Donald Trump’s support went from a niche group of unhappy voters to a majority of Republicans. Americans trust Trump on the economy, but would rather see Hillary Clinton in charge of foreign policy. And Brexit polls might be shifting toward “remain in the European Union” in the final days before Thursday’s referendum. This is HuffPollster for Monday, June 20, 2016.
HOW TRUMP WENT FROM HERO OF THE DISAFFECTED TO NOMINEE - Benjy Sarlin: “Today, a description of who supports Trump is simple enough: Republicans. In the final seven races before party leaders crowned Trump the presumptive nominee, he took every county save for six, while winning almost every demographic slice of GOP voters….[T]here are a lot of voters… who warmed to Trump gradually. In a March 2015 NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey, 74 percent of Republican voters said they could not imagine supporting Trump. The number was only marginally better, at 66 percent, when he launched his campaign that June. By April of 2016, however, the number had plummeted to 38 percent. By the time the primary race ended, Trump also drew close to 50 percent support from GOP primary voters in national polls. It wasn’t always that way: For almost all of 2015, he polled in the mid-20s, leading many Republicans to speculate that there was a ceiling to his support….The story of Trump, then, is about a committed minority of Republican voters, whose existence was routinely ignored, gradually taking over the entire party. As you’ll see in our data, the people who backed Trump early on – and the places they live – were markedly different than the unified GOP bloc he commands now.” [NBC]
IN A DO-OVER OF THE GOP PRIMARY, TRUMP WOULD STILL WIN - HuffPollster: "Plenty of Republican and Republican-leaning voters are less than thrilled with their presumptive nominee. While 44 percent consider him the best option out of this year’s pool of candidates, an equal 44 percent say he wasn’t the best choice, according to the survey, which was taken June 7-9. But just like the first time around, the opposition to Trump remains hopelessly divided. Asked who they would most like to see as the nominee if they could start the primary from scratch, 29 percent picked Trump and 15 percent picked Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). Ohio Gov. John Kasich took 9 percent, followed by former neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent each. The rest of the pack failed to make it past 5 percent." [HuffPost]
TRUMP HAS HAD A ROUGH MONTH IN NATIONAL POLLING - Philip Bump: "Not only are Trump's poll numbers slipping, they are at a low that no one, Republican or Democrat, has seen in the past three election cycles. Looking at the window of time between 200 and 100 days before each of those elections, you can see that Trump has consistently polled worse than George W. Bush in 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. He caught up briefly after clinching the GOP nomination — and then sank again. The margin by which he trails Hillary Clinton now mirrors McCain's deficit to Barack Obama in 2008. McCain rebounded after the Republican convention — but it's important to remember that we're comparing Trump to the worst Republican performance in a general election since 1996. There's every reason to think that those numbers will get worse. Trump essentially has no campaign at this point; there's no sign that he has started staffing up significantly." [WashPost]
REPUBLICANS THINK TRUMP’S AGENDA IS DIFFERENT FROM TYPICAL GOP GOALS - Mark Blumenthal: “When Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan announced his support for Donald Trump in early June, he expressed confidence that Trump would advance Republican priorities….For better or worse, however, the Republican rank and file sees Trump advancing a unique agenda. In SurveyMonkey’s latest Election Tracking poll, only a third (34%) of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents agree that Trump ‘wants to accomplish the same things as most Republicans.’ Nearly two-thirds (63%) say Trump ‘wants to accomplish very different things than most Republicans.’” [SurveyMonkey]
VOTERS TRUST TRUMP ON ECONOMY; CLINTON ON FOREIGN POLICY - Dana Blanton:"More American voters trust Donald Trump to do a better job than Hillary Clinton on the issue most say will decide their vote this year: the economy. But, Clinton tops Trump in other key areas, including foreign policy -- and nuclear weapons. That’s according to a new Fox News national poll on top issues in the 2016 election. Relatively few voters, 26 percent, feel they’re better off now compared to before President Barack Obama took office. So it should be no surprise about four voters in 10 -- Democrats and Republicans alike -- say the economy will be the issue that decides their vote for president (39 percent). No other issue comes close. Here’s how the others rank: 14 percent say national security will be most important in their vote, 10 percent each for education and health care, and 8 percent each for immigration and social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. Voters trust Trump to do a better job on the top two. He bests Clinton by 12 points on both the economy (53-41 percent) and terrorism (52-40 percent). Meanwhile, Clinton has the edge on social issues (+12 points), education (+10), foreign policy (+10), health care (+3), and immigration (+2)." [Fox News]
'REMAIN' COULD BE GAINING MOMENTUM IN BREXIT POLLS - William James: "Three opinion polls ahead of Thursday's vote showed the 'Remain' camp recovering some momentum, although the overall picture remained one of an evenly split electorate. The killing of Jo Cox, [a lawmaker supportive of the EU membership and] a 41-year-old mother of two young children, shocked Britain, raised questions about the tone of campaigning and could yet prove a defining moment in what is Britain's biggest political decision for decades. The only opinion poll fully carried out since the killing showed support for 'In' at 45 percent, ahead of 'Out' on 42 percent - a reversal of the 3-point lead the pollster, Survation, showed for 'Out' in a poll conducted on Wednesday….Two other polls published on Saturday showed the 'Remain' campaign had regained its lead over 'Leave', while another showed the two camps running neck and neck. But pollsters said most of these surveys were carried out before Thursday's attack and thus did not reflect the full impact of the event." [Reuters]
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MONDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Democrats feel more optimistic about the 2016 race than Republicans do. [Gallup]
-Polls suggest that Donald Trump's attack on a Hispanic federal judge may have soured voters on him. [WSJ]
-Americans' Google searches show they think of Jeff Sessions and Elizabeth Warren as possible vice presidential picks. [WashPost]
-David Wasserman explains why it would be difficult for Democrats to take the House in 2016. [538]
-More than seven in ten Americans express confidence in the U.S. military. [Gallup]
-Jared Bernstein criticizes two proposed amendments to a bill that threaten the U.S. Census. [WashPost]
