This week, the Daily Beast’s Michael Tomasky posed one of those pre-primary questions that’s actually worth considering: “Can Marco Rubio even win a primary?” And, yeah: with all the attendant hype and hope around Rubio, the big talk and the big donors, it’s easy to lose sight of the fact that sooner or later, it’s about winning elections. The thing is -- this applies to everyone in what’s been a gigantic field. Where are you going to win? And when? And if you have no idea how to answer these questions, what are you doing staying in the race?
So, a reality check is in order. Here’s ours.
RANK | CANDIDATE | |
---|---|---|
MARCO RUBIO We’ve been hearing it for weeks. “Rubio is the favorite of the establishment.” “Rubio is the favorite of donors.” Okay, we buy it. Where is his first primary win, though? Oh, don’t everyone back out of the room like that! If he’s not won one by Florida... he’d better win Florida. Or he could end up being the Rudy Giuliani of 2016. By the time the former mayor got to the “Florida firewall,” he was toast. | ||
TED CRUZ The developing conventional wisdom is that Cruz is the “real” Donald Trump if Donald Trump isn’t the real Donald Trump. He is the “professional” shadow government in the Trump primary. | ||
BERNIE SANDERS We agree that the notion that “Sanders lacks electability” is probably a bit overcooked -- if not overblown. But the underdog has to take a first step toward proving that -- in Iowa. | ||
HILLARY CLINTON We know how she feels -- she trashed Iowa in one of those released emails. But Hillary got the late-deciders in New Hampshire to break her way in dramatic fashion in 2008, anything less could be problematic. | ||
DONALD TRUMP Trump’s no traditionalist. That’s why the rubber hits the road early for him, in Iowa. The theory is that his hardened support isn’t just hot air, it’s an anti-insider, against-politics-as-usual movement that will hit the polls. Whether it does or not in Iowa will determine the difference between hype and hypothesis. | ||
BEN CARSON As long as the guys running your fundraising empire can keep minting money from your name, does it really matter if you win a primary? | ||
JEB BUSH What’s the least humiliating way out at this point? Follow through and lose a string primaries with dignity? Or get out now? | ||
CHRIS CHRISTIE To preserve the dignity of the Union-Leader, if nothing else, you have to win New Hampshire. You called the trick shot. You gotta make it. | ||
RAND PAUL We don’t know where he wins a primary...but he’d better last long enough to make it to the Kentucky caucuses, which he strong-armed the state GOP into having the first week of March instead of having a primary in May -- and for which he’s promised to cover the cost. Maybe he’ll decide to pack it in early and save the money for his 2016 Senate re-election race. | ||
MARTIN O'MALLEY Dude, if you actually win the Iowa caucuses, or even finish second, we will be forced to delete from the Huffington Post archive all of the digital snark we have laid on you lo these many months. |
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Already contributed? Log in to hide these messages.