Unfaithfulness bothers voters less than graft. Those who oppose Obamacare because it's "not liberal enough" are not as liberal as you may have assumed. And if you're not already tired of political ads, here are 50,000 more. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, April 8, 2014.
VOTERS LESS TROUBLED BY POLITICIANS' AFFAIRS THAN ABUSE OF POWER - Quinnipiac: "American voters dislike a politician who abuses official power more than an elected official caught in an extra-marital affair, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today. The independent Quinnipiac University presented voters with a theoretical congressman - James Miller - whose 'main concern in office is developing policies to help middle-class, working families.' Miller was described as 53, married, with two children….Some voters were told that Miller was 'unfaithful to his wife with another woman.'....A total of 39 percent say they definitely or probably would vote for him, while 49 percent say they definitely or probably would not vote for him.Another group of voters were told 'Miller created a new, well-paid position on his staff in order to hire an unqualified family member as a favor.'...Only 24 percent definitely or probably would vote for him, with 67 percent who definitely or probably would not." [Quinnipiac]
FEW OPPOSE ACA BECAUSE IT'S 'TOO LIBERAL' - HuffPollster: "Some supporters of the Affordable Care Act claim that polls showing majority opposition to the law are misleading because many of these disapproving Americans really prefer a more liberal alternative. Results of an experimental HuffPost/YouGov survey, however, show that just isn't so.….Just under one-third of the not-liberal-enough opponents (31 percent), for example, want the government to be 'more involved in providing health insurance.' Slightly more (36 percent) want the government to be less involved, with another third either unsure or preferring no change….[R]oughly one-third to one-half of those who oppose the ACA because it is 'not liberal enough' said they would support more expansive government approaches. But at least half did not. The findings are consistent with the way these conflicted Americans described themselves on the YouGov surveys: Just 28 percent called themselves liberal, 39 percent moderate and 18 percent conservative." [HuffPost]
CAN'T GET ENOUGH POLITICAL ADS? - Kantar CMAG put more than 50,000 captured political television ads into one giant interactive graphic. Elizabeth Wilner on what it shows: "Beyond enabling binge-viewing of 50,000+ campaign ads, the Eye reflects a thing or two about how political advertising has evolved—even just within the past two presidential races. Not one ad from the 2012 race exceeded the spot count of any of the 10 most-aired ads of 2008. (The most-aired ad of the 2012 race, an Obama ad attacking GOP nominee Mitt Romney for his “47%” remark, actually ranks 12th overall.) What’s this a reflection of? A smaller battleground in 2012 meant those presidential ads aired across fewer markets, which held down occurrences. But beyond that, the 2012 Obama campaign targeted many of their ads more narrowly, keeping as many as 20 unique commercials on the air at any one time. Many 2012 presidential ads also aired for shorter periods of time than ads in previous races because they were produced to either drive, or take advantage of the news cycle—a growing trend for political ads." [Cook Political, Kantar graphic]
Twitter reactions:
-National Journal's Shane Goldmacher: "You could lose your entire day with CMAG's awesome visualization of every political ad of the last decade." [@ShaneGoldmacher]
-Political scientist Brendan Nyhan: "No meta-data but amazing resource" [@BrendanNyhan]
-GWU political science PhD student Will Cubbison: "This takes the work on Presidential ads and multiplies it by amazing." [@wccubbison]
ANOTHER SURVEY FINDS DROP IN UNINSURED RATE - Katherine Grace Carman and Christine Eibner: "Using a survey fielded by the RAND American Life Panel, we estimate a net gain of 9.3 million in the number of American adults with health insurance coverage from September 2013 to mid-March 2014. The survey, drawn from a small but nationally representative sample, indicates that this significant uptick in insurance coverage has come not only from enrollment in the new marketplaces established under the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but also from new enrollment in employer coverage and Medicaid….This particular survey work—which is ongoing—is known as the RAND Health Reform Opinion Study(RHROS). We match these data with data collected in September 2013 about insurance choices. The results presented here are based on 2,425 adults between the ages of 18 and 64 who responded in both March 2014 and September 2013." [RAND]
'FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE', WITHOUT PARTY LABELS - New polling by PPP (D) for MoveOn released Tuesday finds voters in seven states favor expanding Medicaid and are less likely to vote for politicians who oppose doing so. Unusually, the surveys, which also included horse race questions, didn't identify which party the candidates belonged to. [MoveOn]
Why leave party ID out? PPP's director, Tom Jensen, explains in an email to HuffPost: "That was just how [MoveOn] had it in their draft poll and we left it that way because I don’t think it really matters one way or the other. That’s generally our approach with private client polls unless we think their draft language is going to bias things. The results we found are pretty consistent with what we and most others have found in these races over time. People know what party their Governor or Senator is."
MoveOn communication director Nick Berning, in a separate email: "The answer is that we didn’t want to introduce party ID because we didn’t want party labels to influence folks’ feelings on Medicaid."
WILL KEY DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCIES STAY HOME IN 2014? - A new Greenberg/Womens' Voices Women Vote (D) poll shows the "Rising American Electorate" (unmarried women, young voters, minorities) less likely to vote in 2014 than other Americans. Greg Sargent: "The poll — which was done by Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps for Women’s Voices Women Vote — finds that voters nationwide in the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, young voters, minorities) are significantly less likely to vote in 2014 than other voters (non-RAE voters) are. This is the core of the Dem dilemma: RAE voters are increasingly key to the victorious Dem coalition in national elections, thanks to the diversifying electorate. But they are among the least likely to turn out in midterms, unlike more GOP-aligned non-RAE voters, such as middle-aged and older white males and married women….64 percent of RAE voters who voted in 2012 say they are “almost certain” to vote in 2014. Meanwhile, 79 percent of non-RAE voters from 2012 say they are almost certain to vote this year, a 15 point edge." [WashPost Plum Line, WVWV memo]
Does turnout really doom the Democrats? - Michael McDonald: "I love turnout stories. There is a spooky one being told around Democratic campfires that goes something like this: Democrats will lose big in 2014 when Democrats disappear from the electorate. All good scary stories have an element of truth. Yes, Democratic turnout is comparatively lower than Republicans in midterm elections compared to presidential elections. Yes, Democrats are disadvantaged by this. Yes, Republicans are trying to restrict voting in the names of vote fraud and election uniformity. However, there is a glaring fact, come the light of day: Democrats won in 2006, and the 2006 electorate does not look all that much different than the 2010 electorate….The 2006 Democratic victory thus shows that while lower Democratic turnout in a midterm election is a hurdle, it is one that can be overcome. Planned attempts by Democratic organizations to build a presidential-style field operation to mobilize those who typically drop out in a midterm election can be important to tilting the playing field. However, it is perhaps at least, if not more, important for Democrats to persuade swing voters to support their candidates." [HuffPost]
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TUESDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-The share of mothers who do not work outside the home rose to 29 percent in 2012, up from 23 percent in 1999. [Pew Research]
-Californians still like President Obama. [Field]
-A Talk Business/Hendrix College poll finds Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) 3 points up against rival Tom Cotton. [Talk Business]
-A Voter Survey Service finds the Florida gubernatorial race nearly tied. [Sunshine State News]
-PPP (D) also fielded polls in Michigan and North Carolina. [PPP Michigan toplines, North Carolina toplines]
-Harper (R) finds Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel gaining on Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), although the incumbent still leads. [Harper]
-High Point University finds both Barack Obama and Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) with negative approval ratings among voters. [HPU]
-No, Rand Paul isn't the Republican frontrunner, Andrew Prokop argues. [Vox]
-Gary Langer rounds up recent reports questioning whether "big data" is "the analytical holy grail it’s been made out to be." [ABC News]