Israel May Win in Gaza, Hamas Won't Lose and Moderate Arab Leaders and Obama Will Worry

Israel may win this war, but Hamas is not going to lose it.

They will suffer great losses, but once this is over, just as Israelis will support their newly elected prime minister, Gaza's 1.5 million Palestinians will also rally around Hamas, their democratically elected government -- and many Arabs will too.

The losers will be the Palestinians people themselves and moderate Arab governments whose leaders are facing domestic opposition to renounce relations with Israel and condemn their attacks.

As Palestinians living in Gaza fear the next Israeli attack, moderate Arab governments fear the fallout of this impolitic war will make fragile regional relationships all the more vulnerable.

Here in Beirut, gray skies that had sprayed spells of rain onto the city in recent days have now cleared offering planes landing at Rafik B. Hariri Airport greater visibility for touchdown. Gaza, only several hundred miles south of Beirut, will also see clearer skies in the next few days -- creating a window of opportunity for Israel to complete its aerial assault, launch an ambitious ground invasion and withdraw victoriously just in time for the national elections on February 6th.

All necessary preparations have been made. With tanks and troops massed on the border, the infrastructure of Hamas nearly destroyed, and over a million Palestinians couped up in windowless homes, the stage has been set. Though it remains to be seen whether Israel is bluffing or planning to go all in this hand.

News that Israel opened the Erez crossing on Friday morning to allow hundreds of foreigners to leave Gaza confirms they are going through the motions needed to implement a ground incursion. If Israeli tanks cross the border, the flames of anger sweeping across the Arab street will burn brighter, challenging the messy and muddled response from Arab governments.

The boldness of Israel's bombardment, whose weapons are provided by an annual $3 billion in U.S. aid, galvanizes and unifies the extremist sentiments among Arabs supporting the influence of religious radicals that are challenging more moderate, though venal governments across the region.

Israel may have intended to divide the Palestinian people between Fatah and Hamas, but it is the divisions across the entire Arab world that seem to be deepening.

As Palestinians living in Gaza fear that they may fall victim to the next Israeli attack, moderate Arabs governments across the region fear the fallout of this impolitic war will make fragile regional relationships only more vulnerable.

Egypt has taken the brunt of condemnations. Here in Beirut, protestors stormed the Egyptian Embassy on Sunday, throwing rocks at the offices before being fought off by police with tear gas and water hoses. The embassy, which is in the Beer Hassan area of Beirut, was sectioned off with barbed wire and many of the streets leading to the embassy were closed off.

Watch some footage below of the scene after protests at the Egyptian embassy.

Click to play

Intentionally or not, Israel has incited millions across the Arab world to praise Syria and Iran, both dedicated to the Palestinian cause, and perhaps just as many to condemn Egypt and more moderate countries that are caught between their allegiance to the U.S. and their Arab neighbors.

A meeting between Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Israel's foreign minister, Tzipi Livni on the 25th, just one day before Israel's attacks on Gaza has sparked more speculation of Egypt's connivance. Egypt's foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, insists he told Livni not to attack Gaza, but having closed its border with Gaza in preparation for the attacks has left many Arabs skeptical.

In Egypt, Kuwait and Jordan parliamentary members are capitalizing on the the public's sympathies with the plight of Palestinians. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood specifically are challenging their respective government's positions as the death toll and destruction in Gaza rises.

Egypt is in a particularly precarious situation. Like Jordan, Egypt has political and peaceful relations with Israel, but the Egyptian people's support for Hamas seems to be burgeoning . Across the Arab world, Egyptian government offices have been one of few primary targets for angry protesters choosing to vent their vexations.

While most Arab regimes are vehemently condemning Israel for its excessive use of force, some, like Egypt, have blamed Hamas for not heeding warnings (a legitimate criticism since it was inevitable that Israel would respond to the rockets coming from Gaza by pounding Palestinians eventually). Others, by remaining relatively silent, or by indirectly criticizing Iran who are thought to be funding Hamas with millions of dollars, are viewed as traitors.

Though this conflict is about Israel and Palestine, and by extension the region's politics, it is also about religion. Moderate Sunni regimes would likely be pleased (whether publicly or not) to see Iranian-supported Hamas lose power.

Israel will win the psychological war. Though Israel's weapons can cause serious damage, it is their use of psychological warfare on Palestinians that is most destructive.

By isolating and restricting the amount of food, fuel and medical supplies reaching Gaza, Israel has been attacking the psyche and ability of Palestinians to sustain themselves, forcing them collectively into a state of panic, fear and desperation, facilitating their dependence on Hamas and nearly blind support for delusional defiance.

After many months of imposing economic stagnation and the systematic restriction on the movement of basic goods and people, Israel has demolished much of Gaza's already-crumbling infrastructure, filling millions of Palestinians with intense fear and anger.

Before launching an air-strike that killed Hamas leader Nizar Rayyan, Israel reportedly warned him that they would be attacking his home but he chose to stay and die with his family, making the ultimate sacrifice -- perhaps his intention was to show other families in Gaza that he apparently did not fear death.

Raanan Gissin, a former senior advisor to Prime Minister Sharon, said on Al Jazeera English yesterday that for the past ten or fifteen years asymmetrical warfare requires that 80% of military attacks are determined by psychological effects.

"This is asymmetrical warfare...and the military that you use is to achieve the psychological affect. You don't achieve it over night," he said. "This is a war of nerves and what we have achieved up to now has been quite effective."

While Israel allowed dozens of trucks to carry relief aid into Gaza, it has hardly been enough.

Moreover, Israel's foreign minister Tzipi Livni told a press pool in Paris yesterday, "We understand that while operating in Gaza Strip against Hamas we need to ease the life of the population," she said. "There is no humanitarian crisis...and therefore there is no need for a humanitarian truce."

The following interactive graphic titled Gaza in Numbers shows some statistics documenting the humanitarian crisis as it has worsened from 2007-2008.

Israel's ability to implement a blockade on a civilian population that deprives them of basic human rights and then justify this kind of military action would not be possible without Washington's protection and unwavering support.

We can expect very little from the Bush administration, but what happened to Obama's mantra of "change?"

Although Obama has said that there is only one President at a time, he has spoken frequently and at length about the state of America's economy and international incidents such as the terror attacks in Mumbai last month. It is understandable that Americans are more concerned with their day to day lives such as paying the bills, paying the rent, and finding health care, but by taking the convenient position of staying out of it until Israel's attack take their course, President-elect Obama isn't representing change or leadership.

Speaking of leaders, Ehud Barak and Tzipi ivni, both up for prime minister in Israel's national elections just one month from now are hoping to appear tougher than Benjamin Netanyahu from the Likud Party, which has been leading in the polls. Israel's leaders must be banking on finally eliminating Hamas from power since the war has come just before Israeli elections and the inauguration of an American President who has spoken publicly about his support for Israel, but who still raises doubts among leaders in the Knesset.

Comments

[Magenta]

Israel violated the ceasefire first by attacking civilians. Arabs have the right of self-defence too.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/04/israel-gaza-hamas-hidden-agenda

"...the truce was thrown into jeopardy in November when the Israeli military killed six Hamas gunmen in a raid on Gaza... Between June 2007 and June 2008, Israeli attacks killed 68 Palestinian children and young people in Gaza...

In February, an Israeli missile killed four boys, aged eight to 14, playing football in the street in Jabalia. In April, Meyasar Abu-Me'tiq and her four children, aged one to five years old, were killed when an Israeli missile hit their house as they were having breakfast. Even during the ceasefire, Israel killed 22 people in Gaza, including two children and a woman...

But Israel did not end the siege that was wrecking the economy and causing desperate shortages of food, fuel and medicine... "When the Israelis pulled out... We didn't expect that we would have to beg to allow food in," she said.

Yossi Alpher, a former Israeli Mossad official and an ex-adviser on peace negotiations said the blockade of Gaza is a failed strategy that might have strengthened Hamas. "... It's collective punishment, humanitarian suffering... "I think people really believed that, if you starved Gazans, they will get Hamas to stop the attacks. It's repeating a failed policy, mindlessly."

[BigPictures]

Many world's problem requires a more effective world government, the United Nations. According to the UN resolution, if the Arabs renouce violence, Israel is obligated to return the Arabs land. Hamas should voice their complaints about Israel peacefully. For a weaker power, the path to its people's dignity is through non-violence principle of Ghandi and Martin Luther King. Israel should consult the UN regardiing how to deal with the Hamas' rocket attacks. The Abrabs Peace Initiative based on the UN resolution is a good principle for permanent Middle East peace. If Obama really wants to break away from Bush's policy and become a true leader of the world, he should find ways to strengthen the UN. One problem with the UN is it is not democratic, so a better UN would be more democratic. Many work needs to be done in international law. Until powerful nations decide to adhere internation laws, there will be no peace on earth. For example, the veto power of the UN security councile present a conflict of interests, which should be abondonded in order to be more democratic.

[papapj]

The claims by Israel and the U.S. that the current bloody invasion is a "response" to small-scale and largely ineffective rocket attacks on Israel from Gaza are obscene. They are like the method the U.S. used to justify the genocide of Native Americans by settlers and the military: according to the official narrative, that story "began" with claims of the first Native American scalping of some settler family or soldier"and then anything goes to "respond" to what is declared an atrocity. What came before"what provoked the scalping, the genocidal lies and brutality visited upon the indigenous peoples, and America"s actual agenda of forcible conquest and colonialization"all this is ignored and covered up.

And then I scan the US MSM, and almost unanimously the staunch support for Israel and this invasion appears, nary a word is said relating the numbers you outlined above by Shihab-Eldin and my heart bleeds while my tax dollars are used in support of it....

[tellusthetruth]

It is not just the Arab world who is sick and tired of Israel....
European and Americas numbers are growing as well.
Obama's silence has given the green light to the invasion....
I see no change on the horizon....the middle east has had a direct effect on national security and our economy....We continue to spend American $$'s to continue this oppression against the Palestinians while accepting the lies provided by Israel...they are still recruiting settlers with payments to sit on land that is not theirs to give...
I do hope he will soon speak out against this outrage!
Thanks for the article. It is refreshing to see something from another perspective other than the constant drumbeat of support for Israel's despicable actions.

[thamins]

Why do we need help of US or UN? Can Arab world take a dare step by stopping the oil product for 1 day in protest? If they do, the whole world will understand us. Israel will never do the incursion again. We want to end this violence permanently. Can we instruct Hamas and Fatah put the guns down and let them work for people without gun. We want peace not war. We can't live in violence. We need to save our generations.

[larry278]

I hope that all are aware that the IDF's ground forces invaded the Gaza Strip at about 2:00 PM, EST on 1/3/09. I have reason to believe that Israel was well aware that opinions expressed in this blog have been common among Muslims who have sympathy for Hamas. Israel hopes & expects to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Israel is more than tired of rockets from the Gaza Srtip landing in Israel. Israel isn't in a popularity contest in the Gaza Strip or much of the Islamic world. Israel seems to be prepared to continue to be hated by Palestinians & others in the Muslim world. Rightly or wrongly, Israel is bent upon driving Hamas out of power in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has escelated the level of its actions against the Gaza Strip. Israel hopes to destroy Hamas as a force in the Muslim world. We must expect more Israeli actions aganst Hamas till Hamas is destroyed or stops firing rockets into Israel. Neither Hamas nor Israel is willing to change. This invasion is going to be very bloody.

[Magenta]

There are some rewriting of history. Israel occupied Arab lands first.

"Before the end of the mandate and, therefore before any possible intervention by Arab states, the Jews, taking advantage of their superior military preparation and organization, had occupied...most of the Arab cities in Palestine before May 15, 1948. Tiberias was occupied on April 19, 1948, Haifa on April 22, Jaffa on April 28, the Arab quarters in the New City of Jerusalem on April 30, Beisan on May 8, Safad on May 10 and Acre on May 14, 1948...In contrast, the Palestine Arabs did not seize any of the territories reserved for the Jewish state under the partition resolution." British author, Henry Cattan, "Palestine, The Arabs and Israel."

====

"In 1948, at the moment that Israel declared itself a state, it legally owned a little more than 6 percent of the land of Palestine...After 1940, when the mandatory authority restricted Jewish land ownership to specific zones inside Palestine, there continued to be illegal buying (and selling) within the 65 percent of the total area restricted to Arabs.

Thus when the partition plan was announced in 1947 it included land held illegally by Jews... And after Israel announced its statehood, an impressive series of laws legally assimilated huge tracts of Arab land (whose proprietors had become refugees, and were pronounced 'absentee landlords' in order to expropriate their lands and prevent their return under any circumstances)." Edward Said, "The Question of Palestine."

[mattheweste]

In terms of sovereignty Israel didn't exist so it didn't even own 6%. I mean Japan might have bought 6% of America for all I know but that doesn't mean Japan has sovereignty of that 6%.

[MauriceBendix]

What is forgotten in all of this is the safety of American troops who are endangered by this irresponsible and reckless and brutal attack. We have security there because the mullahs have decided to wait us out. Iran and Muqtada Al-Sadr could punish us at any time. Don't forget that. Does Israel stand behind the U.S.A.?

[mattheweste]

The US clearly stands behind Israel.

[andyg]

Didn't they chose Hamas.

[eremite]

There are many Arab States that will applaud, albeit privately, if Israel defeats Hamas. They recognize that they will be next if Israel is eliminated. They do not look forward to Iran and its terrorist proxies running the Middle East and Egypt. As others have stated, the Palestinian civilians suffer most of all and the other Arab States can see what is in store for them if Iran prevails.

[MagisterLudi]

Insightful comment,. Eremite.
no one but no one in the world wishes to have the likes of Hamas on their border. Not even Syria or Iran.

[maddogbitesback]

No one but no one wants to have Israel on its border.

[RightsAtty]

Of course the losers will be the Palestinian people. Thanks to their Arab "friends" they are always the losers in this situation, as history well shows. When Britain was given trusteeship over the Palestine Mandate for the express purpose of creating a "Jewish National Homeland" there (after giving independence to more than a half-dozen new Arab states in the area following the collapse of the Ottoman empire), it instead took 2/3 of Palestine and created a new Arab Palestinian state called "Transjordan". It then failed to carry out its trusteeship, washed its hands, and turned the problem over to the UN. The UN proposed creating yet another Arab Palestinian state alongside a smaller Jewish state. The Arab nations urged the Palestinians to reject the proposal. Only Israel emerged. Egypt and Joran seized the portion set out for the Palestinian state and pushed the Palestinians into squalid refugee camps. They could have created a Palestinian state at anytime between 1948 and 1967, including a capital in East Jerusalem, but refused. The sad state of the Palestinian people is the fault of the Arab nations in the area -- not Israel.

[Pedestrian]

Since when does "moderate" = "dictators friendly to the west"?

There are no "moderate" leaders in the Middle East (nor in America, but that's another day, and another cup of coffee). Neither in Israel, Jordan, Egypt or ...... If they are moderate in one sense, they are all out radicals in another.

[eremite]

Arabs in Israel have more freedoms than in other Arab states. They even have the freedom to publicly support Hamas. an Arab in an Arab state would be killed for supporting Israel.

[maddogbitesback]

Yea for the freedoms Arab Israelis have. They cannot marry a Jew in Israel and they can never have a majority in the knesset. But they can support Hamas! Yea for freedom for Arab Israelis.

[WharfRat77ch]

While you are correct about the origin of the word 'Bantustan', if you study the politics of South Africa of the last century than the parallels in their effect are not indiscriminate. The word 'Bantustan', today, is often used in a pejorative sense when describing a country or region that lacks any real legitimacy or power, consists of several unconnected enclaves, and/or emerges from national or international gerrymandering. I think that is an accurate description of the current situation and likely to remain so into the future.

[DocWylie]

Apparently Gandi knew something Hamas doesn't.

[mattheweste]

Rachel Corrie.

[maddogbitesback]

Ghandi never got anywhere in his pleas for the untouchables. Hammas knows that.

[lainey]

The people of Palestine suffer tremendously because their governments (first Arafat and now Hamas) prefer money and notoriety over providing jobs, stability and safety for their own citizens. The people of Israel suffer tremendously because their notoriety comes at the cost of their lives--both physical and psychological. Both people deserve better. This struggle for ideology that is so radical that it prefers death to life, needs to be out of the Palestinian leadership. If the people living in Gaza had jobs--which their government provided and created--they would have something for which to strive. I feel for those wonderful Palestinian people that I have met who hate all of this fighting and wish to live successfully with their Israeli neighbors. I feel for all the wonderful Isreali people that I have met who hate the decades of attacks and wish to live successfully with their Palestinian neighbors. And there are many on both sides. Both people will do better when the world condemns ideology that promotes hatred and violence; the ideology that Hamas inflicts on its people.

[Cheesemelt]

Your interactive Gaza chart is very lovely, unfortunately without correlating it with how much Hamas is spending on munitions instead of those things that would improve the quality of life for every Gazan, it's nothing more than pro-Hamas propaganda.

[cdnnewsjunky]

I guess then we should correlate how much USA aid is being spent on killing innocent Palestinian women and children then!

[Cheesemelt]

"Consisering [sic] the amount of outright lies coming out of Israel, their credibility in all matters is now suspect, that includes the holocaust!"

Whereas you have no credibility whatsoever, as evidenced by this posting of yours.

[mattheweste]

If the 5th largest army in the world was exterminating YOUR people would you still say that defending your children was a non-issue?