WASHINGTON -- A veteran Republican digital consultant warned Thursday that a successful election this fall could set back the Republican Party's efforts to modernize its approach to campaigns.
Michael Beach, co-founder of Targeted Victory, spoke at a gathering of technology, business and campaign executives and consultants, organized by Harvard University's Institute of Politics and the Internet Association.
Beach, who came up through the ranks of Republican campaigns at a time when the GOP was ahead of Democrats in terms of voter targeting, said his party has actually gone backwards in technological terms over the last few electoral cycles -- in part because the midterms have been "wave" elections, in 2006 for Democrats and in 2010 for Republicans.
The tea party wave of 2010, Beach said, "was great for Republicans, [but] it was the worst thing that ever happened to our profession because it just reinforced bad habits."
"All you had to do was be standing after the primary and you won," Beach said. "We could have done anything in '10 and won. We could have done leaflets."
As a result, Republican consultants and operatives did not focus on the tech advances that were being made in politics. President Barack Obama's team had pioneered new uses of digital campaigning in 2008, and Democrats built on that experience for the next four years, while Republicans insisted that high unemployment and Obama's unpopularity would be enough for another GOP romp in 2012.
"Senate races we worked on in '12 were worse than the ones we worked on in '10," Beach said.
Republican campaign sophistication has atrophied since Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and other GOP operatives were the first to "micro-target" voters, using a vast array of data about the electorate. President George W. Bush's reelection campaign in 2004 was the pinnacle of the Rove-Mehlman machine's efforts, but Republicans have since slipped backwards in many ways, Beach said.
"In 2004, you knew how many votes per precinct you had to get in order to win that state," said Beach, who worked on voter turnout in the crucial state of Ohio that year. "Ask a campaign now how many votes they need per precinct, and you won't find anybody [who knows] because it's like, 'We're either going to win or lose based on a tidal wave.'"
The wave elections in 2006 and 2010 reinforced the impression among many Republicans that diligent, labor-intensive work on identifying, persuading and turning out voters is less important than the overall political climate.
Following Obama's win in 2012 over Mitt Romney, due in part to a campaign that identified new voters through state-of-the-art data analytics and modeling, and turned them out with aggressive and precise recruitment, Republicans said they were going to catch up to Democrats.
The problem, Beach said, is that the same dynamic that shaped 2010 and 2012 is gearing up for the 2014 and 2016 elections.
"Guess what '14's going to be? I believe a tidal wave," Beach said. Many political observers believe Obama's declining popularity and widespread dissatisfaction with Obamacare is going to hand control of the Senate to the GOP as well as increase the party's majority in the House this November.
If that happens, Beach said, "It's just going to reinforce more bad habits."
Republican consultants, he said, will observe the results and say, "'Oh, '12, that was just an outlier. We don't need younger voters.'"
And that, he said, will only set the party up for a bad result in the 2016 presidential election.
"For us, I think it's going to be a rude awakening in '16," Beach said.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.