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Alan Dershowitz

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There Will Never Be Peace if Iran Gets the Bomb

Posted: 11/29/10 12:13 PM ET

Now that the WikiLeaks reveal widespread Arab support for the military option against Iran's nuclear facilities to be put on the table, the time has come to reassess United States policy toward the Ahmadinejad regime.

Even if Israel freezes settlement building, the Palestinians come to the negotiating table and an agreement is reached about borders, refugees and Jerusalem, there will still be no real peace in the Middle East -- if Iran continues on its determined path toward developing deliverable nuclear weapons. And despite noble efforts by the United States to bring Israel and the Palestinians to the peace process, the inability to achieve a real peace will be largely the fault of the deeply flawed American policy toward Iran.

The policy of the United States seems to be that a nuclear Iran is inevitable, that sanctions may delay but not prevent the Iranians from developing the bomb, and that a policy of containment is the best we can hope for. But containment is not a policy; it is an admission of failure. A nuclear Iran cannot be contained, because it operates largely through surrogates such as Hezbollah, Hamas and other terrorist groups. It can direct these surrogates to take actions that do not leave Iranian fingerprints. Currently these actions are limited to Hezbollah aiming rockets at Israel's heartland and Hamas firing improvised rockets at Israeli civilians. If these groups -- which oppose any peace with Israel -- could operate under the protection of an Iranian nuclear umbrella, they would constantly provoke retaliatory and preventive military actions. These actions might well force the Palestinian Authority to violate agreements they made with Israel. Moreover, an Israeli population constantly under the threat of a nuclear Holocaust from a nation whose leader has called for Israel to be wiped off the map may demand that preventive military action be taken. Any such action by Israel would provoke an immediate response from Hezbollah and Hamas, if not from the Palestinian Authority.

Nor would a nuclear Iran limits its mischief to Israel. Now that it has obtained medium range ballistic missiles from North Korea, it might feel adventurous enough to export nuclear terrorism to other parts of the Middle East, North Africa and Europe. President Barack Obama understated the threat when he said that a nuclear Iran would be "a game changer." It would be unmitigated disaster, threatening world peace, putting an end to any hope of nuclear non-proliferation, and engendering the greatest arms race in modern history.

The fault for this disaster would be equally shared by the Bush and the Obama administrations. Under George Bush's watch, the United States issued its notorious National Security Estimate of November 2007, which essentially denied that Iran was seeking to develop nuclear weapons. This report was known to be false at the time it was issued since American intelligence became aware of the nuclear weapons facility at Qum before the report was issued. The publication of this report sent a powerful message to Iran: The Americans have fallen for your bait and switch game in which you hide your capacity to develop nuclear weapons under the cover of purported civilian use. This has encouraged the Iranians to move full-throttle ahead on their program. At the same time the Bush Administration changed Israel's green light to yellow and then to red, as it related to United States approval of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. The end result was that Iran felt no real constraints on continuing to develop its nuclear weapons capacity in a pretextual civilian context.

The Obama administration appears to have taken any military option off the table, relying instead on its enhanced package of sanctions. Secretary of Defense Gates has been explicit about this and the Iranians have been listening. It makes absolutely no sense to take the military option off the table, even -- perhaps especially -- if one is reluctant to deploy it. As George Washington taught us in his first address to Congress: "To be prepared for war is one of the most effectual means of preserving peace." Israel's Prime Minister echoed President Washington when he recently said, "The simple paradox is this: If the international community, led by the United States, hopes to stop Iran's nuclear program without resorting to military action, it will have to convince Iran that it is prepared to take such action." What is it that American policymakers don't seem to understand about this self-evident proposition?

The man most responsible for both the Bush and Obama administration's failure with regard to Iran is Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, whose tenure has straddled both the issuance of the false National Security Estimate and the decision to take the military option off the table. He is Iran's favorite American facilitator. Although he soon plans to leave office, there are no signs -- certainly none visible to Iran -- that his failed policies with regard to Iran's nuclear program will end with his too long tenure.

The Biblical prophet cautioned "peace, peace and there is no peace." This tragic prophecy will become a sad reality if Israel and the Palestinian Authority make great sacrifices in an effort to bring peace to their people, only to see that peace shattered by a short-sighted American policy that allows Iran to hold a nuclear sword of Damocles over the entire region.

Professor Alan Dershowitz's latest book is a novel, The Trials of Zion.

 
 
 
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beauwulff
I'm dyin' last
05:06 PM on 12/04/2010
Another charter member of the "Bomb, bomb Iran" contingent.
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06:42 PM on 12/04/2010
you got that right
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10:18 AM on 12/01/2010
The real reason Zionists want US to fight a war with Iran, is so Israel can steal more Palestinian land.

Not to mention, Israel is incapable of even beating Hezbollah in a fight, without a massive military strikes on Lebanese civilans.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2010/11/27/can-israel-defeat-hezbollah-in-the-coming-war/
04:04 PM on 12/01/2010
Fact on the ground: Palestinian people-hood does not exist even as we speak and by their own words.. Palestine was never a sovereign power and was allocated to the Jewish people by the Legaue of Nation after WWI. The current Arabs who occupy the Jewish people's home land in Judea and Samaria iare comprised mostly of several thugs, terrorist organizations who fight each other and some of whom are sophisticated looking like Fatah, Hamas and Mahmoud Abass et al.

Israel took and take no man's land but must liberate her own full fledged legal right to that land, Israel/Palestine per the 1922 Palestine Mandate doc., a valid document to date.

The Arab world received 99.9% of the land mass after WWI, but that is not enough for them they want that minuscule piece of dirt the Jews have, Greedy!! And for this little piece of land, Israel/Palestine, the Arabs scarifies even their own. Shame! Arab should be generous. Individually some of them are. If the Arab world cherish the Jews, they would benefit greatly and not be so backward despite all their resources.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheRock Barkat
04:21 PM on 12/04/2010
Oh here we go with dissolved world bodies that no longer exist and were never implemented

There is a limit to ones generosity. Offering one food, offering them a glass of water or coffee or a cigarette, but not a country on top of the heads of other people. Sorry.
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Kramerica-Industries
And with Darren’s help, we’ll get that chicken
08:45 AM on 12/01/2010
For those claiming Iran nukes are no danger to US only Israel.
German Die Welt Iran plans to build a missile base in Venezuela
Iran wants on Venezuelan soil as a basis for medium-range missiles up and deepen the strategic cooperation with the regime of Hugo Chávez.
Nach Informationen dieser Zeitung hatte der Sicherheitsrat eine gemeinsame Militäreinrichtung auf venezolanischem Boden vorgeschlagen, um die Abschreckungsmacht des Iran gegen den Westen zu vergrößern. According to information of this newspaper, the Security Council had proposed a joint military facility on Venezuelan soil to increase the deterrent power of Iran against the West. Die Kooperation wäre eine Möglichkeit für den Iran, eine strategische Basis auf dem südamerikanischen Kontinent zu errichten – im Hinterhof der USA. The cooperation would be a way for Iran, a strategic base in the South American continent to build - in the backyard of the United States.

http://translate.google.co.il/translate?u=www.welt.de%2Fpolitik%2Fausland%2Farticle11219574%2FIran-plant-Bau-einer-Raketenstellung-in-Venezuela.html&sl=de&tl=en&hl=&ie=UTF-8
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09:39 AM on 12/01/2010
Gaping hole with you assertion, Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons.
04:12 PM on 12/01/2010
Iran's nuclear plant to go on line by late January.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/27/AR2010112701069.html

Five More Nuclear Facilities Discovered in Iran

source: http://nocompromisemedia.com/2009/09/29/five-more-nuclear-facilities-discovered-in-iran/

Apocalypse Now

Good Night, Israel

Ayatollah Vows: “We Will Make Our Enemies Blind”

by M.T., a No Compromise Media Contributor -- http://current.com/12o5e4c
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MarcEdward
likes all cats more than most people
10:14 AM on 12/01/2010
"For those claiming Iran nukes are no danger to US only Israel."

I don't think Iranian nukes (which do not exist nor will exist for a long time, and will not be a surprise) are a danger to Israel OR the USA.

"Iran plans to build a missile base in Venezuela"

Monroe Doctrine - won't happen.
Better luck next time.
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08:09 AM on 12/01/2010
" Israel to be wiped off the map "

"THE PROOF:



The full quote translated directly to English:



"The Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time".



Word by word translation:



Imam (Khomeini) ghoft (said) een (this) rezhim-e (regime) ishghalgar-e (occupying) qods (Jerusalem) bayad (must) az safheh-ye ruzgar (from page of time) mahv shavad (vanish from). "



http://www.campaigniran.org/casmii/index.php?q=node/10828
08:34 AM on 12/01/2010
How about some "quotable quotes" from Ahmadinejad. Please include the banners draped on missiles on parade in Teheran.
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09:07 AM on 12/01/2010
Banners on missiles are harmless compared to cluster bombs, white phosphorus and depleted uranium that Israel uses on civilians.
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tulsey
I was Bill Hicks.
07:50 PM on 11/30/2010
Iran's nuke program peacefull or otherwised is dispursed amongst the civilian population and pretty much untouchable. Any saber rattling is simple political posturing. Surrounded by bullies how would you play it? No Nuke Iraq: get invaded. Got Nukes North Korea: not so much invasion.
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04:37 PM on 11/30/2010
If the US or Israel attacks Iran, there will not be peace, everything else is lies.
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messy
artist, writer, adventurer
04:44 PM on 12/04/2010
You think there's "peace" now? Abbas announced his intent to go out of business and GIVE Israel the West Bank. Israel should refuse.
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SamSeven
You're either with Humanity or you're not.
03:54 PM on 11/30/2010
Mr.Dershowitz, I was wondering when you were going to enter the debate.

Yes Iran is evil and Israel is good. It doesnt matter if Israel never declares its nuclear amunitions; it doesnt matter it doesnt sign the NPT; it doesnt matter no IAEA officials are allowed into see Dimona' it's doesnt matter Israel dumps its nuclear waste in Palestinians villages.

The bottom line, Israel doesnt want to loose power and control over the region. If Iran has nukes it levels the playing field. The US/UK/Israel wont attack Iran with nukes. North Korea is a perfect example. Either the Middle East is a nuke free zone or every country gets one. Israel is afraid peace might break out and actually sit down and solve the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. It's amazing the Western powers have been complict in Israeli war crimes for all these years. Moreover it is amazing that the Western populations have put up with Israeli war crimes after all these years.
09:42 PM on 11/30/2010
Israel war crime? you must e kidding. Can you be more specific, at least name one war crime? Shame on you! Israel is merely acts out of self defense in the face of the horror and terror she has endured! Look deep in the mirror of the Arab world and the Jew haters everywhere! Israel repeatedly extend her hand to peace, but with who? with those who continually and relentlessly want to see her demise. Palestinian nationhood does not exist even as we speak, they are Arabs of all dialects, Saudis, Lebanese, Iraqis, Tunisians, etc. They don't even get along themselves, that is why peace is so remote. The so called Arab Palestinians are being used as pawns by the Arab world as its ultimate goal is to obliterate Israel, get real and stop parroting the terrorist false narrative. .
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
12:45 AM on 12/01/2010
there was the sabra and shatila massacre for starters--
http://www.indictsharon.net/massacres.shtml

the attack on Lebanon was marked by numerous attacks on civilians and civilian areas and indiscriminate use of heavy fire against civilian targets. Israel's actions were condemned by
Human rights watch

http://www.asiantribune.com/index.php?q=node/1398

Amnesty international also condemned Israel for war crimes in Lebanon:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/amnesty-israel-committed-war-crimes-in-lebanon-campaign-1.195683

Israeli attacks on Gaza have been declared as war crimes by Richard Falk, the UN special observer in Gaza.
http://www.thenation.com/article/israels-war-crimes.
08:37 AM on 12/01/2010
100:1 odds in population; even greater odds in wealth and land area. And that is just the Arabs vs. Israel, excluding the entire Muslim world. Hardly a "level playing field."
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SamSeven
You're either with Humanity or you're not.
11:16 AM on 12/01/2010
We didnt nuke each other during the Cold War even though between the US and Russia. We didnt die then. I dont expect Iran is that fanatical to nuke Israel or vice versa. The fallout would effect the entire region and be a complete wasteland.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
12:56 PM on 11/30/2010
Most Arab leaders want the US to tackle Iran, even to wage a war against the country, but evidently do not say so publicly for fear of Arab public opinion and reaction.
Confidential cables by American diplomats in the region, revealed by WikiLeaks, expose weak and fearful Arab leaders who are dependent on US protection against real and imagined fears over Iran's potential possession of nuclear arms and its influence in the Arab world.
Although the hostility of Arab leaders towards Iran is not a secret, the documents published by a number of Western newspapers show that some Arab governments appear more concerned with Iran than Israel; for while Israel is seen as an enemy that occupies Arab land and may cause instability in the region, Iran is feared as a country that could mobilise Arab public support against their leaders.
In their conversations with American officials, Arab leaders refer to Iran as "a snake", "evil" and "an octopus whose tentacles need to be severed" - presumably they are far more cautious in their labelling of Israel when talking to US diplomats.
 
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2010/11/20101129223858642223.html
02:32 PM on 11/30/2010
thanks for posting. It is kinda strange that the leaks only talk about iran and not israel. What all of a sudden none of our embassies had anything to say in cable about Israel? This is more reason to believe that the leaked documents are the documents that help US with its strategy for Iran.
Maybe they were leaked on purpose by US intelligence agencies.
12:26 PM on 11/30/2010
"Exporting nuclear terrorism", what does that even mean? And Hamas and Hezbollah "operating under an Iranian nuclear umbrella"... well, the Vietcong operated under a Russian nuclear umbrella, that didn't stop us messing with them, and they didn't win because of it.

All nuclear weapons do is keep you from getting nuked. Iran's government knows that a nuclear strike on Israel will bring a response that would truly obliterate Iran; it's the old Mutual-Assured-Destruction checkmate that we remember from the Cold War.

And this divide-and-conquer thing of playing Arab/Sunni off against Persian/Shiite may seem clever to the corrupt elites (and violent wannabe-elites) on all sides in this, but the rest of us have bigger problems and better things to do.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
02:16 PM on 11/30/2010
Israel's invasion of Lebanon was carried out under an Israeli Nuclear umbrella. Ever since Israeli technician Mordechai Vanunu blew the whistle on Israel in 1986, it has been well understood that the Israelis have a large number of nuclear weapons.

Israel's defenders are denying Iran access to nuclear technology, but the Israelis have a minimum of 100 warheads in stockpile. Supporters of Israel need to be reminded of this whenever they complain about the possibility of a Muslim A-Bomb.
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messy
artist, writer, adventurer
04:46 PM on 11/30/2010
Prove it.
12:07 PM on 11/30/2010
There will never be peace until Israel gives up its nukes. That the real truth. You want Iran not to have nukes its easy. Israel should give theirs.
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messy
artist, writer, adventurer
01:32 PM on 11/30/2010
...assuming it has any.
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02:16 PM on 11/30/2010
Israel threatens Iran with multiple nuclear strikes.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7140282.ece
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
07:23 AM on 12/01/2010
several years ago, a former Prime Minister of the Knesset was caught on microphone saying that “Israel will not be the first country in the region to use nuclear weapons,” following it under his breath with “Nor will it be the second.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/29/magazine/29islam.html
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Json
Cynical dreamer, sarcastic idealist...
04:58 PM on 11/30/2010
Do you think that there will be peace because israeli nukes are the sole problem? Or do you think that if israel has no nuclear deterrent that it will be destroyed and the destruction of israel would bring peace to the region?
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Bergen2
11:44 AM on 11/30/2010
The US has too many irons in the fire to use a military option against Iran. It would be economic suicide. Given that Israel and many Arab states share the same concerns about Iran, they should ban together and take care of the Iran problem themselves. The US no longer has the capacity to be the world's police force, even if the will remains.
11:58 AM on 11/30/2010
Nobody is going to attack iran. It's a stick meant to negotiate a resolution.
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Bergen2
12:29 PM on 11/30/2010
Maybe you are right, but am not counting on it.
11:15 AM on 11/30/2010
The truth is most likely the opposite: There will never be peace untill all major players in the Middle East have like capabilities. That includes a nuclear arsenal.
11:58 AM on 11/30/2010
why stop at the middle east. let's give every country in the world a nuclear arsenal. And then herald the era of peace.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
Json
Cynical dreamer, sarcastic idealist...
05:00 PM on 11/30/2010
Put all the power in the hands of nation-states??
C'mon! There won't be true equality and peace until each of us has our own personal nuclear device...for peace.
10:47 AM on 11/30/2010
With American troops worn and tired after the Iraq war and still on the ground there, and troops committed to Afghanistan until 2014, to call for some kind of military option or action in Iran is folly. Iran is a much larger country than Iraq and we saw how difficult it was to keep logistics and troops functioning in the hot areas just in Iraq. We cannot effectively wage a ground war there. What we need is a change of leadership in Iran, and we know that democratic forces are ripe to take over and turn Iran into a secular state like Turkey. Then the nuclear question becomes much less problematic. After all Israel has nuclear weapons, and that is accepted because somehow we feel they are governed by a more sane and friendly government (although I'm sure that it's neighbors do not feel the same). Iran is not stupid, they know that the west may threaten to take action, but that in their present extended military condition, they cannot. They know we are bluffing with an empty hand. We can blame our weakened foreign might on our weak economy and crumbling infrastructure at home and until that is rebuilt, we are really over a barrel. Let the Europeans and other immediate neighbors deal with them for a change.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
10:47 AM on 11/30/2010
Read the whole article without noticing a single mention of Israel's nuclear weapons program. Does anyone reading this think that Israel would be attacking Lebanon and Gaza and building illegal sentiments if they didn't have nukes? And why is it all right for Israel to have them but not the Arabs?
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LIbislife
11:24 AM on 11/30/2010
what does attacking Lebanon and Gaza have to do with nukes. Israel can level both of them without nukes. unfortunately their hands are tied due to public opinion.
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
11:34 AM on 11/30/2010
Because if Israel had taken such actions without a nuclear umbrella, someone would have surely attacked them.
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Freenation
01:05 PM on 11/30/2010
Unfortunately? so you consider inability to level two highly populated civilian areas unfortunate; thanks now I see where you are coming from...
01:54 PM on 11/30/2010
What are *illegal sentiments*?
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MrBadExample
Friends call me ‘exampleicious’
02:13 PM on 11/30/2010
All Israeli settlements on land annexed after the 1967 war are illegal under International law. There was a ruling against Israel in the International Court of Justice in July 2004.
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Freenation
02:25 PM on 11/30/2010
What is not illegal about the stolen lands? guess hasbara parrots need to get a taste of their own medicine...
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10:12 AM on 11/30/2010
I am moving to the place that will have the least amount of radiation exposure. Where is that, please.
11:56 AM on 11/30/2010
south pole. have fun.
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SamSeven
You're either with Humanity or you're not.
04:04 PM on 11/30/2010
Or north pole then we face a 100 year nuclear winter after that.