Obama Bomaye!

"He's got to hit back," experts implore. "He's losing!" cry observers. Punishment is delivered over and over by a tough opponent, virtually unopposed by the brash and formerly confident competitor. Having survived bruising contests to get to the main event, concerns rise that he's lost his toughness, that an inability or unwillingness to attack will doom him against a hard-hitting opponent.

The scene, of course, is Zaire, 1974. George Foreman, a fearsome puncher and overwhelming favorite, had Muhammad Ali on the ropes from the beginning of their legendary "Rumble in the Jungle," and Ali put himself squarely in Foreman's sights, literally taunting Forman to hit him harder. It seemed a crazy strategy -- most boxers simply cannot survive the pounding of leaning back against the ropes and taking punch after punch. But Ali was working from a well-designed strategy, and he had the skill and the endurance to make sure the punches just barely missed their intended target. The glove instead of the eye; the temple instead of the jaw. Ali realized that if he could tire Foreman, get Foreman to punch and chase himself out of energy, he would have an opening. Viewers, perhaps especially the experts, were horrified that Ali refused to go on the attack in the initial rounds.

Through those early rounds, Ali did little to counter Foreman's onslaught, except for the intermittent jab or straight right to the face of an increasingly agitated Foreman. As the rounds dragged on, though, Foreman became visibly exhausted - and when Foreman threw everything he had at Ali early on and none of it worked, Ali made his move. Foreman, taxed by Ali's few but precisely landed early shots and drained from his movement and punches, was vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive Ali, who landed combinations in the later rounds. Eventually Ali went in for the knockout in the eighth, using a left hook to set up a straight right to Foreman's face, dropping him to the mat and ending the fight. Ali later dubbed this strategy the "rope-a-dope."

Senator Barack Obama does not seem to be angling for the political equivalent of a decision in the presidential race. His campaign is looking strategically over the coming months, recognizing that the campaign is just now moving past the early rounds, with "swing" voters still largely tuned out. Rather than letting loose his full arsenal, he is letting McCain punch himself out -- and McCain, like Foreman before him, is falling right into the trap. As long as McCain keeps diving to the gutter, he is neutralizing his most valuable attribute: a reputation for honesty and integrity. Meanwhile, as McCain destroys his own brand, Obama is dodging the punches. McCain and his surrogates are trying a new negative narrative practically every week, but according to the polls, nothing is sticking. Inexperienced, uppity, elitist, unpatriotic -- these rotating smears all fit under the general umbrella of "Other," but despite this barrage, the Obama campaign is deflecting the blows, readying themselves for the late rounds, the time that really matters.

It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes. But McCain is throwing everything he can think of and Obama isn't even behind in the polls. There has been, admittedly, a small but measurable shift in the national numbers, with McCain narrowing the deficit from five or six to two or three, roughly, but overwrought pundits are underplaying the strategic angle. It's understandable, as the story of the race is one of consistency and stability, neither of which increase TV ratings or newspaper circulation, so to make it interesting we have a constant Obama falter watch.

When pundits and commentators make hyperventilating claims about Obama's alleged campaign appeasement, it is vital to note that Obama has played this game before. It's not that he won't hit back -- even in the rope-a-dope it's important to mix in a few shots in the early rounds -- but those who are calling for an all-out assault against McCain have short memories; some of the same observers were saying the same thing when Obama trailed Senator Clinton in the Democratic primary. In that contest his campaign proved its ability to wait for the right moment, which should have earned it the benefit of the doubt for the current race. Obama has an unprecedented amount of money, an unprecedented ground game, and virtually all the fundamentals are in his favor. With all that going for him, progressives should be cheering that he seems to be playing for the eventual knockout, rather than calling for him to lower himself to meet McCain in the dirt for the short-term benefits.

Democrats learned an important lesson about fighting back in 2004 when Senator Kerry thought ignoring the shameful "Swift Boat" attacks would disarm them; this is not an exhortation to turn the other cheek, but rather to recognize the importance of time and place. In boxing and in politics, when an opponent is overreaches, it is vital to choose the right moment to counter. Ironically, Senator McCain is a self-described boxing fanatic, and someone with his appreciation for the sweet science should recognize the danger of punching so hard so early. Having thrown roundhouse shots this early (his immediately infamous claim that Obama is choosing to lose a war to win an election comes to mind), he'll likely have nothing left when the critical moments arrive.

Meanwhile, Obama has slipped in well-aimed shots occasionally, like Ali did in the early rounds, as with his recent "Original" ad, tying McCain to President Bush. Even as I wrote this piece over the past few days, the campaign's ads are increasingly tough on McCain, and the intensity will only increase after the convention. Some early hits are important to land occasionally, to further soften McCain's image, but an onslaught from Obama over the summer would have only served to tarnish his own reputation -- and without the benefit of having swing voters yet paying attention.

Even if Obama does not play it exactly right, he's still likely to win. But so much the better if he can head into office as a politician who didn't go negative early and often, who won on the strength of his ideas and his character rather than by dragging his opponent through the mud. It's a risky strategy, to be sure, but patience is often rewarded, especially in the face of an aggressive opponent. Obama is relying on a strategy that has already worked once this cycle, this time against an opponent who is increasingly flailing and desperate. In September and October, in the late campaign rounds, the knockout blow will come.

Comments

[cyndeewi]

Awesome Post!

[easmachine]

Great minds think alike. I believed all through the primary that Clinton who snatched the mantle of Rocky Balboa forgot that Balboa lost that fight, but in the movie as in real life, she gained acclaim as the "peoples (puma) champ". THAT was the rumble in the Jungle with Clinton pummeling BO in the rust belt, but, like Ali North Carolina and Oregon were the one-two combo that stopped her in her tracks..

Let's hope McCain is falling into the same trap." Rumble young man Rumble!"

[lagumbo]

wHAT an excellent piece. This is the same stragerity I have always thought OBAMA was using. Brilliant isn't it. I say let Mcsame and his campaign keep throwing the punches, and then Mcsame will hit himself in the face. Just like he has been doing all long. The more he talks the more he puts his foot and his $500 shoes in his mouth. So yes OBAMA BOMYAE[kill]

[1judy3]

Obama does know how to play the political card well, after all he is the product of the Illinois/Chicago political gang. Like the first Mayor Daley stated, " Vote early and vote often." Obama has the ACRON group registering voters ( voter registration by them questioned in 13 states). If he can find a way to get them thrown of the ballot, ACRON can register voters who should not vote.

[LightningJoe]

Convincing, Mr, Rossmiller. Some of us think the wrinkly old guy can't take the pace for long. His machine is assembled largely from worn-out spare parts, as well.

It's most often a mistake, for a candidate to stay "above the fray," but it hasn't taken much, to date, to take the fight back to McBush.

Americans, as a body, are stupid and lazy concerning our government (you know -- the one that we're supposed to be in charge of?). We gripe about the system being stolen by a vanishingly few special interests; our government has become a perverted travesty of itself, we say -- but we aren't about to revolt, even politically, to take it back.

Our country's been stolen. Oh, well.

Oh sorry, didn't see what time it was, the next round of Survivor reruns is about to start. I'll deal with the government some other decade...

---
Szzssstt! This is your brain, on television.

[AstroJohnny]

Leave us not forget the very likely ace in the hole. Senator McCain himself will almost surely self-destruct some time before the election. All the signs are there. It's happening already (although it has really been ongoing for some time even though the MSM hasn't given it it's due). With his well documented bad temper, his unbelievable lack of comprehension, and his pathetic attempts to paint Senator Obama as an elite celebrity, the wheels are about ready to come off what is left of the, hurumph, Straight Talk Express. Sit back and let McCain dig his own political grave. His own mouth will seal his fate.

[GrannyForObama]

I like the analogy. Keeping to the sports idea, I see Senator Obama as a very cool, assured marathon runner, conserving energy and strength for the last uphill climb to the finish. The McCain campaign has pegged this as another Dukakis or Kerry race and it is nothing like that. But that's ok. in fact it's terrific. There's no gift better - either in sports or politics - than being underestimated by your opponents.

Senator Obama always keeps his eye on the prize and holds on - right to the end. He has a genius for knowing where to put the effort and where not to. That's how he won the primaries. I believe that strong, calm, assured competency is just what this country needs right about now.

[cyndeewi]

I have to give it to Obama. He is a marathon runner.

[JNagarya]

Sports metaphors are really tiresome -- usually but not always when used by right-wing jocks who know diddley about politics, but are abel eot spell and grunt, "USA!" with all the jingoist -- supernationalist -- bluster they can muster as substitute for thought.

Worse is the use of an over-used paradigmatic cliche instance which -- as another noted -- resulted in short term victory and long-term health problems for the "victor".

Are we all so confused about the difference between politics and sports -- the latter being "harmless" entertainment which is too often infused with militarism -- and the reality that sports are mostly about "might makes right," whereas wisdom and rule of law are about moderation?

[afed27]

Why don't you columnists consider the fact that it might not be McCain's light punches at Obama which have kept the Obama poll numbers below what any Democrat's should be at this point in the battle? Could the reason be that now the voters have had a chance to take a breath, check out some facts, take a look at words versus deeds, listen to Obama's lackluster responses in the debates & the forums, that, possibly, the voters can now be wondering what all the hoopla about Obama was about? Can they be thinking that they may have misjudged this man & he is not the answer to our nation's problems? Could the voters be coming to their senses? If so, can the DNC do the same?

[breezi]

No, but nice try.

[Silveus]

You're funny.

[stryker]

Night after night I hear Pat Buchanan crying, "Why can't Obama close the deal?!"
How about, for all his years of experience, his POW record, etc, how come mccain can't get over 42-43%? While Obama is ahead by enough points that the election would be a landslide, mccain can't get move above what he has been throughout no matter what he throws at Obama. Guess mccain can't make enough "friends" to seal the deal.

[Donald Wolberg]

Perhaps the best trainers and knowledgable fight guys are Manny Stewart and Teddy Atlas, and both point out that the best boxing tactic is not to get hit at all. Late in his career, Ali passed ropeadope off as a tactic, when in fact it was an excuse for lost legs, stamina and speed. The beatings he took from Joe Frazier, Kenny Nortonand the pounding of Foreman likely contributed to Ali's current Parkinson symptomology, while Mr. Foreman is a television and advertising fixture with a very clear mind and physical attributes.

And so it may well be with Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, and lest we forget who is really the better ring tactician, it is Ms. Clinton. Mr. Obama's ropeadope of "nuance" has not stood him well in the political ring of late and the Clinton camp can put forward an argument that Ms Clinton in fact was the primary election winner, although the caucus loser. Mr. McCain, down for the political knockout count again and again has shown the resilience of Mr. Foreman and rebounded. Perhaps like Mr. Foreman, who went on to become the oldest heavyweight champion ever with his knockout of Michael Moorer (trained and managed by Teddy Atlas), Mr. McCain will deliver the knockout of Mr. Obabam and become the oldest President ever. Boxing is the "sweet science" and not getting hit matters. Mr. Obama is getting hit too much.

[Steveonline]

The rope-a-dpe was a high-risk trick play that Ali needed to use because Foreman was younger and stronger and Ali understood he could not win going round for round. I doubt that the Obama team has that belief, so it is doubtful that this is their strategy. I believe they think its best to take the high road. WRONG! Obama needs to hit 'em early, hit 'em hard and hit 'em where it hurts. Show the American people some spunk! Obama is playing more Stevenson than Ali.

[DaveC19]

"It would be different, of course, if McCain were landing his punches. If Obama were trailing in the polls, if the narratives had erased his lead, he could not afford to lean back against the ropes."

Excuse me but has this guy seen the recent Zogby polls? He IS behind. Kind of shoots holes in this whole article.

[error9900]

By recent Zogby polls, you mean 1 poll? If you look at polls with larger sample sizes, Obama is still leading.

[Donald Wolberg]

The statistics are that within the +/- factors, in almost all polls of 3-5%, no one is aead or behind and that is the biggest fear of the Democratic Party. The stats mean that at 50/50 and +/- 5% , either candidate can be 55/45 or anywhere in between. However, uniformly, in polls of voters most likely to vote, Mr. McCain wins by 3-5% beyont the error number.

[MrTessier]

I hope you are right! I think one of the early Tyson fights would be a much better analogy. Unlike Ali, Tyson was overwhealmingly favored (as Obama was), was a relative newcomer to the ring (as Obama is), but had such incredible talent that he was almost considered unbeatable (as Obama is/was). Early on Tyson used the boxing skills, that later deteriorated, to set up that one perfect shot. And when he won the title, it was such a devestating victory that the sport was changed afterwards.

I'd be happy with any victory, but I agree that not getting dirty is by far the preferrable method. McCain has indeed sullied his once stellar name, as was probably inevitable, but it's a shame nonetheless.

[breakfast]

So what are you saying?

You think in the late rounds, with the fight on the line, Obama will surge to victory by reversing all his Republican-lite positions?

[nighthawk808]

It's sad that you're the only one on this page of comments to have pointed out that Obama has probably hurt himself with his shift to the right more than McCain ever could. After locking up the nomination, Obama has turned from the "change" candidate to the "the more things change, the more they stay the same" candidate, which probably lost him more votes on the left than McCain has gained on the right. After his sellout on FISA, I went from a strong Obama supporter to someone who won't be voting for him, and I doubt I'm the only one. If I wanted to vote for a republican in democrat clothing, I'd have supported Hillary. I expected better from Obama, and he failed to deliver.

That said, Obama will still win the election. Sadly, I make this prediction because so few voters care anymore about principles and taking stands when it's tough to do so, which is something Obama has shown me that he cannot and/or will not do. Then again, who can blame him? After all, Kucinich is one of the only politicians whose deeds match their words these days, and look at how much ridicule he gets for it. In an age of Faux News, it's apparent that Americans prefer soft BS to hard facts, which is probably why there are so many out there that actually believe Obama is a liberal. Obama is about as liberal as Richard Nixon, and I'm not being sarcastic.

[iyamchazz]

This analysis of the campaign so far is spot on. With Ali now expressing the desire to be at the convention in Denver is telling. Bomaye indeed!