Democrats have become less enthusiastic about their party’s future. Pollsters disagree on how Latinos voted in the presidential election. And California’s Field Poll shuts down after 70 years. This is HuffPollster for Tuesday, December 13, 2016.
DEMOCRATS AREN’T TOO EXCITED ABOUT THEIR PARTY’S FUTURE - HuffPollster: “Democrats are not feeling especially rosy about their party’s path forward, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey released Sunday finds. Just 13 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they’re enthusiastic about their party’s future, compared to 35 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters who say they are enthusiastic about the outlook for the GOP. Fifty-one percent of the Democratic group say they’re at least satisfied about the outlook for their party, with 25 percent saying they’re dissatisfied and 13 percent that they’re upset. Among the Republican group, 71 percent say they are at least satisfied, with 16 percent dissatisfied and 6 percent upset. The results mark a significant sea change since August, when, coming off of both parties’ conventions, Democrats were far more optimistic. In a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted at that time, Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters were 28 points likelier than Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 71 percent to 43 percent, to say they were at least satisfied with their party’s future.” [HuffPost]
Views of the nominees have changed - More from HuffPollster: “Hindsight has also changed the way each party feels about their presidential nominees. Just 41 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters now say Hillary Clinton was the Democrats’ best option for a nominee, down from 53 percent in an August survey. A 57 percent majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, in contrast, now say they consider Donald Trump to have been the best option, up from just 35 percent in August. Overall, only 24 percent of all voters say Clinton was the Democrats’ best option, with just 30 percent saying that Trump was the best pick for the GOP.”
HOW DID LATINOS VOTE IN 2016? IT’S COMPLICATED - Grace Sparks: “Latinos are the fastest-growing minority group in the American electorate. Pew estimates that the group has gained the most eligible voters between 2012 and 2016, and will likely continue to increase. How heavily the group continues to support Democratic candidates will factor into future election outcomes. But no one is sure exactly how Latinos voted in the 2016 election. Estimates of the vote vary from 66 percent for Hillary Clinton and 28 percent for Donald Trump in exit polls, to 79 for Clinton and 18 for Trump in a Latino Decisions pre-election survey. Both sets of numbers show Latinos heavily supporting Clinton, but it matters whether it’s an overwhelming 61-point Democratic lead or a more modest 38-point advantage. It’s not clear who is right, though. Joe Lenski, executive vice president of Edison Research, said that one major difference between the polls is that Edison and Latino Decisions use different factors to classify Latino voters….On the other side, Latino Decisions criticizes the exit poll for its lack of sampling in areas where large amounts of Latinos live, saying that exit polling groups don’t control for demographic data.” [HuffPost]
MANY LONG-TERM PAINKILLER USERS RECEIVED NO ADVICE ON QUITTING - Scott Clement and Lenny Bernstein: “One-third of Americans who have taken prescription opioids for at least two months say they became addicted to, or physically dependent on, the powerful painkillers, according to a new Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation survey. Virtually all long-term users surveyed said that they were introduced to the drugs by a doctor’s prescription, not by friends or through illicit means. But more than 6 in 10 said doctors offered no advice on how or when to stop taking the drugs. And 1 in 5 said doctors provided insufficient information about the risk of side effects, including addiction….Despite the high rate of dependence, the poll finds that a majority of long-term opioid users say the drugs have dramatically improved their lives. Opioids relieve pain that is otherwise intractable, they said in follow-up interviews, allowing them to walk, work and pursue other activities. Fully two-thirds of users surveyed said relief is well worth the risk of addiction. People living with opioid users tend to have a darker view of the drugs’ effects. While one-third of users say they are hooked, more than half of people living with them suspect addiction, the survey found.” [WashPost]
TRUMP’S COALITION IS SPLIT ON SOME MAJOR ISSUES - Stanley Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz (D): “First, 10 percent of Republicans did not vote for him against Clinton. This group is comprised heavily of moderates and college graduates who are more pro-trade – and probably aren’t being won back. Second, there is group of independents and Democrats of comparable size who voted for Trump in the end, but who share few of his values and priorities….It cannot be emphasized enough how different the non-GOP Trump voter is at the core. They are working people and on the edge financially. The great majority of GOP base and Trump voters identify as middle class, but a 54 percent majority of these non-GOP Trump voters say they are working class. Half say they could not handle an unexpected $500 expense, compared to just a quarter of Republican base voters. They are desperate for economic relief and turned to Donald Trump because he railed against the corporate elite and promised to end out-sourcing and restore American manufacturing, invest in infrastructure, cut taxes for the middle class and not touch entitlements.” [Democracy Corps (D)]
CALIFORNIA’S VENERABLE FIELD POLL SHUTTING DOWN - Christopher Cadelago: “The Field Poll, which for more than a half-century has been the gold standard for public opinion research, is ceasing operations Friday, leaving behind a fabled track record of accurately reflecting the highs and lows of California’s biggest players and issues. Field’s closure, announced by poll director Mark DiCamillo, comes less than two years after the death of Mervin Field, who founded the surveying firm after working for Gallup and serving in the U.S. Merchant Marine during World War II. Field operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan, opinion-poll service, and has issued tens of thousands of reports. In an interview Thursday, DiCamillo, who spent 38 years at Field, said the poll’s chief underwriter, the France-based multinational advertising and public relations company Havas, recently informed him that the polling company would no longer be part of its future.” [SacBee]
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TUESDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-YouGov finds that just 11 percent of Americans have a lot of trust in news shared on Facebook. [YouGov]
-Few people are bothered by hearing either “Merry Christmas” or “Happy Holidays.” [Morning Consult]
-Most Americans say that they’ve heard “nothing at all” about the alt-right. [Pew]
-David Hopkins highlights the extreme generation gap in the 2016 presidential vote. [WashPost]
-Jenée Desmond-Harris talks to pollster Cornell Belcher about the “racial aversion” triggered by Obama’s presidency. [Vox]
Grace Sparks and Nick Bayer contributed to this article.