Hillary Clinton holds an edge over Donald Trump in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado. Trump’s likely vice presidential pick is unknown to a vast majority of voters. And Americans don’t trust Trump to fix Obamacare. This is HuffPollster for Friday, July 15, 2016.
CLINTON LEADS IN FOUR SWING STATE POLLS - Mark Murray: “Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in four of the most diverse presidential battleground states, according to brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. In Colorado, Clinton is ahead of Trump by eight points among registered voters, 43 percent to 35 percent; a combined 21 percent say neither, other or are undecided. In Florida, which decided the 2000 presidential election, she’s up seven points, 44 percent to 37 percent; the rest are undecided or prefer someone else. In North Carolina, a state Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012, Clinton leads by six points, 44 percent to 38 percent. And in Virginia, Clinton’s advantage is nine points, 44 percent to 35 percent….Despite Clinton’s leads, she and Trump are both unpopular in these battlegrounds, although Trump is slightly more unpopular.” [NBC]
The HuffPost Pollster models show Clinton leading in all four states - Clinton seems to have a solid lead in Virginia. Earlier polling showed closer margins, so the HuffPost Pollster model has Clinton up by about 5 points, 43 percent to Trump’s 38 percent. The same is true in Colorado ― recent polling shows substantial leads for Clinton, but the HuffPost Pollster model is a little more conservative due to earlier polls, putting her up by 5 points. The new North Carolina poll, which is the first survey in the state this month, pulls Clinton a bit farther ahead in the HuffPost Pollster model, which now shows her leading Trump by 3 points. In Florida, the picture is less clear. In contrast to the latest results, four earlier polls from late June through early July showed Trump leads of 2-5 points. The HuffPost Pollster model has Clinton up by 2 points, taking 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.
VOTERS SEE LITTLE TO LIKE ABOUT CLINTON, TRUMP - Pew Research: “A new national survey finds that when voters are asked to ‘check the box’ on words and phrases describing Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, relatively small percentages express positive views of either presidential candidate.....Both Clinton and Trump are viewed more positively by voters who support them in the general election than those who do not. Even among their supporters, however, views of the candidates are not all that positive….Only about a third of voters who favor Clinton in a general election contest against Trump indicate that Clinton ‘has deeply held beliefs’ (34%), is ‘someone you admire’ (34%) and ‘can unite the country’ (33%)....Trump’s supporters are even less positive about their candidate than Clinton’s backers are about theirs. There is no positive trait that a majority of Trump supporters ascribe to their candidate….Voters are broadly skeptical that, if elected, Clinton or Trump would achieve progress on major issues facing the country.” [Pew]
VOTERS EXPECT HILLARY CLINTON TO WIN - Samantha Neal: “Donald Trump has recently been gaining ground in the latest polls at both the national and state level, suggesting that the email scandal plaguing Hillary Clinton has not left her unscathed. However, when polls ask voters who they think will win the election rather than whom they plan to vote for, people overwhelmingly believe Clinton will prevail….In fact, she currently polls better than President Barack Obama did against Mitt Romney and John McCain at this point in 2012 and 2008, on both whom voters expect to win and whom they plan to cast their ballot for….Questions that measure voter expectations are often more accurate at predicting a winner than asking people which candidate they will vote for….The merit of the expectations question has been researched extensively by David Rothschild and Justin Wolfers, who argue that asking people whom they expect will win instead of whom they prefer ‘grabs a much larger slice of people’s experience and knowledge, including a whole range of idiosyncratic facts’ that are otherwise impossible to quantify.” [HuffPost]
MIKE PENCE, TRUMP’S LIKELY VP PICK, IS LARGELY UNKNOWN TO VOTERS - HuffPollster: “Presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump’s options for his running mate were, as one headline writer put it, a choice between ‘the unpopular or the unknown.’ His reported pick for vice president, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, manages to combine the two. Pence remains basically an unknown outside his home state of Indiana. While 5 percent of American voters rate him favorably and 8 percent rate him unfavorably, 86 percent don’t have any opinion of the governor at all, according to a July CBS survey. Just 7 percent of Republican Party voters view him favorably, while 6 percent have a negative opinion and the rest are unsure….In 2013, Pence was generally well-liked by Indiana residents, scoring a 52 percent favorable rating in a poll from Howey Politics Indiana. Then his ratings slid precipitously in the wake of a national controversy over the state’s ‘religious freedom’ law, which would have allowed businesses to refuse service to LGBT customers on religious grounds. An April 2015 HPI poll found his favorable rating down to just 35 percent.” [HuffPost]
AMERICANS DON’T LIKE OBAMACARE, BUT DON’T TRUST TRUMP TO FIX IT - Jeffrey Young: “Voters trust Hillary Clinton and other Democrats more than Donald Trump and Republicans when it comes to health care ― even though more Americans still dislike Obamacare than like it, a new poll shows....When it comes to health care, 46 percent of voters believe Clinton’s views are closer to their own, compared to 32 percent for Trump and 15 percent who don’t think either candidate represents them on the issue, according to Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation survey results released Friday. The responses were predictably partisan, although Clinton beats Trump among independents 39 percent to 30 percent. This is despite the continuing lukewarm view the public has of the Affordable Care Act, a law enacted while Clinton served in Obama’s cabinet that passed Congress solely on Democratic votes. Like the results of other health care questions, views on Obamacare tilt heavily partisan. Overall, 46 percent of those surveyed view the ACA unfavorably compared to 40 percent who view it favorably.” [HuffPost]
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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Americans are more likely to think they’d personally benefit from a Hillary Clinton White House than one run by Donald Trump. [AP]
-A Harvard Institute of Politics survey finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by nearly two to one among millennials. [Harvard]
-Hillary Clinton is seen as less honest and trustworthy than she was a month ago. [HuffPost]
-Donald Trump takes zero percent among black swing-state voters in a new survey of key states. [HuffPost]
-Margie Omero (D) analyzes whether vice presidential matchups make a difference to voters. [HuffPost]
-Joel Benenson (D), the Clinton campaign’s chief strategist, predicts a close race in battleground states. [WashPost]