Barack Obama will not be the next President of the United States. If last week's polls from New Hampshire provide any indication of the direction of the Democratic Party's would-be voters, Obama's campaign appears to be slipping off the into periphery. If he is to make any headway as the Democratic frontrunner, his tactics must change. On the eve of the Democratic debate at Dartmouth College, recent voter surveys underlined the limits of what has become the Obama campaign.
It is not that Obama is moving in the wrong direction. It is that he is not moving in any direction. When Obama entered this year's presidential campaign, he did so with much popularity and promise. He looked like that breath of fresh air, but the voters' perception of his potential can only take him so far.
It is becoming evident that Obama has reached his limits as a politician in a competition that demands much more than he has been able to provide. It is clear that, for Obama, that moment has arrived - and is passing.
Watching Obama in last Wednesday's debate at Dartmouth college was like watching a librarian negotiate the return of an overdue book. There was none of that impassioned crowd-wowing, no words of inspiration that Obama has been known to produce.
His reputation is gradually overshadowing him.
New Hampshire should be prime real estate for Obama in these early rounds. The numbers show that Obama is viewed favorably among Democratic and independent voters.
Regardless of this supposed advantage, Democrats across the country look to be leaning towards former First Lady as their candidate.
"Of course she is the front-runner," Joe Trippi, senior adviser to John Edwards, said of Clinton. "By her lonesome."
Obama is looking more and more powerless in narrowing the advantage Clinton has touted since before the race even began. Unable to close in on her, he has allowed Clinton to use the summer months to widen her advantage over him and the rest of her competitors. Her 9-percentage-point advantage over Obama in July has risen to a 23-point lead in September and appears to be a growing, insurmountable political-breakaway.
Clinton leads in both the national polls and in the New Hampshire polls while Edwards holds the overall lead in Iowa and looks to make the state his. And, Obama? Obama looks lost in the crosshairs of candidates who look like they've done this before.
For Obama, the discouraging doubt is: Can his politics of change really win him the nomination?
Change has been his bread & butter, the foundation of his candidacy and the basis of his message. Obama has run from coast to coast and everywhere in between, speaking of his plans to bring about health care and how to end the Iraq war, all the while stressing that such things can only be achieved by changing the ways of Washington.
This excited his audiences. You know - that excited feeling of mobilizing behind The Man. Those beliefs instill themselves.
Obama and his supporters will be telling themselves that there is nothing in their slide down the polls, that there is no indication that Clinton is seen by primary voters as the inevitable victor with the credentials to match. They refuse to acknowledge her solid grip on the top spot as unshakable, even though it has continuously proved to be.
Obama must change gears if intends to win in Iowa or New Hampshire - but how?
This has and will continue to be a subject of much intense debate in this campaign. Attacking Clinton could jeopardize his image as the man who refuses to do things the old, Washington way. Furthermore, there is little evidence that Obama's candidacy offers much of a distinction between his and Clinton - except for her greater experience. That fact makes Obama's task all the more difficult.
Presidential campaigns are educating experiences and - for Obama - this one has looked to be a big lesson. Without a doubt, he has learned quite a lot from past nine months on the campaign trail and his eyes have had the opportunity to take in the gritty world of presidential politics in all it grotesque beauty. Obama has drawn great attention wherever he has gone and he has managed some advances in spite of criticism in regard to his political inexperience, which his rivals have described as "naivety."
"The length of your resume says nothing about your character," Obama said. "So let me tell you about the experiences that I bring to bear in this campaign because I think that the experience that American is looking for right now is the experience of bringing the people together to solve problems, Republicans and Democrats."
So then, the question Obama should be asking himself is not: Can I catch Hillary?
It is: Can I convince voters that I have the right balance of freshness, strength, and foresight to be president?
Given his current numbers in the polls, one thinks that if Obama did in fact have the foresight required, he wouldn't bother asking himself the question in the first place.