In December of 2007, I wrote an article about the National Intelligence Estimate that had just concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program back in 2003. The immediate effect of this pollyannaish report was to diminish the need for tough sanctions against Iran and to take the military option off the table. We now know that the conclusion reached in the report was categorically false and that those who issued the report knew it was false. I entitled my December 2007 article "Stupid Intelligence," (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-dershowitz/stupid-intelligence_b_75663.html) because I argued that its author had fallen hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed by Iran.
The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use...[T]he second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.
It was clear to many perceptive readers of the report, and to most other intelligence agencies, that Iran had simply and deceptively opted for the second track, and had certainly not abandoned its nuclear weapons program.
It now turns out that at the time this "stupid intelligence" estimate was released, our intelligence agencies were aware that the Iranians were building a secret military facility buried deep in the mountains near the holy city of Qom. The United States recently disclosed the existence of this facility (after Iran was forced to acknowledge its existence) and its firm conclusion that it could be used only for the development of a nuclear weapons program. If the intelligence community knew then what they know now, then its 2007 National Intelligence Estimate was not only stupid. It was dishonest.
It seems clear in retrospect, as it seemed clear to me at the time, that those who released this deeply flawed report had a political agenda. As I wrote two years ago:
My own view is that the authors of the report were fighting the last war. No, not the war in Iraq, but rather what they believe was Vice President Cheney's efforts to go to war with Iran. This report surely takes the wind out of those sails. But that was last year's unfought war. Nobody in Washington has seriously considered attacking Iran since Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates replaced Cheney as the foreign policy power behind the throne.
Whatever the agenda was, it is improper--indeed it is illegal--for intelligence agencies to try to influence policy through a hidden agenda. Their job is to report truthfully to the elected policy makers so that they can make policy.
The time has come to withdraw the false and dangerous 2007 report, to admit it was wrong, and substitute an intelligent, honest, objective and up to date report on how close Iran now is to being able to construct a deliverable nuclear bomb. The issue of how to deal with the threat posed by an apocalyptic, terrorist nation about to obtain nuclear weapons is too important to be left to politicized intelligence agencies with hidden agendas.
Nuclear program of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
BBC NEWS | Middle East | Q&A: Iran and the nuclear issue
US investigator exposes Iran's nuclear weapons 'shopping list ...
So, in other words, "who're you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes."
The primary intention of this post is, that 'if you repeat a lie enough, it becomes the truth.'
iran : 0 nukes
israel : 200+ nukes
yet alan and his fellow hawks keep wasting the bandwidth trying to prove how iran govt is a rogue nation and at the same time failing to discuss 'civilians' casualty...
obama should not cave in to this war mongering and should stand tough to diplomatic route, if it causes some ratling of feathers so be it...
So I ask you, Mr. Dershowitz - what part of:
"Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example, Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing."
did you not understand? Did you actually read the NIE or did you rely on media reports about the conclusions? Was your assertion therefore "stupid" or "dishonest"?
You have concluded that the experts were wrong?
It seems that we’ve known about this second facility for some time but just recently been able to prove that it was a weapons facility. The Iranians got wind that we were about to go public with it and decided to try to preempt us. However the simple fact of the matter is that the existence of the facility gives us great leverage both with Europe and Russia to close off Iran’s traditional diplomatic escape routes, and against the increasingly illegitimate government of Iran facing further internal repercussions from the revealing of a covert weapons facility.
from what Israel has done, but they aren't as far along.
I'd be way more worried about what Iran would do than
what Israel might do, until one side or the other 'goes rogue'.
Nuclear weapons are just the coolest weapons ever,
as long as you don't actually get around to using them.
Meanwhile, we are STILL living in interesting times.
Who touted that bad intelligence too?
Before you build it? After you build it ? Before equipment is in place ?
Or after production begins ?
Screwy rules of reporting.
I think the real question is were the intelligence committee leadership accurately briefed on what they knew and what they were investigating and why they were investigating it. Perhaps in the portions remianing classified even. And I haven't seen any letters from them complaining they weren't kept up to speed.
Also many of the statements were accurate misdirections.
"F. We assess with moderate confidence that Iran probably would use covert facilities—
rather than its declared nuclear sites—for the production of highly enriched uranium for a
weapon. A growing amount of intelligence indicates Iran was engaged in covert uranium
conversion and uranium enrichment activity, but we judge that these efforts probably
were halted in response to the fall 2003 halt, and that these efforts probably had not been
restarted through at least mid-2007."
True site is not believed active
"D. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could
be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example,
Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing."
True site was being built ultimate purpose not proven but could be used
even production timeline remains accurate should desire be there.
That "If" is quite significant, since the intelligence community did not reach a "firm conclusion" that the facility could only be used for weaponization until recently, when the facility was complete enough for unique equipment to be moved into it.
Where, exactly, is the smoking gun?
How, exactly, is this different from the warmongering that led us to invade Iraq?
Uranium enrichment is the RICH MAN'S path to nuclear weapons.
Why do I think Dershowitz is disingenuous?
We have proof of enrichment at another facility besides the one everyone knew about. How did you get from there to weapon production?