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HUFFPOLLSTER: Reviewing The Oklahoma Senate Primary Polls

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LANKFORD
Oklahoma state Rep. T.W. Shannon, left, talks with U.S. Rep. James Lankford, right, following a Republican candidate forum for the open U.S. Senate seat in Lawton, Okla., Friday, June 6, 2014. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki) | ASSOCIATED PRESS

A leader emerges in Oklahoma's upcoming Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Gallup finds five percent of Americans bought insurance through the ACA exchanges. And the American public has some suggestions for Dan Snyder.This is HuffPollster for Monday, June 23, 2014

POLL FINDS LANKFORD GAINING - Nathan Elliott: "James Lankford now has a lead over T.W. Shannon in a heated race to replace Sen. Tom Coburn, according to a News 9/News On 6 poll. The poll, taken June 19-21, shows Lankford with 43.4 percent and Shannon with 34.9 percent, with 13.3 percent of likely Republican voters still undecided. The latest poll indicates Lankford has gained an eight point lead over Shannon since a May 5-10 News 9/News On 6 poll showed the two front-runners nearly tied….A candidate needs to get more than 50 percent of the votes cast in the June 24 primary to avoid a runoff." [News9]

Slightly earlier survey from the same pollster finds a smaller margin - Randy Krehbiel: "Fifth District Congressman James Lankford held a narrow lead over former Oklahoma Speaker of the House T.W. Shannon heading into the final week of their U.S. Senate primary campaign, according to the latest Oklahoma Poll. Lankford led Shannon 41 percent to 38 percent in a survey of 415 likely voters in Tuesday’s election. The survey was conducted June 14-18 by SoonerPoll.com and has a 4.81 percent margin of error." [Tulsa World]

Pollster average shows a close race - HuffPollster's tracking chart incorporates 10 polls: four from groups backing Lankford, three from a group backing Shannon, and three from SoonerPoll. Just one -- an April poll for Shannon -- shows Shannon ahead. The margins, however, vary significantly, with surveys in the last month showing Lankford anywhere from 2 to 22 points ahead.

Sooner Poll calls landline and cell phones - The Sooner poll methodology combines automated (IVR) calls to landlines and live interviewer calls to mobile phones. The poll overhauled its methodology in 2012 to include samples of cell phones in all polls. [Sooner Poll release, methodology]

Past OK primary polls not so accurate - Harry Enten: "The SoonerPoll is the only non-campaign or group-affiliated poll released in the race. Its record is not very good in Republican primaries; it missed the final margin by 18 points in the 2008 Republican presidential primary and by 22 points in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. So even though most polls have Lankford up (including the SoonerPoll by 8 points), a win for his campaign on Tuesday is far from a lock." [538]

MORE ON TOMORROW'S PRIMARIES - Amanda Terkel and Samantha Lachman: "The tea party is getting its best chance to knock off a sitting senator on Tuesday [in Mississippi], when Chris McDaniel faces Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) in the state's GOP primary runoff contest. Voters are heading to the polls in Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, with primary runoff elections happening in Mississippi and South Carolina. The tea party could also pull off an upset in New York's 22nd congressional district, where activists are hoping to unseat Rep. Richard Hanna (R-N.Y.), who is known as one of the more moderate members of the GOP caucus. On the Democratic side, one of the biggest races will be in the blue state of Maryland, where candidates are trotting out their progressive credentials and putting forward policy proposals to create universal prekindergarten classes and legalize marijuana. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) is also facing a challenge from the left, fending off attacks that he's been too friendly to Wall Street." [HuffPost]

FIVE PERCENT OF AMERICANS NEWLY INSURED THROUGH EXCHANGES - Steve Ander and Frank Newport: "Five percent of Americans report being newly insured in 2014. More than half of that group, or 2.8% of the total U.S. population, say they got their new insurance through the health exchanges that were open through mid-April….One catalyst for the individual healthcare mandate was to bring healthy people who otherwise chose not to have health insurance into the healthcare system using the exchanges. However, as was the case in the previous sample, the newly insured using exchanges in the April-June reporting period are less likely than those in the general population to report being in 'very good' or 'excellent' health….The 5% of the adult population who report getting health insurance this year and who did not have it last year is roughly commensurate with the overall drop in the uninsured percentage of the overall population between the third quarter of 2013 and April-May of this year. Still, even after meeting established goals of 8 million enrollees through healthcare.gov and with probable spillover effects into non-exchange-based new enrollments, millions of Americans still are without health insurance: the total percentage of the adult population who are uninsured remains above 13%." [Gallup]

Consistent with Kaiser findings - Flashback to Kaiser Family Foundation findings released on June 19: "The Kaiser Family Foundation Survey of Non-Group Health Insurance Enrollees...reports the views and experience of all non-group enrollees, including those with coverage obtained both inside and outside the Exchanges, and those who were uninsured prior to the ACA as well as those who had a previous source of coverage (non-group or otherwise)...About half of all non-group enrollees now have coverage purchased from a Health Insurance Exchange, and nearly six in ten (57 percent) of those with Exchange coverage were uninsured prior to purchasing their current plan. Most of this previously uninsured group reports having gone without coverage for two years or more, and for many the ACA was a motivator in seeking coverage; seven in ten of those who were uninsured prior to purchasing a Marketplace plan say they decided to buy insurance because of the law, while just over a quarter say they would have gotten it anyway." [KFF]

LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SENDING TROOPS TO IRAQ - HuffPollster: "Americans overwhelmingly oppose sending U.S. troops back into combat in Iraq, but would consider other forms of intervention, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds. Americans weighed in against sending U.S. ground troops to fight in Iraq by a nearly 7 to 1 margin, with 69 percent opposed and 11 percent in favor. Most also are against sending U.S. troops to assist Iraqi army units....A CBS/New York Times poll released Wednesday found that 41 percent of Americans said Obama's response to the violence in Iraq, including the deployment of several hundred military advisers, has been about right. The remainder of those polled were split on whether the president should be doing more or less. Just over half of Republicans thought Obama should intervene further, while 13 percent of Democrats said the same." [HuffPost]

AMERICANS SPLIT ON HOBBY LOBBY CONTRACEPTION CASE - Rachel Lienesch: "Just days before the expected announcement of the Supreme Court's ruling in Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby Stores, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds Americans are divided over whether to require owners of private businesses to pay for their employees' contraceptives....The HuffPost/YouGov poll finds that 44 percent of Americans side with Hobby Lobby, saying that private businesses whose owners object to birth control on religious grounds should not have to provide health care plans that cover the costs of birth control, while 40 percent feel that religious owners of for-profit businesses should have to cover the costs of contraceptives for employees." [HuffPost]

WE'RE STILL ROOTING FOR 'WASHINGTON DEPARTMENT OF FOOTBALL - Emily Swanson and Arthur Delaney: "Most people don't think the Washington Redskins should change the team's name, but if the team ever decides to do the decent thing, Americans favor one alternate name over all others. HuffPost, in partnership with YouGov, surveyed Americans about changing the Washington football team's moniker. A majority said that if they had to pick a new name, they liked 'Washington Warriors' best. But only 21 percent of those polled said that the Redskins should change their name, while 62 percent said they should not." [HuffPost]

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MONDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Chris Christie is gaining on Hillary Clinton in the Iowa presidential race. [Quinnipiac]

-Rand Paul and Ben Carson are Hillary Clinton's closest challengers. [Rasmussen]

-A refresher on helpful polling shorthand -- Ñ: “No, [name of candidate] is not running/can’t run/won’t run, but what if [name of candidate] did/could/would run? Huh?! What then!?” ß: "Hillary Clinton has a 15-point lead against every GOP candidate who isn't Chris Christie." [HuffPost]

-A UNH poll finds the Maine governor's race looking like a dead heat. [Portland Press Herald]

-A final Chism (D) poll on the Mississippi runoff gives Chris McDaniel the lead. [Chism]

-Nate Cohn explains why turnout for the Mississippi runoff may remain high, countering the historical pattern. [NYTimes]

-Morris Fiorina argues, contra the recent Pew Research report, that the United States "as a whole is no more polarized than it was a generation ago." [WashPost]

-Matthew Dickinson says that increased polarization has occurred mostly among "the relatively small world of the politically active." [Politico]

-Glen Bolger (R) notes that a series of government screw-ups has pushed the percentage who want "government to do more" to solve problems below 50 percent. [POS]

-Female voters are more likely to pay attention to the records of female politicians than to those of male politicians. [WashPost]

 
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