The Trump campaign is getting less-than-rave reviews. Americans’ preferences on immigration policy are divided. And there’s no consensus on how gender is affecting Hillary Clinton’s chances. This is HuffPollster for Friday, August 26, 2016.
CLINTON’S CAMPAIGN ADVANTAGES ARE APPARENT TO VOTERS - Jon Reid: “Hillary Clinton has run a better presidential campaign than GOP rival Donald Trump, according to a majority of voters in a new Morning Consult poll. The national survey, conducted after the Trump campaign’s third major leadership change this year, shows that 51 percent of voters say Clinton’s campaign is performing better overall….Broken down by political party, a majority of Republicans (54 percent) and Democrats (79 percent) say their party’s respective nominee has run a better campaign. But the difference between the two parties is significant. A small majority of Republican voters say the Trump campaign is doing well, while most Democrats are happy with their nominee’s campaign. Only 8 percent of Democrats say Trump’s campaign is doing better than Clinton’s.” [Morning Consult]
Trump could be leaving votes on the table by not campaigning well - John Sides: “Trump is being vastly outspent in advertising and is limited essentially to whatever field organization the Republican National Committee can provide — which will be exceeded by Hillary Clinton’s, much as Romney’s was exceeded by Obama’s. How much will this cost him on Election Day? Probably the best estimate comes from a recently published piece by political scientists Ryan Enos and Anthony Fowler. They show that the effect of the 2012 presidential campaign on voter turnout was quite large, about 7-8 points overall.” [WashPost]
MANY AMERICANS SUPPORT BORDER CONTROL AND A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP - Pew Research: “The public is divided over many aspects of U.S. immigration policy. However, when asked about the priorities for policy toward illegal immigration, more Americans say better border security and a path to citizenship should be given equal priority than favor either approach individually. The new national survey, conducted August 9-16 among 2,010 adults, also finds that a large majority (76%) says that undocumented immigrants are as hard-working and honest as U.S. citizens, while 67% say they are no more likely than citizens to commit serious crimes…. Overall, 29% of the public prioritizes ‘creating a way for immigrants already here illegally to become citizens if they meet certain requirements,’ while (24%) say the focus should be on ‘better border security and stronger enforcement of immigration laws.’ However, when given the option, a 45% plurality does say that both should be given equal priority.” [Pew]
Trump supporters generally favor tougher enforcement - Carroll Doherty: “Nearly half (48%) of Trump supporters say the priority for policy to deal with illegal immigration should be stronger law enforcement and better border security. Just 10% say the priority should be creating a way for undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet certain requirements. But about four-in-ten (41%) say both of these approaches should be given equal priority. When Trump voters who give equal priority to both are asked to choose just one, a majority overall comes down on the side of stronger law enforcement and better border security: 78% say this should be the priority, compared with just 19% who prioritize a path to citizenship for those in the U.S. illegally. Among Clinton supporters, opinions are nearly reversed: 80% say a path to citizenship should be the priority, while 19% prioritize tougher law enforcement and better border security.” [Pew]
AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON HOW GENDER AFFECTS CLINTON’S CHANCES - Catherine Lucey and Emily Swanson: “According to a new poll from the Associated-Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, most Americans see [Hillary] Clinton’s gender playing a role in the campaign, with 37 percent saying her gender will help her chances of being elected president, 29 percent arguing it will hurt her, and 33 percent thinking it won’t make a difference….Overall, 75 percent of Americans say they think men and women make equally good political leaders, while 17 percent think men make better leaders and 7 percent say women do. Still, about a quarter of Americans, including nearly half of Republicans and more than half of Americans who have a favorable view of Donald Trump, think a female president would not be tough enough to handle a military crisis or a terrorist attack. Men and women are about equally likely to say a woman is tough enough to handle those scenarios facing a president….Despite gains made by women in elected office, just over half of Americans say gender discrimination remains a problem for women in politics, while about 3 in 10 feel the opportunities are about the same. About 2 in 10 think women have more opportunities.” [AP]
POLLING MODE AFFECTS CLINTON’S NUMBERS, NOT TRUMP’S - HuffPollster: “In telephone polls conducted by live interviewers, Clinton averages an 11-point lead over Trump in the HuffPost Pollster average. She’s approaching 50 percent, whereas Trump is struggling below 40 percent. These polls are averaging only 5.5 percent undecided and 4.4 percent for other candidates. Polls conducted either online or using automated voice technology over the telephone, without a real person on the other end of the line, tell a different story. In these polls, Clinton averages just under 44 percent support, a 5-point drop from the live telephone polls, while Trump loses less than 1 percentage point, still sitting at about 38 percent. That 5 percent who supported Clinton in live telephone polls, but not in these other polls, seems to have gone to the ‘undecided’ column. In online and automated phone polls, undecideds increase by 5 percent, growing to over 10 percent of voters….Since it’s Clinton’s support that increases when undecideds are pushed in live telephone surveys, the polls indicate that undecided voters tend to lean more in Clinton’s direction.” [HuffPost]
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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Nate Silver looks at what we know about Hillary Clinton’s margins in blue states. [538]
-A majority of voters think Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson should participate in the presidential debates. [The Hill]
-Some GOP operatives are concerned about the weakness of Donald Trump’s data operation. [Yahoo]
-Mingnan Liu describes an experiment on listing different combinations of candidates in the Republican primary polls. [SurveyMonkey]