CLEVELAND -- All summer, he has reigned over the 2016 Republican field with the volatile command of an unbalanced yet omnipotent Roman emperor, setting the course that a feckless body of toga-clad senators must follow.
That dynamic may be about to change.
At long last, on a debate stage in Cleveland on Thursday night, nine other GOP presidential candidates will have their first opportunity to confront Donald Trump directly and demonstrate to a large national TV audience that the emperor has no clothes.
Trump, who has maintained a consistent and sizable lead over them all in national and early-state polls to date, has built that advantage on his own characteristically bombastic terms. But how he might respond to a particularly devastating attack on the debate stage will say much about whether the Summer of Donald will soon begin to fade.
The voting doesn't begin for another six months, but for GOP contenders like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio -- who are each trying to establish themselves as the main alternative to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- an inclination to rely on the certitude of an impending Trump implosion is proving to be a risky bet.
After all, no one can doubt that Trump has confounded his many critics thus far.
The cartoonishly abrasive New York City real estate tycoon and catchphrase-dispensing reality TV star was largely assumed not to be running before he announced his candidacy in June. Then, he was left on political life support when he called Mexican immigrants "rapists" in his announcement speech. Finally, many pundits thought it was time to hammer the proverbial nail in his coffin when he challenged Arizona Sen. John McCain’s credentials as a war hero.
And yet, here he stands. Incidents that would have destroyed just about any candidate who played by the established rules have only served to fuel Trump’s continued rise.
Trump has created more distance in the polls between himself and the rest of the GOP field in recent weeks, as he has harnessed his own provocations to keep alive a quest for the White House -- which currently seems about as likely to succeed as the efforts to revitalize the floundering Atlantic City casino that bears his name. The buildup to one of the most highly anticipated primary debates in memory also has been among the most controversial, as Fox News is limiting the contest to the top 10 candidates based on a national polling average.
The format will exclude two of the Republican contenders who have fought back against Trump the hardest in recent weeks -- former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) -- a circumstance that could allow the loudest voice in the room to avoid engaging with his GOP rivals in a more heated and personal way than he otherwise might have.
The seven Republican candidates who did not make the cut for the main event will square off in a forum airing earlier in the day. But that affair figures to generate all of the excitement of the little-noticed NIT Tournament when March Madness is about to begin.
The real winnowing of the Republican field begins at 9 p.m. EST on Fox News.
Though he will stand at the debate stage’s most coveted middle podium, Trump is far from the only legitimate contender in the first major showdown on the path to determining which Republican will become the party standard-bearer and earn the responsibility of trying to win back the White House for the first time in eight years.
Bush has perhaps the trickiest task in front of him, as he vies to appeal to more of the deeply conservative voters who come out in droves during GOP primary season, while also retaining an inclusive message and air of viability as a general election winner.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich -- the last candidate to make the cut for the debate in his home state -- may try to knock the party establishment leader off of his pedestal and present himself as a competent, broadly appealing executive unburned by the baggage of the Bush name.
A national debating champion during his college days, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz figures to be polished and poised but must also find a way to stand out among the array of grassroots favorites like Walker, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), all of whom figure to find themselves in an existential struggle to win the Iowa caucuses next winter.
And then there is New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the man whom many Republicans begged to run in 2012 and is now struggling merely to get into the mix, amid a host of problems back home, poll numbers in the low single digits, and -- perhaps for the first time in his life -- a persistent problem of making his voice heard.
The early debates were among the most impactful elements in narrowing the field during the last Republican nominating fight. In that race, media-anointed contenders like Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman hesitated and wavered in obscurity, while long-shots like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum used the format to elevate themselves into real threats to frontrunner and eventual nominee Mitt Romney.
Any presidential debate -- particularly one featuring so many viable candidates -- is bound to be unpredictable. And that is why so much will be at stake when the stage lights go on in Cleveland on Thursday night.