Dishonest Intelligence

In December of 2007, I wrote an article about the National Intelligence Estimate that had just concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program back in 2003. The immediate effect of this pollyannaish report was to diminish the need for tough sanctions against Iran and to take the military option off the table. We now know that the conclusion reached in the report was categorically false and that those who issued the report knew it was false. I entitled my December 2007 article "Stupid Intelligence," (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/stupid-intelligence_b_75663.html) because I argued that its author had fallen hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed by Iran.

The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use...[T]he second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.

It was clear to many perceptive readers of the report, and to most other intelligence agencies, that Iran had simply and deceptively opted for the second track, and had certainly not abandoned its nuclear weapons program.

It now turns out that at the time this "stupid intelligence" estimate was released, our intelligence agencies were aware that the Iranians were building a secret military facility buried deep in the mountains near the holy city of Qom. The United States recently disclosed the existence of this facility (after Iran was forced to acknowledge its existence) and its firm conclusion that it could be used only for the development of a nuclear weapons program. If the intelligence community knew then what they know now, then its 2007 National Intelligence Estimate was not only stupid. It was dishonest.

It seems clear in retrospect, as it seemed clear to me at the time, that those who released this deeply flawed report had a political agenda. As I wrote two years ago:

My own view is that the authors of the report were fighting the last war. No, not the war in Iraq, but rather what they believe was Vice President Cheney's efforts to go to war with Iran. This report surely takes the wind out of those sails. But that was last year's unfought war. Nobody in Washington has seriously considered attacking Iran since Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates replaced Cheney as the foreign policy power behind the throne.

Whatever the agenda was, it is improper--indeed it is illegal--for intelligence agencies to try to influence policy through a hidden agenda. Their job is to report truthfully to the elected policy makers so that they can make policy.

The time has come to withdraw the false and dangerous 2007 report, to admit it was wrong, and substitute an intelligent, honest, objective and up to date report on how close Iran now is to being able to construct a deliverable nuclear bomb. The issue of how to deal with the threat posed by an apocalyptic, terrorist nation about to obtain nuclear weapons is too important to be left to politicized intelligence agencies with hidden agendas.

 

 

Comments

[Fein]

This assessment goes against 100% of the world's intelligence agencies.

So, in other words, "who're you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes."

The primary intention of this post is, that 'if you repeat a lie enough, it becomes the truth.'

[Freenation]

let us see:

iran : 0 nukes
israel : 200+ nukes

yet alan and his fellow hawks keep wasting the bandwidth trying to prove how iran govt is a rogue nation and at the same time failing to discuss 'civilians' casualty..­.

obama should not cave in to this war mongering and should stand tough to diplomatic route, if it causes some ratling of feathers so be it...

[outnow]

Iran must prove a negative, according to Alan D. Intention to do anh act is a state of mind. Since Alan deems the entire country as being evil, why bother with evidence?

[nessus]

I'm going to keep on this because it seems vaguely important. Mr. Dershowitz has twice now called this NIE and it's authors stupid and possibly dishonest because it does not take into account Iran's civilian nuclear enrichment program. In fact, the report discusses Iran's civilian nuclear enrichment program twice in the space of two pages.

So I ask you, Mr. Dershowitz - what part of:

"Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example, Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing­."

did you not understand? Did you actually read the NIE or did you rely on media reports about the conclusions? Was your assertion therefore "stupid" or "dishonest"?

[WarSkeptic]

So based on no evidence, and having no expertize on the issue.
You have concluded that the experts were wrong?

[outnow]

Attorneys could argue either side of an argument based upon which side pays them. I could make a case either way. Iranians are nice people but they have a hawkish-sounding leader, and the same can be said about Israelis. Verification would seem easy enough for international bodies set up for that purpose. I cannot read the minds of Iranians. Even if we were to presume evil intentions because Iranians are inherently "evil" as Alan Dershowitz states, we still need proof of present capability and a means of delivery. As with Iraq, what is the hurry? Oil and territorial dominance would be one motive.

[kbee819]

Exactly!.

[nessus]

It seems to me that this report is decidedly not stupid, and is dishonest primarily in omission of emphasis. I would almost suspect that one or more of the authors wanted to ensure that the NIE could not be quoted selectively as support for a military strike against Iran in the last year of a shaky and deeply unpopular Administration. Like it or not, legal or not, NIE’s have nearly always been political documents.

It seems that we’ve known about this second facility for some time but just recently been able to prove that it was a weapons facility. The Iranians got wind that we were about to go public with it and decided to try to preempt us. However the simple fact of the matter is that the existence of the facility gives us great leverage both with Europe and Russia to close off Iran’s traditional diplomatic escape routes, and against the increasingly illegitimate government of Iran facing further internal repercussions from the revealing of a covert weapons facility.

[chlai88]

Intelligence is expedient. Bush & Cheney rightly knows they are in no shape for war with Iran then so they tone it down to save their rightwing face and their hides from the predators of their own party.

[Doofus]

Ironically, Iran isn't really doing anything very different
from what Israel has done, but they aren't as far along.
I'd be way more worried about what Iran would do than
what Israel might do, until one side or the other 'goes rogue'.

Nuclear weapons are just the coolest weapons ever,
as long as you don't actually get around to using them.

Meanwhile, we are STILL living in interesting times.

[altohone]

Dishonest intelligence is what got us into Iraq.

Who touted that bad intelligence too?

[dadw5boys]

Do you report a site before it is operational ?

Before you build it? After you build it ? Before equipment is in place ?

Or after production begins ?

Screwy rules of reporting.

[AJH]

On the other hand it is their job to keep classified data classified. And when writting a report that will be unclassified in portion to put a conclusion in it that could only be supported by information which needs to remain classified what conclusion do you write.

I think the real question is were the intelligence committee leadership accurately briefed on what they knew and what they were investigating and why they were investigating it. Perhaps in the portions remianing classified even. And I haven't seen any letters from them complaining they weren't kept up to speed.

Also many of the statements were accurate misdirections.

"F. We assess with moderate confidence that Iran probably would use covert facilities—
rather than its declared nuclear sites—for the production of highly enriched uranium for a
weapon. A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium
conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably
were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been
restarted through at least mid-2007."
True site is not believed active

"D. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could
be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example,
Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing­."
True site was being built ultimate purpose not proven but could be used

even production timeline remains accurate should desire be there.

[nessus]

"The United States recently disclosed the existence of this facility (after Iran was forced to acknowledge its existence) and its firm conclusion that it could be used only for the development of a nuclear weapons program. If the intelligence community knew then what they know now, then its 2007 National Intelligence Estimate was not only stupid. It was dishonest.­"

That "If" is quite significant, since the intelligence community did not reach a "firm conclusion" that the facility could only be used for weaponization until recently, when the facility was complete enough for unique equipment to be moved into it.

[ouroborous]

There is NO proof of nuclear weapons, or research on nuclear weapons. Iran has done a little saber rattling, plus reported to the IAEA a uranium enrichment facility (as required by treaty).

Where, exactly, is the smoking gun?

How, exactly, is this different from the warmongering that led us to invade Iraq?

[Ppossom]

Iran is, at ANY time now, SIX WEEKS away from production of a plutonium bomb fueled from the spent enriched uranium fuel rods that George Bush approved for shipment from Russia to Iran on Dec 17, 2007.

Uranium enrichment is the RICH MAN'S path to nuclear weapons.

Why do I think Dershowitz is disingenuous?

[BassMonk]

Alan,

We have proof of enrichment at another facility besides the one everyone knew about. How did you get from there to weapon production?