Why 2010 Will Not be a Replay of 1994
You sort of knew it was coming, right? The media talking heads are dusting off the 1994 playbook. You remember the story quite well: a young president and his party are soundly defeated in the midterm elections. It really sounds good, but it ain't gonna happen this time.
It's hard for many people to believe this when many pundits are salivating over the remote possibility that the wheels will come off President Obama's ambitious agenda. Yes, some of the talking heads are hoping for an Obama implosion and for the Republicans to take back control of congress to create the drama and intrigue of divided government. But I just don't believe it's in the cards.
And no, this is not wishful thinking on my part. This is not supposition and conjecture, or simply a baseless assertion from an Obama supporter trying to rally the troops. Trust me: 2010 will not be a repeat of 1994. Here are 4 reasons why:
Demographics - President Obama won African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, Arab-Americans, and Native-Americans in last year's election. He also trounced John McCain by roughly 40% with young voters. This is stunning. But what is even more jaw-dropping is how well President Obama did with young white voters, particularly young white women. Think about it: Hillary Clinton had her daughter Chelsea and John McCain had his daughter Meagan, but they didn't make a big dent. So it's easy to see why some conservative white parents didn't want their children to see President Obama's back to school speech. He remains uber popular with most white youth, and, according to a major poll this Summer, with younger Americans in general. This is a positive development that will pay big dividends for the Democrats in 2010 and beyond.
The Economy -- President Obama inherited a huge mess. The economy was tanking badly upon his arrival. But it would have been worse without the $787 billion stimulus bill. Period. The proof is in the pudding: it helped reduce GDP shrinkage in the third quarter and boosted consumer spending (great signs for the overall economy). The USA TODAY examined data that shows how stimulus cash has lifted Blue & Red States alike, and has offset a major drop in tax collections. And if that's not enough, the ultra conservative Wall Street Journal recently admitted that the stimulus (which they campaigned against) is helping the U.S. climb out of the current recession. And don't look now, but when Obama signs the impending climate bill into law, hundreds of thousands of Green jobs will be created. Around this time next year, Obama and the Democrats will be staring at a much stronger economy.
The Tea Party -- Ideological disagreements are one thing, but the ugliness and hysteria at Tea Party gatherings are something else all together. These birthers, deathers, and anti-immigration zealots desperately need to reclaim their Shpadoinkle. I don't have to give a list of examples about their vitriol because we've all witnessed the outrageous posters and criminally irresponsible rhetoric from Tea Party organizers and participants. Is it any wonder why President Obama has seen a 400% surge in death threats, and that Speaker Pelosi is warning of potentially serious political violence? Tell me how any of this helps Republicans? It doesn't.
And...President Barack Obama himself - He ran the most efficient presidential campaign anyone had ever seen. Remember his TV channel? Remember his advertisements in video games? Remember his under radar outreach to young white evangelicals in '07 that was laughed off? Yes, he rocked it. What man could deliver the most electric concession speech I've ever heard that was later turned into a runaway viral hit? The same man who delivered a riveting speech to 80,000 in Denver at the Democratic Convention. You think all of that ingenuity, energy, and out-of-the-box thinking has disappeared? President Obama is just getting warmed up. Remember his groundbreaking appearances on The Tonight Show, ESPN's' "March Madness/Bracketology" segment, and Univision's popular music show Premio Lo Nuestro back in the Spring? He rocked it. This Sunday, he is going to appear on five talk shows. And he will visit David Letterman - the King of Late Night - on Monday to reach slices of the American public that are not presently tuned into the cable news noise of lies and distortion. Oh, and about what he's done in office ... as of today, he's signed 13 bills into law, including the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, Children's Health Insurance Reauthorization Act, and The National Service Bill. Yes, Obama is still the best asset the Democratic Party has.
Taken together, this 2010 scenario is very feasible. But the factors I outlined must be married to the voter education/registration, traveling, e-mailing, phone-banking, and retail politicking that made it all happen in the first place. With so much at stake, we must remember that "Yes We Can" is not just a feel good slogan, or even a destination. In fact, it's an ongoing journey for something better than what we presently have: affordable health care, common sense education reform, stronger environmental protections, etc. So don't let your enthusiasm and resolve about the 2010 elections be sidelined by the ridiculous utterances of the usual suspects of punditry.
This post was originally published at 2morrowknight.blogspot.com.
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1) I and many others voted for this man because we thought he would make things better. He in fact is making things worse by bailing out banks and corporations and taking the side of big business over the people and allowing the very people who are responsible for this economic crisis, the Fed, to gain more power.
2) Instead of bringing back manufacturing to this country by sponsoring low interest loans for domestic manufacturing and at the same time placing dynamic tariffs on foreign slave labor goods. we have Cap and Trade that will raise energy prices for everyone. What about healthcare. Let me tell you when medicare tells doctors that a treatment won't be paid all the othe insurances follow and refuse that treatment. The government could easily make medicine and the education of new doctors a not for profit system . Why would we want the gov to run anything. Don't let the Katrina rescue squad run healthcare.
3) Tea parties have so many people because we are all sick of what is going on and we are not going to take it anymore. The Democrats and Republicans are two heads of the same creature.
4) Yes President Obama is a great oratator and ran a great campain but actions speak louder than words.
The President will not get my vote next time around and I am not alone.
http://www
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"I and many others voted for this man because we thought he would make things better" - wow, that he would make everything better in 9 months after taking office, when George Bush ran this economy into the ground for 8 years? Wow. Please don't pretend to be a "Obama supporter" when you know full well that you're one of those freakin' Teabaggers.
"we have Cap and Trade that will raise energy prices for everyone" - where is your proof? Oh, that's right, you don't need to provide any proof right?
"taking the side of big business over the people" - this is statement is full of crap and so are you. All you have to do is go to www.whiteh
You never voted for him, and you know it. And like the author above acknowledges, Dems will win in 2010. Read the post FIRST, and then comment, okay?
I did indeed vote for this President because We needed big change in Washington. We needed to get washington supporting the people and not big corporate interests. We needed to bring our boys home from the Wars we have no business fighting. I voted for an advocate of the middle class. I voted for someone who was not going to bring lobbyists into the administration. I voted for a President that was going to check with the people before passing significant legislation. I realize that this crisis we are in did not happen overnight. It actually took much longer than eight years to come to this point. I also realize that it cannot be fixed overnight. However, the tremmedous amounts of money that have been spent have not been spent well. The people that he has surrounded himself are the same old people that have participated in this countries problems. Geithner is a Federal Reserve Head and lobbyist for goldman sachs. This is no change. Legislation is being pushed through without anyone reading it. Thats no change. Our children and Grand Children have been given unprecidented debt to pay off. That's change my kids could live without.
Part 2 comment
As far as cap and trade, why don't you read the legislation and listen to the President himself concede that the companies that exceed the cap will be charged a fine. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out if the cost of doing business goes up the consumer foots the bill. Read http://onl
If I want feel good propaganda like, the economy is turning around and has hit bottom, I might take your advice and visit the Whitehouse site.
I don't appreciate being called names and a liar. I have the right to change my mind when I don't agree with the policies and actions of any administration. I really don't care what party is in power. I don't vote for parties but individuals that are the best persons for the job. I thought Mr Obama was that person and now I feel saddened that I was wrong.
18 to 29 yr olds voted 66 to 32% for Obama. This is not a typical margin for the young, it's hugely pro-Dem
and pro-Obama. Name one issue that Reptilicans represent of any remote interest to anyone under 35 yrs. Economy? wrecked by Reps. Gov spending? not really an issue to fire up the kids.
Repubs will continue to be For nothing and against everything.
There will be a few Dem losses in the house, probably a Blue Dog losing the primary to a Progressive in a more conservative district and subsequently losing to a Reptilican, but not many.I hope a good number of Blue Dogs are successfully challenged by Progs. Win or lose in the general election, the
remaining Dogs will be a little more persuadeable by Dem leadership.
Dems will remain in solid majorities in both houses.
These birfers, truthies and fraidys have NO appeal to most voters and will only help Dems.
It's as if a Democratic president isn't really a full President until he's weathered the storms of the midterm election. This, of course, explains the stonewalling obstructionism of the GOP. They see him as a temporary leader because after the mid-terms, they will be stronger and he will be weaker--or so they assume. So why compromise now? Why not undermine and attack and gin up the base to produce that very effect: a GOP victory in the midterms that will be taken as a mandate for further obstruction and disruption.
Has our system always been this crazy? Actually, no. The hyperpartisanship of recent years is toxic because it leads to this result: one party deliberately undermines the other, tuning out any interest in actually legislating or governing the country, until it can gain back a bit more power.
Health care won't be Obama's Waterloo, but the midterms might be. So let's gear up now and make sure that we're not Napoleon.
The points nmade here are strong; but the real threat to Obama and th Congressional Democrats lies in the blue dogs, both those in Congress, and those in the Administration. Obama's 'team of rival' approach has give these conservatives for more levrae than they deserve, and has allowed them to isolate Obama from the progressives who were his fieldworkrs in the election. They have made the Congressonal democrats look weaker than the are, while truly weakning Obama's resolve on policy matters. If we get a heath insurance bill without a public option, that will be the real beginning of the end. And by January, Obama will need to redefine his Afghanistan strategy targetted toward an exit, or by this time next year the press will redefine it as 'Obama's War.' One truism you can say about progressives, without leadership they stay home during elections, and we all know who wins when that happens. And Obama and the Dems have been evidencing increasing leadership crisis the past couple months.
O'Bushbama and elected Democrats have proven that they are for sale and are working for our corporate masters. I hope NOBODY supports their criminal behavior by voting for them in 2010.
you don't work
The message to everyone who helped elect Barack Obama as President last November is that the job isn't over.
President Obama reached out to everyone to help him turn the mess that the Bush Administration left around.
Yes, he is President. And yes, he is expected to be willing to work his hips off to bring the country back from the brink of disaster.
But, he can't do it alone.
The Republicans are not just not helping him right the ship.
They, and their allies are doing everything they can to throw a log on the road that they hope will stop any significant change from coming about.
DON'T LET THEM SUCCEED at making YOUR President fail.
DO YOUR PART, however small and seemingly insignificant.
It worked in November and strength is still in the numbers.
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"DO YOUR PART, however small and seemingly insignific
Thank you so much for writing that. In March 2007, I started creating an email list for various states. I did this because Obama was talking then about building on Howard Dean's 2006 "50 State Strategy".
For example, when I found out that Obama dispatched an advance team to the states with caucuses (KS, ID, AK, NM, etc), and did so months before the competition, I worked overtime to create a list of emails from that state. Why? So that I could send out emails that would (a) dispel the misinformation out there about Obama, and (b) provide links to articles and posts dealing with his record, vision, and background
So you're right...we all can do our part. Everyone may not have the discipline or interest to do an un-sexy, not-very-exciting job like copying and pasting emails to specific groups, and then creating email accounts to send them off. But it needed to be done. I emailed people just ONE time, because I did not want to spam them. But the point is, hundreds of thousands (maybe more) came in contact with my emails.
And I can't wait to do it all again for 2006, and again for 2008. Fired up...ready to go!
Yes, and I guess that his wife and oprah flying over to denmark for the weekend on a rented 727 only to be followed by him the next day on the 747 air force one is proof in pudding... Oh but this is for the olympics..
The only change here Ive seen is in the party in majority; other than that it's biz as usual in DC...
I think it remains to be seen whether the energy and enthusiasm that the Obama campaign brought to itself will translate into Congressional elections.
Will that same demographic remain as enthusiastic and involved for their local representatives and/or Senators? I don't know that there's any indication that they will.
While the teabaggers are hypocritical by definition and much smaller in number than they would have us believe, they are loud and very active and enthusiastic.
Obama's poll numbers jumped after his speech, proving two things. 1- He is still well liked and trusted and 2-the myth that he is over exposed is just that, a myth and wishful thinking on the part of anyone that makes that statement.
Will he be strong enough to have coattails in 2010? I hope so, for the most part. I do predict that whatever gains the Right may make next year, they will be harder fought than they think. Hope is still a greater ally than resentment, and resentment is all the Right has right now. Resentment and Dick Armey's funding.
Yes there was a lot of energy in that campaign. An energy built on people who wanted to be part of history, for change and ohhhh the so many promises ( remember that lady who thought that after Obama won she would no longer have to pay for her car or bills )... for youth over age, for techno over fundamenta
These "Tea baggers" as you call are really average Americans.
Look at real polls my friend... as reported by Rasmussen; his approval index has gone from a high of +30 on 1-2-09 to yesterday’s low of -11 with constant negatives since June.
They call themselves Teabaggers. I'm just joining in because its amusing. Some of them are average, some are corporate shills. Some are just gun nuts. We've already seen from clips that they don't even know what they are talking about or who they are talking about. And clearly you don't even know what grass roots means.
I hope Dick Armey's paychecks are high enough. Do you get insurance with your employment?
Obama's low numbers are due to his handling HCR, which includes people like me. However, his other numbers remain high. Something that rarely happens to Presidents of either party.
Rasmussen was discredited over a year ago. Their poll numbers, even if they support something I like, are meaningless to me.
He won minorities and young people so the midterms are a lock? logic? Unless this midterm election is different than every previous midterm voters will be older and more likely to be white than the presidential election. That doesn't automatically mean losses but it will be a contest. I agree that the state of the economy will play a crucial role but your predictions for the state of the economy are very optimistic.
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Hi AngryOhian. Thanks for your comment.
I believe you missed the point of my post. I didn't say that Obama "won minorities and young people so the midterms are a lock". Where did I write that? Nobody has a lock on anything. My point is that the Democrats have 4 things working for them, including the the young vote. And that is undeniable, no matter how cynically one chooses to look at it. And yes, Obama didn't get a majority of the white vote. But neither did Carter or Clinton. With a sizeable amount of the white vote, and a ridiculously high majority of the minority vote, the DEMS can (and I believe will) win re-election in Congress.
And as I noted in the last paragraph, these auspicious factors must be connected to all of the things that have helped the DEMS gain seats in Congress over the last two election cycles, and swept Obama in on a historic election.
As for the economy, things will continue to move a slow pace, but the economy will see growth in the 4th quarter, and is poised to be "better" next year than this one. The stimulus has worked better than its critics predicted it would. And most of the money hasn't even been give out yet. Looking at all the factor with our economy, I'd say I'm being more "realistic" than "optimistic".
But I thank you for sharing your opinions.
He also has Organizing for America and they will be getting out the vote in the midterms.
The right wing currently has leaders only in Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.
While everything the author states makes good sense, there are things brewing that do not bode well for Dems.
Many areas Obama won were historically Republican (Fl, In, Va, Nc) Holding the voters in these states will be very difficult.
In 1994 we did not have the Internet and Fox News . Look at what two twenty-somethings with a video camera, their grand dad's old flapper threads and $1300 did to Acorn. Watch for more traditionally Dem organizing bodies to come under same scrutiny.
Dems have been ahead of curve on net roots since Joe Trippi, Howard Dean in 2004. Republicans have caught up and if SCOTUS knocks down McCain-Feingold portions that allows corporations to contribute money directly, it may well be all over for Dems.
Dems have been particularly inept in remembering the Clinton rallying cry: Let No Charge Go Unanswered. Dems sat back while crackpots swayed opinion on things like if president is US citizen. That's a hole that doesn't need to be climbed out of.
With Obama not on the ticket in 2010, many who were motivated in 2008 will stay home. GOP get out vote drive in 2010 will dwarf that of Dems.
The thing that Republicans have always been "caught up" on is the art of rhetoric, fear and race baiting. Democrats have gotten weary from the fight over the presidential election. I know because I talk to so many Dem moms, and they all have the same concerns. We have familes to raise, jobs, homes to care for, community events and all that those responsibilities entail. I personally thought I could get back to some normalcy, but lo and behold, the Republicans were ready and waiting to pull out their "Operation Chaos" . I personally did not think we were going to revisit the madness so quickly, but when I saw what was going on, I jumped right in.
I worked too many hours, held too many "Coffee, Conversation and Politics", to let things go south now. I had never been so engaged as I was this past election, and I know I am not alone. Millions of people were engaged for the first time to elect a president, members of congress and senators, and just like me, they will not let their efforts go up in flames in 2010 or 2012.
I don't give up or give in when I know the reasons for my readiness are just. You can sit on the sidelines and watch the Republicans strip and people of color of their hard fought rights, but I won't, and neither will millions of others.
I accidently left out an important word in the last sentence of my comment listed above.
"You can sit on the sidelines and watch the Republicans strip "WOMEN" and people of color of their hard fought rights, but I won't, and neither will millions of others".
Pretty sharp.
However, if the voters are fed up with the bluedogs, you also might see people who are swingvoters who will vote real Dems in.
Simply fed up with the smear campaign and the teabaggers who make them look stupid by association, many Repubs, fed up with the behaviour and action - rather non-behaviour and inaction in their case, instead filling their pockets only for corporate interest - could as easily switch over to the Dems, if only to show their leaders that they do NOT represent middle America - the largest single party of moderates on both sides of the Great American Divide. They form the backbone of the electorate and while teabaggers scream loudest, this backbone of moderates will choose eggs for their money and leave the Repubs.
If they are satisfied with the action instigated by Obama and its results over the next few months till mid-term, it is very likely that the Dems not only hold on to, but extend their lead in both Senate and House.
I hope and pray you are right. The right has become so irrational in the last 15 yrs I just can't see them appealing to the masses like before.
Pres. Obama will really have to buck up though and get down in the weeds with these hate mongerers. Being a nice guy is getting him no where fast.
hate mongers? you are joking right...wh
No, actually, according to the secret service, "de.ath threats against president Obama are up 400%" reported Rick Sanchez on a CNN feature.
Gun nuts are bringing AR-15's to presidential events and saying if they don't win at the ballot box they will resort to the bullet box. Do you believe that street theater and overblown rhetoric like this can win the independent vote in '10 or '12? If this is your strategy, please, keep it up!
"Joking"? You think folks are joking when they say the Republicans are race-baiting? It's gotten so awful that you don't even know who to talk to these days. Does the person at the grocery or the cleaners share the views of the whack-a-doodles? How about your neighbors that you smile at everyday, and the teachers you send your children to spend the day with? No one is joking here. Can you imagine seeing your neighbor holding up a racial slur about the president of the US?
As far as BUSH was concerned, I never saw the type of racial vitriol we are all witnessing today. Is this what people "want back"? They want to take us back with them? Well guess what, the only people that want to go back are white men, who are losing their jobs and their supremacy. I say if the want to "go back", go right ahead, but I'm moving forward and so is the rest of the country.
The Republicans will take a spanking this time around, just like they did in 2008, because people are fed up and we haven't even had a chance to turn anything around. How can anything get done,with Republicans being destuctionist?
Victor, on what planet do you spend most of your time?
Sorry, but all those young folks you counted on a year ago are *still* gonna be out of work or stuck in crummy jobs. The euphoria has( or is) dissapating faster than water on Mars. They are getting grumpy, forlorn and desperate already..
Are you speaking for yourself, or millions of others that won't stand for the work to get this president and congress elected to be overturned?
I think that 2010 will be more significant than 1994 in that the masses are gathering against the left without an identifiable leader - this is truly a grass-roots movement.
As for inspiring trust in leftist "progressive" activism or Obamaism, those pesky new ACORN PSAs aren't helping a bit, at in "in "PROSTITUTION: DO IT FOR THE CHILDREN. (An ACORN Public Service Announcement)" at http://fir
I think "the masses" is more your dream than reality.
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Nice try.
Tea Party members don't represent a "grassroots movement" anymore than I look like Denzel Washington. It just doesn't exist. Anytime the words "we're a grassroots movement" have to be uttered in every sentence, then that's a sign that it's NOT a grassroots movement.
I'd rather go to the "After Party" than the Tea Party.
Nice try, but no cigar.
The Tea Party is completely a grass roots effort. Just look at Obama's poll numbers.
You are right. I don't think the left gets it, so we will just have to wait and see.
I don't think you get even IT, let alone anything else. Grass never grows tall enough and if it spreads to far, we will send in the sheep, gotas, cows & bulls and even horses and donkeys, to eat it.
...and then you woke up (dreaming).
When you look up in the sky... What color is it? Just curious.
Wow. I am so glad to see an analysis of the role young people will continue to play in upcoming elections.
Very interesting points you made in the part dealing with demographics. ABout Obama doing very well with young whites, and when factor that in, its easy to see the fake outrage of conservative white parents, who were "concerned" for the kids. Great point 2morrowknight.
The other good point was about how well Obama did with young white females, even though Chelsea Clinton and Meagan MCcain were clearly brough on to pull young people. Excellent point.
I'm feeling good about 2010!
The facts show that young people did not vote for Obama any more than they have voted in previous elections. This "yong people" vote doesn't exist, at least not to make a difference in the outcome.
PROOF is so appreciated.
As the parent of three young white women I can say this was certainly true for them and all of their friends. They worked hard to get President Obama elected and these are cheerleader/soroity girls, not the don't have a date on Friday so I will join the college political club for a social life kids. And as Rachel Maddow pointed out last night, college kids are even paying attention to the details of the Health Care debate. These are very good signs indeed.
I feel so much better after reading this. We're constantly being fed a ridiculous drumbeat of gloom and doom about "trouble" in 2010.
President Obama may not have done every single thing I want him to do, but he is presiding over an administration that deserves nothing but As and Bs for how they're working. SO its not reason to believe his coalition will splinter.
Oh, I love the line: "These birthers, deathers, and anti-immigration zealots desperately need to reclaim their Shpadoinkl
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LOL!
Yeah, when so many Tea Party folks need to rediscover and reclaim their Shpadoinkle, then there's a problem. LOL!
We all knew Obama would win in 2008. By the same token, much has changes since then. There will be a big backlash, whether you like it or not.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The backlash will be against those who choose to inflame race concerns in this country instead of policies. When Latino's, Blacks and Whites's who don't want the 1900's revisited, will turn out in force. Change will and does happen, whether we like it or not, and we're not talking about cjanging direction and going backwards, either.
Looks like you're going in the wrong direction.
Yup, there will be a big backlash - against the Hate Rallies that are being held all over this country.
Time to move into the 21st century, folks. The sons of the confederacy can either come along with the rest of us, or they can shrink the the repubs into an ever-smaller regional fringe party.
Keep the faith, friend.
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