amount say they are better off than their parents were at the same age. Fully 64 percent believe that a college diploma is a major part of the American Dream, compared with half of whites and African Americans. Seven in 10 cite education or hard work as most important in climbing the economic ladder. And more than six in 10 believe that their children will be better off than they are — a percentage that matches African Americans’ view but is more than double the share of whites who predict improvement." [WaPost]
AMERICANS SEE IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN WARS AS FAILURES - Pew Research: "After more than a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, the public does not think the United States has achieved its goals in either country. About half of Americans (52%) say the U.S. has mostly failed to achieve its goals in Afghanistan while 38% say it has mostly succeeded. Opinions about the U.S. war in Iraq are virtually the same: 52% say the United States has mostly failed in reaching its goals there, while 37% say it has mostly succeeded. In both cases, evaluations of the wars have turned more negative in recent years. In November 2011, as the U.S. was completing its military withdrawal from Iraq, a majority (56%) thought the U.S. had achieved its goals there." [Pew]
FOUR IN TEN AMERICANS WOULDN'T WANT THEIR KIDS TO PLAY FOOTBALL - Mark Murray: "Forty percent of Americans say they would encourage their children to play a different sport than football due to concerns about concussions, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll...There is a striking split when it comes to how those at different income levels see the issue. Forty seven percent of respondents making the highest incomes (more than $75,000 per year) say they don’t want their children playing football due to these concerns while just 28 percent of those with the lowest incomes (less than $30,000) say the same. Still, 57 percent of Americans in the survey say they would have no problem if their child wanted to play organized football." [NBC News]
8 percent of Colorado football fans will smoke pot during the Super Bowl - Quinnipiac University: "Thinking about their Super Bowl buzz, 6 percent of Colorado adults who plan to watch the game say they will enjoy it with a mix of beer and marijuana while 36 percent plan to stick with tradition and just drink beer, according to a Quinnipiac University poll completed last night and released today. Another 2 percent plan to go with marijuana only and 56 percent say they will take neither beer nor marijuana....All Colorado adults say 71 - 28 percent that it would not bother them if the Denver Broncos smoke marijuana after the game. There is almost no gender gap, but disapproval rises with age: adults 18 to 49 years old say no worries 78 - 22 percent and voters 50 to 64 years old agree 68 - 30 percent. Among adults 65 and older, 45 percent would be bothered and 49 percent would not be bothered." [Quinnipiac]
And in honor of Sunday's big game, here are your Super Bowl 'outliers':
-Micah Roberts (R) has more on the NBC/WSJ poll results on the NFL's response to the issue of concussions in football. [POS]
-55 percent of Americans are looking forward to the Super Bowl. [Pew Research]
-56 percent predict the Broncos will win. [Rasmussen Reports]
-45 percent of Americans think the NFL should set a minimum temperature for the Super Bowl. [YouGov]
-Janet Harris uses a text analysis of coverage of the Seahawks and Broncos to match up star players with the dog breeds they most resemble. [HuffPost]
-And the fake poll: 60 percent of parents are too busy with divorce to worry about football safety. [The Onion]
WHEN TWITTER = 2016 POLLING + GAME OF THRONES + THE KITCHEN SINK - Submitted without further comment...
-Slate's John Dickerson: "If we're going to publish meaningless 2016 polls can we at least do fun ones? How does Hillary do in NH against Game of Thrones characters?" [@jdickerson]
-GOP Consultant Rick Wilson: "@jdickerson Hodor vs Hillary." [@TheRickWilson]
-James Fiorvento: "NH SHOCK POLL: RODERICK SPODE(32%) SIR TALBOT BUXOMLEY(18%) HILLARY (25%) LORD VETINARI (23%) PAT BUCHANAN (2%)" [@NJFiorvento]
Rasmussen Reports – Help Wanted. Rasmussen has a new position open for a senior data scientist/statistician to help lead us into the future of public opinion polling in a way that relies less on land lines and more on a combination of the various media channels available today. If your background is in statistics, mathematics and programming and you have a vision for the next wave in public opinion, please apply. Love of politics and policy a plus. Job listing and more details here.
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FRIDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data that we missed during our holiday break (starting with a few
new items from today:
-Hillary Clinton leads all Republicans in Florida, and leads Chris Christie by a wider margin than in November. [Quinnipiac]
-The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to its lowest level in two months. [Bloomberg]
-Gallup rolls up 178,527 interviews from 2013 to rank the 50 states on self-reported ideology. [Gallup]
-PPP (D) finds Fox News to be both the most and least trusted name in news once again. [PPP]
-The Chicago Council on Global Affairs calls "biassed questions" on the Iran Agreement that "contaminate" results of Daily Beast survey on the sponsored by the Israel Project. [Running Numbers]
-Sean Trende wonders what Republicans are thinking on the immigration issue. [RCP]
-Jay Cost says money is more important than polling numbers to Hillary Clinton. [Weekly Standard]
-Stan Greenberg (D) talks about what his focus groups said about the State of the Union address. [Political Wire podcast]
-PPP (D) is trolling us hard. [Talking Points Memo]