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A. Siegel

A. Siegel

Posted: January 11, 2010 09:50 AM

"Boy, It's Cold Outside" and the Nature of Climate Change / Global Warming

What's Your Reaction:
It is cold in my backyard, therefore global warming isn't real.
It is that sort of quite natural human (ego-centric) perspective that contributes to the difficulty that many face in comprehending climate change and global warming. Of course, this difficulty is exacerbated by those who actively distort, seeking to emphasize "cold" records while failing to discuss "hot" records.

Even honest and truthful reporting can lead to confusion, remembering that far too many people have a hard time looking past what they can see from their front porch (even if they can another country from that porch ...).

We find it hard, in part, to comprehend something as large (and, by human terms, gradual) as climate change for, among other reasons,


  • Our own eyes: we live in our spaces, our own 'environments'. "We are not born with global vision or a sense of history."

  • We tend to focus "on contemporary local concerns". Our evolution works against the long time frame as "humans did not need to know what the local climate would be like a century into the future" as "they were much more concerned with the necessities of the here and now, and had little time or inclination to ponder the abstract world."


Thus, when it is cold outside, when the thermometer goes down and the weatherman begins to talk of breaking cold records, the global warming deniers and self-proclaimed "skeptics" flock and smirk and declare 'proof' that climate change is not occurring (and, absurdly, ready and willing to speak of impending ice age). Simply put, these comments are based on deceit, data cherry-picking, and conveniently forgetting that around the globe, from America to Australia to the Arctic to ...., each decade is seeing more hot temperature records than cold temperature records.

This tendency for "it's cold here" to lead to a raft of climate skepticism creates sensitivity. Thus, reading something like this on Saturday raised hackles even if it's basically truthful information.

Baby, it is cold outside:
By the end of the weekend, 180 million Americans may shiver through record-setting cold.


The title of the original source: The Deep Freeze of 2010.
The unyielding cold spell gripping much of the nation was expected to hang on tight over the weekend, though some areas that saw snowfall during the week were expected to have drier weather.

And the big picture? By the end of the weekend, 180 million Americans may shiver through record-setting cold. Sixty percent of Americans will see and feel temperatures 15 to 30 degrees below normal.


This accurate material and clearly of interest to those freezing their butts off with more snow and ice than normal.

This article begs a question: What is "the big picture"?

Again, there is a 'framing' problem in discussing the "it's cold in my backyard, how can the globe be warming"-type discussions. As we're aware, US culture is incredibly inward-looking. Thus, "record-setting cold" in the US has this subtext, for many Americans: "Global warming is likely BS."

A bigger picture ...

There is a context for the US cold streak.

It is not just that US temperatures have been going up decade-to-decade, on average, even if there are occasional (very) cold snaps.

It isn't just that weather isn't climate (see Richard Stuebi's Feb., 2009 HuffPost piece).

It isn't just that a location / area (the United States) or an isolated time period (today) isn't necessarily representative of a global phenomena occurring over time (Global Warming / climate change).

But, it is also that while North America and much of western and northern Europe and Russia are cold, much of the rest of the world is unusually hot.

Thus, While Americans (and Brits, and (northern) French, and Swedes and Russians...) froze,


  • Bulgarians boiled:
    Temperature records were seen across Bulgaria on the first day of the new year, marking the second day in a row with unusually warm weather, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) announced on January 1.

    Thermometers soared to 22,4 centigrade in the Northern town of Veliko Tarnovo, an absolute record for the season. It was also hot in Varna, Burgas, Ahtopol, Blagoevgrad, Dragoman, which saw temperatures ranging between 17-22 centigrade. In the capital Sofia the mercury zoomed to 17,3 centigrade, beating the record from 1971 when it reached 16 centigrade.


  • Puerto Ricans roasted
    Another record high temperature was reached at the Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport in San Juan on January 5th, 2010. At 1:29 pm, the temperature reached 89F, which tied the record high temperature for January 5th, set back in 1980. This marks the third record high temperature of the new year in San Juan, PR.

And, well, so on ...

The "bigger picture," at least when it comes to climate change, doesn't stop at the border and doesn't encompass just one weekend.

Oh, by the way, some journalists get it right. The title to one AP story: Experts: Cold Snap Doesn't Disprove Global Warming . And ABC had No, the Cold Does Not Mean No Global Warming. For another view of the current weather situation from a more global ("bigger picture") perspective, see Lou Grinzo, The Cost of Energy, The Arctic Oscillation, Again. Hat-tip to Lou for calling attention to the graphic below. See the red zones? Greenland at 50 degrees in January with much of the Arctic colored red; much of the US, Europe, and northern Asia are blue.

For a related item, see Fire and Ice.

 

Follow A. Siegel on Twitter: www.twitter.com/A_Siegel

It is cold in my backyard, therefore global warming isn't real. It is that sort of quite natural human (ego-centric) perspective that contributes to the difficulty that many face in comprehending clim...
It is cold in my backyard, therefore global warming isn't real. It is that sort of quite natural human (ego-centric) perspective that contributes to the difficulty that many face in comprehending clim...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
Proud member of the reality-based community!
11:53 AM on 01/14/2010
It only makes sense that winters will still be cold. Average temperatures have risen by over one degree F since the Industrial Revolution began because of warming. Therefore, if Arctic winds blow minus 20 degree frigid cold temperatures down from the Arctic, then our over one degree rise makes little difference. However, over time it makes all the difference in the world.
BlackbirdHighway
Brawndo's got electrolites!
09:03 AM on 01/13/2010
So, all this other stuff that came from scientists works just fine. I mean radios, computers, microwave ovens, cell phones, big screen TVs, airplanes, submarines, nuclear bombs, and on and on and on. None of that stuff would exist if not for science and scientists. So people completely accept science and scientific work every freaking day of their lives.

Then, scientists come up with something like global warming, and all of the sudden people don't believe or trust in science or scientists any more. Just because it doesn't match up nicely with their particular political beliefs or somebody on Fox News told them what to think. WTF?

Do these people think their cell phones and their computers were developed by magic, or what?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
RichieB
Science is true whether you believe it or not
11:39 AM on 01/13/2010
Right on point. NASA spends more on climate research than any other agency. They can send a man to the moon, rovers to Mars and voyagers to the outer planets. They generate extensive data from satellites and have time lapsed video of the decreasing arctic ice caps. But they can't be trusted when it comes to climate research?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
A. Siegel
12:15 PM on 01/13/2010
Well stated.

By the way, about attacking models (as part of this): there are elements of every day life that are "modeled", from how many cashiers are at the supermarket checkout line to timing lights on the road to air control systems.

People put their lives in the hands of "models" all the time yet, when it comes to climate, "the models are wrong". (By the way, they have been wrong -- they have been consistently over optimistic: http://getenergysmartnow.com/2007/03/19/optimists-or-pessimists-what-is-it-with-those-ipcc-types/)
05:39 PM on 01/12/2010
Yes, the globe has warmed. Will it kill us? No. This is just an excuse to create a world government and for the wall street fatcats to make billions more dollars by selling and trading carbon credits.
12:19 PM on 01/12/2010
Funny how when it is record setting heat, they all ask how anyone can deny GW. Of course record setting cold, is just natural weather patterns.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
12:47 PM on 01/12/2010
Are you generalizing?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
A. Siegel
06:04 PM on 01/12/2010
Again, record setting cold is a regional item while there is 'hot' elsewhere. This is not "regional warming", but "global". And, there will be records set for cold even in face of a warming globe -- just fewer of them decade to decade: which is what the records and analyses are showing.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
Proud member of the reality-based community!
09:05 AM on 01/12/2010
Great article! You used the word ego-centric to describe the visceral reaction that deniers have to the cold spell as being a reason to deny warming. Actually, all their arguments are based on ego-centrism. They disbelieve the science because they choose not to believe in it. They refute any evidence which comes their way without giving it a second thought. They uncritically latch onto any information from a right-wing blog or tabloid which reinforces their narrow viewpoint. Most even deny the established scientific consensus supporting warming, but bask in any phony list of scientists who disagree with warming theory that the far right presents, until it is knocked down as not being genuine.The far right does not believe in warming because they do not want to. It would mean that they in a few years perhaps may have to change their lifestyle and that is asking too much. It is an attack on liberty. So I believe "ego-centrism" is the perfect descriptor to apply to the denier state of mind.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
Proud member of the reality-based community!
08:53 AM on 01/12/2010
Christian Science Monitor: "Look around and you'll find plenty of warm spots on the planet." In a January 7 blog post, The Christian Science Monitor noted that "[s]ome parts of Northern New Zealand are sweltering in record breaking heat this week. And oddly enough, so are some places in Bulgaria, where a hot spot over the Black Sea has warmed one town to a pleasant 72 degrees. Not bad for a city at the same latitude as Portland, Maine." The Christian Science Monitor also noted, "On Christmas Day, the Australian Weather Bureau reported that Central Pacific Ocean temperatures are now at their warmest in more than a decade. For Australia itself, 2009 was a scorcher, the second hottest year on record after 2005."
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Berettasskeeter
For what we are about to receive, may we be truly
05:02 PM on 01/12/2010
Its useful to remember that on January 7, in New Zealand and Australia, their summer weather has not yet peaked??!!!
Semper fi
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
A. Siegel
06:05 PM on 01/12/2010
And thus "On Christmas Day, the Australian Weather Bureau reported that Central Pacific Ocean temperatures are now at their warmest in more than a decade." Yes, summer ...
11:31 PM on 01/11/2010
I think he needs to simplify this and explain it as if most of the deniers are children.

First, the world is not flat.
The sun isn't like a table lamp that shines above the whole table(or the earth) equally. Certain area's get more sun depending on the season and the tilt of the earth (which is a sphere). When it's winter in the northern hemisphere, it's summer in the southern hemisphere, because at this time the southern hemisphere is tilted more toward the sun. So, even with global warming there will still be some sort of season, depending on which hemisphere is tilted more toward the sun.

( So, in baby language, when the top of the sphere(baseball like thing) is closer to the light it's hotter, and then the bottom is further away, so it's colder.)

Basically, what global warming is saying, sort of, is that when we are tilted closer to the sun, it will be extraordinarily hotter, because the shield that cools down the suns rays is getting thinner and in some areas disappearing. So more of the suns rays can get in. Think like an Ice cream cone with a hard chocolate coating, put it under a light the chocolate will start to melt away, but not necessarily the ice cream underneath, it's not until the chocolate is half melted or all melted that the ice cream starts to melt.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
A. Siegel
07:19 AM on 01/12/2010
Huh?

So, it seems you are asserting that the sun is the only factor in global warming and climate change?

And, if your description is accurate, why (look at the graphic provided above) is the Arctic and Greenland (far) warmer than normal since "the top of the sphere (baseball like thing" ... is further away [and should be] colder"?

Sadly, I don't think that you meant this as a joke.
02:11 PM on 01/12/2010
Yes this was a joke. I was just mocking the deniers simplicity. I'm sorry you didn't get the sarcasm.

There's obviously more to global warming to that. This is how it was described to me when I was 5. Since, I'm treating them like children I thought I'd use the same example. You never over complicate things with children, it's all about motivating them.

Joke, Sarcasm, should I print it out for you.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard2
08:59 PM on 01/11/2010
Denial is a river in Eqypt. The northern hemisphere is having the coldest winter in several decades. People will be dying from the cold, not from imaginery man-made global warming. Do you seriously want governments to continue spending money on fake science like the CRU and met office in Great Britain, or do you want them to be prepared for the bitter winter cold we are experiencing right now and which we may experience again in the near future?

The windfarms in Great Britain are providing only 0.2 percent of the energy being consumed in Great Britain right now. Without coal, gas and nuclear power, the British people would frozen.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
A. Siegel
07:07 AM on 01/12/2010
"The northern hemisphere ..."

Evidently, for you, areas like the Arctic and Greenland are not part of the Arctic circle?
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fumes
Midnight Toker
02:39 PM on 01/11/2010
''It is cold in my backyard, therefore global warming isn't real.''

i can't believe you finally got it lol.. say have you seen this:

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.. like Mojib Latif of the IPCC. The scientists’ predictions undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise. This challenge to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible catastrophe is all the greater because these scientists.. like Mojib could never be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
lesterbud
Facts ARE Liberty
03:01 PM on 01/11/2010
fumes

You did not get enough abuse for citing The Daily Mail as a respectable source?

You think posting that link here makes your mindless position stronger?

You are a perfect illustration of what is wrong with this debate. Solid science, reasonable models, cautious predictions and love for our fellow humans can often be negated, with the help of a media looking to profit off denier rhetoric, by purely irrational and emotional claims of conspiracy.
03:22 PM on 01/11/2010
Oh, so I guess an article quoting the IPCC is worthless? That would make most of the reporting in favor of global warming worthless as well.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rr52
The fighter still remains...
04:15 PM on 01/11/2010
A WARMING Arctic forced colder air farther down into our hemisphere because the jet stream stalled. Ditto for Europe. That's the reason for the recent Arctic Blast. There is very little on the Internet explaining what just happened and exactly why. I found it here.

The AVERAGE surface GLOBAL temperature for 2009 is in also. It is still rising.

This is all documented and explained quite well at:

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/.