Ahead of the Iowa Caucuses, Donald Trump is being schlonged with a discrimination suit. Paul Ryan and Barack Obama are going to have lunch and bond over both being 6'1" and 165 pounds. And the World Health Organization called the Zika virus a public health emergency, something that could’ve been avoided if the Zika virus had listened to its consultants and endorsed ethanol subsidies and upped its Polk county GOTV effort. This is HUFFPOST HILL for Monday, February 1st, 2016:
OH CRAP, THE CAUCUSES ARE HERE - Our long national corn-based nightmare is almost over. Ryan Grim: "If Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump comes out on top in Iowa, it will be the first time that millions of people waking up on Tuesday morning seriously think of those men as presidential material. (The shock to the global audience, particularly if Trump wins, will be off the scale.)... Sanders comes out on top in Iowa and follows it up with a win in New Hampshire, where he's well ahead, all of a sudden he becomes a viable candidate, and the firewall could be snuffed out...Nate Cohn, writing in The New York Times, noticed this weekend that poor and working-class white voters have been shifting toward Sanders and away from Clinton, an unusual pattern in a Democratic primary. If whites who often vote for the more conservative Democrat were moving his way, Cohn wrote, 'the assumption that Mrs. Clinton will easily maintain her strength among nonwhite voters may be shakier than once thought.'" [HuffPost]
It's after the caucuses so no one cares: "In Polk County, the National Weather Service upgraded a previous winter storm watch to a winter storm warning at about 4:30 a.m. Monday. The warning begins at midnight Tuesday and runs through 6 a.m. Wednesday. The latest snowfall projections Monday afternoon called for 6 to 10 inches in central Iowa, with a foot or more expected north and west of the metro area. However, some forecasts are calling for periods of rain mixed in with the snowfall by Tuesday afternoon." [Des Moines Register]
HuffPollster's polling average shows a super close race between Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side and a not-as-close one between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
HOW VOTERS WOULD INTERPRET A HILLARY LOSS - Ariel Edwards-Levy: "Monday's Iowa caucuses won't enshrine any presidential nominees quite yet -- just ask former victors Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Tom Harkin. But the results will affect how the candidates are perceived by the rest of the nation, which is increasingly starting to tune into the race. On the Democratic side, a new HuffPost/YouGov poll finds that a Bernie Sanders win would be considered a major milestone for him, but not a significant failure for Hillary Clinton. Sanders, who currently trails Clinton by about 3 points in HuffPost's polling average, would likely need record turnout to win. A 52 percent majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say that Sanders winning in Iowa would be a sign that he's a serious challenger to win the Democratic nomination, while just 37 percent say it would be a temporary victory for his campaign." [HuffPost]
TRUMP WILL BE GREAT FOR THE WOMEN - Or not. Libby Nelson: "A former organizer for Donald Trump in Iowa formally accused the campaign of gender discrimination, filing a complaint that men working on the campaign are paid more and allowed to plan and speak at rallies while women are not. The organizer, Elizabeth Davidson, a part-time employee, was characterized in the New York Times on January 13 as 'one of the campaign’s most effective organizers.' Davidson had opened the campaign's second field office in Iowa and recruited captains in nearly all its precincts, reporter Trip Gabriel wrote, while most of Trump's campaign was 'amateurish and halting, committing basic organizing errors.' The day after the Times article appeared, Davidson was fired. Although the article only quoted Davidson encouraging a prospective volunteer, the Trump campaign told her she had made disparaging comments in the press and broken a nondisclosure agreement." [Vox]
Jen Bendery polled an Iowa gay bar, couldn't find a consensus.
BOOM! A TRUMP PRESIDENCY WOULD INSTANTLY SHRINK GOVERNMENT - This is silly but we like it. Amanda Terkel: "If Donald Trump becomes president, a considerable chunk of the federal workforce might quit. Fourteen percent of government workers in a new Government Business Council/GovExec.com survey said they would 'definitely' consider leaving their jobs if the GOP front-runner wins. Another 11 percent said they would 'maybe' do so. Democrats, not surprisingly, were significantly more likely to say they would leave." [HuffPost]
Wendy Davis confesses mistakes from her failed gubernatorial bid on Candidate Confessional.
DELANEY DOWNER - Ugh, the Zika: "The World Health Organization declared a "public health emergency of international concern" on Monday morning due to the clusters of microcephaly and other neurological abnormalities that may be caused by Zika virus. This designation, also known as PHEIC, has only been applied to three other illnesses in the past -- most recently to Ebola during the 2014 to 2015 outbreak in West Africa. The determination is intended to mobilize an international response to combat mosquito-borne Zika virus, which has spread throughout Central and South America and the Caribbean and is suspected to be the cause of a sharp rise in birth defects in Brazil." [HuffPost]
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DEMS SEE OPENING FOR CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM - Shorter version: because now it's affecting middle-to-upper class white people. Laura Barron-Lopez: "The first words Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) spoke at the Democrats' annual issues conference here addressed the death of Freddie Gray in police custody and the massive unrest that followed…This year, Democrats see a window opening to address two major symptoms of that struggle: the harm caused by mandatory minimum sentencing and America’s addiction to heroin. Both are problems cities like Baltimore have grappled with for decades. A reform of the strict sentencing laws that led to overpopulation of America’s prisons has a real chance of moving in Congress this year. And heroin’s infiltration of rural and suburban towns is bringing to the table lawmakers who previously dismissed the need for sentencing reform, afraid they’d appear too soft on crime. 'As sad as the circumstances are that created the aligning of these stars, the stars are aligned for change,' Cummings, who represents Baltimore, told The Huffington Post at the end of the three-day retreat." [HuffPost]
BROS TO MASTICATE - Has there ever been such a high power Washington meeting between two dudes who, in a different universe, might otherwise be meeting at Clarendon's Liberty Tavern after a workout? Jordan Fabian: "President Obama is asking Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) to stick around for lunch on Tuesday after their first formal meeting together. Obama will dine with Ryan in the White House’s private dining room after they meet with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in the Oval Office, press secretary Josh Earnest said Monday…. The president plans to discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership, criminal justice reform, the White House’s cancer 'moonshot' and Puerto Rico’s debt crisis in his meeting with the two leaders, according to Earnest." [The Hill]
GET READY FOR A LOT MORE OF THESE STORIES - And a healthy number of "Run, Mike, run!" ones, too. Alex Isenstadt: "With the GOP political class growing increasingly worried that insurgents Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are becoming hard to stop, some in the party say the time is near for three lagging establishment hopefuls --Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich -- to reassess their candidacies and help the party unite around one contender. The most widely talked-about scenario is that the establishment lane will narrow to Marco Rubio, who polls show has the most support among the mainstream candidates. The Florida senator spent his final campaign appearances here presenting himself as the lone figure who can unite the Republican Party and defeat the Democratic nominee." [Politico]
And a lot more of these stories: "If Donald Trump ends up on stage this July formally accepting the GOP presidential nomination, don’t be surprised if everyone from Washington Republicans to Twitter conservatives gathers outside the convention arena in Cleveland to burn Mike Murphy in effigy… The campaign waged by Murphy has been, by turns, vicious, strange, and comically ineffectual -- but always expensive. With Jeb flatlining in national polls, the group has blown through at least 60% of its $118 million -- and developed, along the way, a blooper reel of widely mocked stunts." [BuzzFeed's McKay Coppins and Christopher Massie]
BECAUSE YOU'VE READ THIS FAR - Here's a baby sloth.
SOROS THROWS MONEY AT HILLARY - Ken Vogel: "George Soros in December donated $6 million to the leading super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, marking the return of the billionaire financier as among the biggest givers in all of American politics. The massive check brings to $8 million the Hungarian-born investor's total 2015 giving to pro-Clinton groups….Soros is seen as a bellwether among rich Democrats. He is one of the few liberals who has shown a willingness to drop eight-figures in an election cycle, having donated more than $20 million in 2004 to groups that tried to oust then-President George W. Bush. After the failure of that effort, Soros dialed back his big-money political spending." [Politico]
COMFORT FOOD
- Corgis know how to get dry
- Americans will eat 1.3 billion chicken wings this Sunday
TWITTERAMA
@JeffYoung: I took a class on political parties as an undergrad 22 years ago. Please tell all the cable news bookers you know.
@pourmecoffee: Fun Game: Do you own caucus at work! Everyone stand with candidates they support and form deep, lasting resentments that destroy teams.
@emmaroller: TV host: so what should we be paying attention to tonight?
me: "well, it all comes down to turnout."
host: great here is $100,000 for u
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