Ex-Soviet Georgia could start a gradual drift back into the orbit of its former overlord Russia if it does not see tangible signs soon that it will be invited to join NATO.
Georgian officials will be at a NATO summit in the Polish capital on Friday where they will be seeking assurances that the alliance will make good on the promise it delivered in 2008 that Georgia would eventually become a member.
But the alliance has hesitated to give Tbilisi a timetable for accession because some members are wary of angering Russia. In the meantime, NATO invited the tiny Balkan state of Montenegro to join, leaving some Georgians feeling jilted.
Georgia’s leaders are still committed to joining NATO. Opinion polls show the public backs membership, in part because they see the alliance as protection from Russia, which sent troops into Georgia six years ago and backs two separatist regions which reject Tbilisi’s rule.
However, as frustration builds over the slow progress towards accession, there are more and more voices who say Georgia should cut its losses and seek rapprochement with Moscow instead.
“How did the West help us? Did NATO help us during the war? No. Russia is our neighbor, strong and influential. I’m afraid there may be another war if we irritate Russia further with our talk that we want to become a NATO member,” said Avtandil Maisuradze, a 69-year-old pensioner in Tbilisi.
Georgia is a test case for how Western governments will treat Ukraine, which, like Georgia, wants to join NATO and the European Union but is also jealously regarded by the Kremlin as part of its sphere of influence.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, on a visit to Tbilisi this week before he travels to the NATO summit, urged Georgians to be patient.
“I wouldn’t view this as a moment of despair, moment of setback, I would view this as a continuing process,” Kerry said.
NATO continues to say Georgia is on a path to membership. The alliance has opened a training center in Georgia as a part of a package of measures to boost Georgia’s defense capabilities, and Georgia takes part in joint exercises with troops from NATO member states.
But for some Georgians, anything short of a timetable for accession is not enough.
“The frustration is widespread, as the false expectations on fast track NATO integration created by the political elites did not materialize,” said Kornely Kakachia, a director of the Georgian Institute of Politics.
Opinion polls conducted by the National Democratic Institute show steady growth in support for Georgia joining the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union — up to 20 percent in March 2016 from 11 percent in August 2013.
Political forces that are openly pro-Russian have a good chance of winning seats the Georgian parliament in an election to take place in October this year - something that was unimaginable few years ago.
In local elections in 2014, several pro-Russian parties, including the Alliance of Patriots and the Democratic Movement, between them received around 20 percent of the nationwide proportional vote.
Nino Burjanadze, the leader of Democratic Movement, which is campaigning on giving Georgia neutral “non-bloc status”, said disillusionment with NATO membership was helping boost her support.
Burjanadze used to be a senior ally of former president Mikheil Saakashvili, who set Georgia on its pro-Western path. But she since changed tack. She visited Moscow for talks with Russian officials three times over the past year.
“The Georgian authorities and a significant part of the country’s political elite act pursuant to the interests of NATO and the United States, instead of in Georgia’s interests,” said Burjanadze.
(Additional reporting by Robin Emmott in Brussels; Editing by Christian Lowe and Richard Balmforth)
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.