We did it, everybody. We made it to the final debate of the presidential campaign. After the sheer absurdity of the past few weeks, we weren’t sure the debate was actually going to happen. But now, all we have to do is make it through an hour and a half of whatever is about to unfold in Las Vegas. And then through the 19 days until the actual election. And then through the ― oh please, sweet meteor of death, take us already.
Anyway, all of this madness got us thinking. Could literally anything happen on Wednesday night? As polls show GOP nominee Donald Trump with an ever-shrinking chance of winning on Nov. 8, has he completely run out of f***s to give? Will Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lose her cool? How likely are we to see the debate devolve into complete chaos?
To obtain some semi-serious answers to these questions, we turned to the expert oddsmakers at OddsShark. OddsShark is an information site, and doesn’t actually set lines or accept bets. It typically aggregates odds from sports books in Las Vegas and overseas, and uses them to write up advice for bettors.
It has, for example, compiled a list of real prop bets available for Wednesday night’s debate: What color will Hillary Clinton’s jacket be? Who will be the first to interrupt the other? How many times will Trump say “rig” or “rigged”? (For the uninitiated, a prop or proposition bet is a side wager on something not directly related to the outcome of the game ― or in this case, debate.)
We thought those bets were a bit tame, so we asked OddsShark to put its experience to work probing some less likely, though not impossible, scenarios. Like this:
Will one of the candidates walk off the stage during the debate?
Yes +10000
No -4000
That means a hypothetical $100 bet on “yes” would win you $10,000 if Trump were to say “screw it,” flip over his lectern and storm off the stage. That also means you’d have to bet $4,000 on “no” to win $100 if both candidates remain on stage and make us suffer through the entire 90-minute ordeal. OddsShark clearly thinks it highly improbable that either nominee will abandon ship mid-debate. We’ll see about that.
Keep in mind, these aren’t real lines. No betting websites that we know of will accept wagers on these bets ― although we guess we can’t stop you from doing whatever you want with your friends.
These figures, however, are an unofficial marker of how likely seasoned oddsmakers believe the following scenarios are. It’s hard to imagine this exercise being taken seriously in any other election, but this is 2016 and nothing really surprises us anymore.
Will either of the candidates bring a previously unannounced guest (not including President Barack Obama’s half-brother or a woman who recently accused Bill Clinton of sexually assaulting her in the 1980s or anyone else whose attendance is reported before the debate)?
No -150
Yes +250
How long will the silence last between the moderator’s introduction and the candidates’ entrance?
OVER 60 seconds +500
UNDER 60 seconds -500
How many times will Trump sniffle?
OVER 19.5 times -110
UNDER 19.5 times -110
Will either of the candidates use a swear word?
Yes +900
No -1100
Will Trump say “build the wall” or some version of that phrase?
Yes -180
No +140
Will there be any other physical contact, not including a possible handshake?
Yes +1000
No -1100
How many times will Trump say “believe me”?
OVER 2.5 times -110
UNDER 2.5 times -110
Will Trump say the word “conspiracy”?
Yes +350
No -600
Will Clinton use Michelle Obama’s “when they go low, we go high” line again?
Yes +300
No -650
Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims — 1.6 billion members of an entire religion — from entering the U.S.