With the fall of Swat to the Taliban, the attack on the Sri Lankancricket team and the killing of the policemen, Pakistan has plungedinto a major crisis of confidence. On March 16th, the Muslim Leagueand Jamaat-i-Islami will lead a protest march to Islamabad. If thereis bloodshed, Pakistani generals may be forced to think of interveningagain.
Pakistan would be back to square one and its democratic dreams onceagain dashed.
President Barack Obama would then be faced with a difficult choice: tosupport a military dictatorship or challenge it and push shakyPakistan further into crisis.
It is critical for Americans to therefore understand why they need toensure Pakistan's viability and integrity before the country goes overthe brink: Pakistan is a much larger nation than either Iraq orAfghanistan with a total population of over 170 million people;Pakistan is nuclear; it has an established army with a coherentcommand and control structure; and above all it has a long border withAfghanistan which at the moment allows Taliban to move freely acrosseither side to play havoc with its enemies.
Americans must understand the significance of the fall of Swat, andwhy Pakistan must take it back by reestablishing the authority of itsjudicial and civil service structures. If this does not happen soonthe Taliban will surely move to the fertile valleys of Mardan to thesouth of Swat and Peshawar will fall like a ripe fruit. America's landroute to Afghanistan through Peshawar will be closed and Afghanistanwill be imperiled. If Pakistan is lost today Afghanistan goestomorrow.
While Obama has given Afghanistan as his top priority and we hear somuch of the "surge" which will bring an additional 30,000 US troops tothat country, Pakistan seems to be treated almost like a neglectedstepchild. Yet, the paradox is that the war in Afghanistan can only bewon if Pakistan remains stable and secure.
Losing Pakistan, therefore, is not an option.
That is why Washington needs to develop an effective and long termstrategy for Pakistan. For a start it must stop the senseless dronestrikes in Pakistan, which may kill a few targeted people but end upcreating widespread ill will toward Americans.
Washington should use its generous aid to Pakistan more wisely and tocreate confidence among Pakistanis ask former President PervezMusharraf to account for the 15 billion dollars the Americans gave himsince 9/11.
Thinking long-term, Washington must do everything possible to helpPakistan avoid another martial law. If the military were to take over,the democracy promised at the time of the country's creation in 1947by M. A. Jinnah, known in Pakistan as the Quaid-i-Azam, would notmaterialize.
Jinnah, the quintessential founding father, embodied the modern Muslimdemocrat. He championed the causes of women, minorities, and theconstitution, and acted as a beacon to an entire generation ofPakistanis. Jinnah showed that it was possible to balance modernitywith the traditions of Islam.
That vision made sense. After all, the vast majority of the countrywas -- and is -- Muslim. There were, however, some who would have wanted amuch more literal interpretation of Islam. These, in time, wouldgrow in strength and one of their strains would take the form of theTaliban. Although many literalists have a reasoned and balancedapproach to governance, the Taliban have little patience with girlsschools, music shops, and other expressions of what it sees asdangerous modernity.
In the early days of Pakistan it appeared as if the modernists likeJinnah had won the day. Today with the shariah imposed on Swat itappears as if the pendulum is swinging toward the literalists.
However, moaning about the shariah in the West does not find aresonance in Pakistani ears, except among the Western elite in thecities. For most of the people in Swat, the shariah means law andorder and justice. That is why the government of Pakistan has toreclaim its capacity to provide these for the people of Swat.Pakistan's leaders must understand what is at stake.
Obama needs to sit down with Zardari and work out a strategy to helpPakistan move and flourish on the democratic path. This he can do byreminding Zardari of Jinnah, who is still widely respected inPakistan. The democratic process should encourage more Jinnahs, whichin turn will automatically neutralize those Pakistanis who terrorizetheir fellow countrymen by using -- or misusing -- religion.
But Obama must ensure that more than lip service is paid to theconcept of Jinnah's democratic Pakistan. Jinnah actively foughtagainst nepotism and corruption, which flourish in Zardari's Pakistan.Obama must encourage Zardari to ensure that law and order is notcompromised at any cost.
This can be done by the re-institution of the judiciary and the civiladministration, which Musharraf almost destroyed.
Zardari also needs to vigorously follow the principles set by Jinnahand work toward establishing a healthy democratic opposition. FormerPrime Minister Nawaz Sharif, for example, who represents the MuslimLeague, the second largest party in Pakistan, need to be treated as anhonorable opposition leader and not as a target for the government.
All this may seem too much for Obama, beset by economic woes at home,but he has staked his reputation on winning Afghanistan. He cannot doso without saving Pakistan