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Gingrich Grandiosity and Supply-Side Economics

Posted: 01/30/2012 12:13 pm

A Washington Post headline proclaims, "Supply-siders find an ally in Gingrich."

Art Laffer endorsed Newt last month, but that is not news. What accounts for the plural in "supply-siders" is one of Gingrich's policy advisor (a libertarian lawyer) plus two more (an investor and a self-described economist) who are refugees from Herman Cain's campaign. The same article goes on to mention Columbia Business School Dean Glenn Hubbard, whom I would certainly count as a supply-side sympathizer. The article also counts former Congressman Vin Weber in Romney's camp, and Weber was a long-time ally of our mutual friend the late Jack Kemp.

Some supply-siders evidently find an ally in Romney, while others were more inclined to support Cain or Perry in the past and perhaps Gingrich or Santorum today. If it was simply about who can dream up the lowest tax rate, it's hard to beat Ron Paul's comment in a recent debate: "What's wrong with zero?" But zero won't get the bills paid, so cutting one tax to zero (such as the tax on dividends or capital gains) means increasing some other tax to fill the gap. We have to find credible ways of funding the government that will do the least possible damage to the economy. Repeatedly borrowing trillions more just to pay for unsustainable tax giveaways ("to put money in people's pockets") is not what supply-side economics was ever about.

Whenever Newt Gingrich has been asked to explain why he is supposedly more "conservative" than other Republican presidential candidates, Newt has repeatedly replied that he "helped Ronald Reagan and Jack Kemp develop supply-side economics." If that were true, I think I would know about it.

I was jointly responsible (with Jude Wanniski) for bringing the phrase "supply-side" economics into popular parlance in 1976. I helped write the tax chapter in Jack Kemp's book 1978 An American Renaissance. I spent nine years as chief economist with Wanniski's consulting firm Polyconomics. I worked with David Stockman and Larry Kudlow in the first Reagan transition team in 1981.

Kemp arranged for me to meet with Gingrich in 1982, because Jack was worried that Newt had been seduced by OMB Director Dave Stockman's arguments that the Reagan tax cuts must tax a back seat to deficit reduction. Stockman was arguing that deficits would absorb savings, crowd out investment and abort the recovery. That argument (and Alan Greenspan's advice) had already inspired some crippling policy mistakes, such as waiting until mid-1983 to phase-in the tax rate reductions, and keeping the top tax on labor income at 50 percent. Incentives for business investment were also curtailed in a 1982 law, which I believe Newt opposed. Unfortunately, Gingrich also opposed the Kemp-Kasten tax reform in 1986, but all was forgiven in 1990 when he tried to block the counterproductive "read my lips" tax hikes of the first President Bush.

If Gingrich had simply said that he (like many others) supported the original Kemp-Roth tax rate reduction plan and the watered-down version of 1981, that would have been accurate and appropriately unpretentious. To suggest instead that the underlying logic and evidence was "developed by" by Gingrich, rather than by numerous economists allied with Jack Kemp, is simply preposterous. The true story is ably retold in several books, most recently Econoclasts by historian Brian Domintrovic, and earlier in The Seven Fat Years by former Wall Street Journal editor Robert L. Bartley. One looks in vain for any mention of Newt Gingrich in any history of supply-side economics.

The phrase "supply-side" dates back to April 1976 -- two years before Gingrich came to Congress. With some effort, I then persuaded former Wall Street Journal editorial writer Jude Wanniski to embrace a label that Nixon economist Herb Stein coined at a conference I attended. Yet several of us had been talking and writing along similar lines since about 1971, including Art Laffer, Nobel Laureate Bob Mundell and former Treasury Underscretary Norm Ture. As conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin rightly put it,

Newt Gingrich... had nothing to do with the development of supply-side economics. ...It pre-dated his election to the House by several years. So he didn't help Ronald Reagan develop supply-side economics. He wasn't even on Ronald Reagan's radar at the time.

With more justification, Gingrich gives himself great credit for "cutting taxes, cutting spending and balancing the budget for four years" as Speaker of the House from 1994 to 1998. Many taxes went way up in 1993, of course, but Gingrich does deserve credit for persuading President Clinton to reduce the top capital gains tax to 20 percent from 28 percent in 1997. Revenues from capital gains soared to $89.1 billion in 1998 and $127.3 billion in 2000. But Newt can't have it both ways. If he takes credit for the revenue windfall from capital gains tax of 20 percent -- which contributed mightily to the balanced budget in those years -- then Gingrich cannot then turn around and promise a similar fiscal miracle from his proposed capital gains tax of zero.

What about spending? Nondefense spending was cut from 17 percent of GDP in 1993 to 16 percent in 1998, and Gingrich surely deserves credit for that. But defense spending fell from 4.4 percent of GDP to 3.1 percent in the same period, which had more impact on the deficit.

Newt Gingrich's alleged role in the development of supply-side economics sometimes looks like a deliberate distraction from deeper questions about why he claims to be more "conservative" than other candidates. For many years, Gingrich advocated federal legislation making health insurance compulsory, something Romney never did. Gingrich has enthusiastically supported federal subsidies for ethanol and other green energy boondoggles. And he dismissed a thoughtful plan from Paul Ryan (who Kemp greatly admired) to slow the growth of entitlements as "right wing social engineering."

For Newt Gingrich to toss out strikingly bold and obviously unworkable ideas about scrapping many taxes and slashing others is certainly not moderate. But being immoderate is not the same as being conservative. And voicing flippant disregard for budget problems of the magnitude we face is not the same as being any sort of economist, supply-side or otherwise.

Alan Reynolds is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and the author of Income and Wealth (Greenwood Press 2006).

 
 
 
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09:06 AM on 01/31/2012
Supply-side economics is a school of macroeconomic thought that argues that economic growth can be most effectively created by lowering barriers for people to produce (supply) goods and services, such as lowering income tax and capital gains tax rates, and by allowing greater flexibility by reducing regulation.

NOW HOW DOES IT WORK IF THE MIDDLE CLASS HAS NO MONEY TO BUY THOSE GOODS AND SERVICES?
08:39 AM on 01/31/2012
This guy is as bad as Gingrich. Anyone still saying "supply side " out loud is a thief.
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MassWG
11:46 PM on 01/30/2012
It might be worth making a distinction between supply-sid­e economics as public policy and as economic theory. As simple tax-cut policy, it will continue to fail because it does not take the global economy into account - capital investment is no longer predominantly domestic, so while it may be good for multinationals it is not good for U.S workers.

But as economic theory, I would love to hear Keynsians try to defend the logic of demand-side: savings bad, consumption good. Supply-side theory follows Say's law of supply creating demand... "products are always bought ultimately with products"... and insists that production trumps consumption. There cannot be a demand for non-existent products until they are first conceived, designed and produced by means of innovation and investment.

Warren Brookes wrote: "Since economic thought first became formalized over two centuries ago, there have been essentially two different views about wealth. One view, first defined by Adam Smith and JeanBaptiste Say, is that wealth is primarily metaphysical, the result of ideas, imagination, innovation, and individual creativity, and is therefore, relatively speaking, unlimited, susceptible to great growth and development. The other, espoused by Thomas Malthus and Karl Marx, contends that wealth is essentially and primarily physical, and therefore ultimately finite."

Supply-siders clearly believe the former.
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/a-walk-on-the-supply-side/
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Gilmoure
Systems Analyst
11:08 AM on 01/31/2012
Exactly! If manufacturers would just increase their output, things would turn around.
12:48 PM on 01/31/2012
It is my understanding that 'supply side economics' theorizes that allowing the rich to pay lower taxes and thus accumulate greater wealth will create more supply which will create jobs. Yet, in the real world, this theory fails miserablly, because guess what - the rich don't create manufacturing jobs in the US. Instead, they invest most of their money in stocks, bonds, land, commodities. And those who do invest in jobs, invest their money overseas. While US has lost almost 3 million manufacturing jobs, multinationals have created almost 3 million manufacturing jobs overseas. This is further complicated by the fact that there is simply not enough demand for products because the middle class has tapped out their earning and borrowing power. Under these circumstances, lower tax rates, particularly for capital, simply doesn't make sense.
So the answer is NOT lower taxes for the wealthy. The CORRECT answer is tax policy that favors manufacturing job creation here in US and penalizes job creation over seas. That means MUCH higher tax rates on capital and the rich with greater deductions for creating US manufacturing jobs.
08:09 PM on 01/30/2012
Glen Hubbard an Apopka, Florida boy! A brilliant economist and a nice guy... Allen Reynolds really toot your own horn much... Much ado about nothing... eye on the ball... No Obama for 2012 !!!
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Robert SF
07:43 PM on 01/30/2012
I can't believe anyone would want to make sure the record reflected that THEY invented supply-side economics, considering what a failure it's been as a public policy.

But it HAS NOT been a failure! Look around you. We have the fattest 1% in all the world.

Ah, ok, good point. By that measure, it has been a resounding success.
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becky bradshaw
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth
10:21 PM on 01/30/2012
Mr. Reynolds can boast that he was present during the onset of the period when income became dramatically more concentrated, shifting heavily toward the top earners between 1979 and 2007 (Reagan Presidency 1981-88) . The "1%" saw their incomes spike by 275%.

"We have now returned to Gilded Age levels of inequality." Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute.

"The year 2007 has a lot in common with another notable year: 1929 ("Great Depression"). Besides the similar spikes in glaring income inequality, both years marked the beginning of one of the worst economic downturns in United States history."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/26/income-inequality_n_1032632.html
04:02 PM on 01/30/2012
Supply side economics has been totally and completely invalidated. If we learned nothing from the failure of the Bush presidency and the economic collapse that begain in 2007, it is that cutting taxes on the rich does not trickle down. Taxes are currently lower than they have been since the collapse of the stock market in the late 1920s. The Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 did little to fuel the economy--GDP growth after such massive tax cuts was tepid, and eventually were erased by the Great Recession. The lesson is that giving tax cuts to fat cats does not spur business investment and does not necessarily lead to good paying jobs for Americans. Nothing prevents the wealthy fat cat businessman from taking his tax cut millions and expanding production in another country or parking his money in Derivatives or Hedge Funds. Tax cuts for the poor and middle class, however, do fuel consumption, which is the engine of our economy. Give a poor man a hundred bucks and he will buy a bike or clothes or food--fueling consumption. Give the middle class a few thousand dollars and they may buy a new car or a boat, fueling consumption. Give a rich billionaire a few more million and he is not going to spend it, and there is no guarantee that he will use it to produce jobs for Americans. Consumption drives our economy; not supply.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Smithn
Different strokes for different folks.
03:27 PM on 01/30/2012
Give credit to poor ol' Newt and a modicum of pity also
Newt is actually educating whole generations of youngins while refreshing the memories of seniors, like me. Newt's propensity to drive his campaign in reverse keeps him circling his own varying rings of hell while the rest of us live & learn--in the present--on the internet thru articles such as this.
03:20 PM on 01/30/2012
We predict that Gingrich will win the Florida primary and continue on to win the nomination and then the presidency. Why would Conservatives vote for the loser to a loser? Mitt Romney lost to John McCain!!! Conservatives know this and are amazed that Democratic Liberals again are trying to pick the Conservative Candidate but we know the score.
Democrats want Romney because they see not just a victory with the class warfare because of his wealth but they see a victory that cements ObamaCare. It will not work!!! Hispanic Catholics are moving to back Gingrich. Conservatives are moving to back Gingrich. The Tea Party is backing Gingrich and the NBRA is backing Gingrich!!!!

Liberals will not win this one!!!!
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senorlou
Why would anyone vote GOP?
11:05 PM on 01/30/2012
LOL.  Thanks.  I love sarcasm.
08:44 AM on 01/31/2012
Spanish Catholics are moving to Gingrich? BS. Not even Catholics like Sunday Catholics like Gingrich, Scalia, Alioto, Thomas, Santorum - Catholicism is not a single issue religion as those anti-american losers try to make it .
01:02 PM on 01/31/2012
Catholic hospitals, orphanages and support service were told last year that they have one year to accept the ObamaCare provision to provide abortion or be forced out of business due to non-compliance. That year is up and now the Catholic Church sees the deal with devil they have made with the Democrats. Good Catholics will follow the guidance given nationwide last Sunday.
02:51 PM on 01/30/2012
Could Mr. Reynolds tell us what the optimal tax rate might be. According the the Laffer curve there is an optimal tax rate that results in the highest possible tax revenue. Its been 30 years. Has anyone at the Cato Institute figured out the optimal rate? Or is it just lower taxes on the rich?
06:05 PM on 01/30/2012
No one, anywhere, has been able to quantify the Laffer Curve, which is understandable because it describes an ideology not a reality.
02:45 PM on 01/30/2012
Given that "supply side economics" has no basis in reality, no one should care what you think.
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senorlou
Why would anyone vote GOP?
02:21 PM on 01/30/2012
Think about it.  We actually did try Supply Side Economics, especially during the W. Bush years (2001-January 2009).  It nearly collapsed our economy.  We cut taxes (Bush tax cuts).  We cut capital gains taxes from 20% to 15%.  We deregulated.  What happened?  The entire world's economy came to the brink of destruction.  Supply side economics isn't just a bad idea, it's catastrophic when put into practice.  How anyone could possibly believe in it now, after what we've just been through the past decade, show major ignorance and stubbornness on the part of the believer.
04:05 PM on 01/30/2012
Fanned! I can't imagine how these old supply-siders even have the audacity to show their faces these days after what they did to the economy. They should be ashamed.
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senorlou
Why would anyone vote GOP?
06:29 PM on 01/30/2012
I agree with you.  I think they should at the very least admit their horrible mistake.  What a waste it has been, and to think of what we could have had - how much wealthier a nation we could be, and how much higher a standard of living the average American could have if this horrible economic model had never been dreamed up by these supposedly brilliant economists.
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senorlou
Why would anyone vote GOP?
02:03 PM on 01/30/2012
Being an engineer of supply side economics is nothing to be proud of.  Supply side economics has been a disaster for the masses, and has brought our national debt to unspeakable levels.  One has to marvel that those who invented this mess, like Mr. Reynolds, are educated in economics.  We've tried out this theory of economics and found it to be a total flop, naturally.
02:02 PM on 01/30/2012
What happened to impartial writing. This is about as biased an article as I have read.
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03:02 PM on 01/30/2012
??? He seemed to be a person who WAS THERE to know that Gingrich is a freakin LIAR.

Remember, he is writing an opinion, NOT a non-biased news article. Learn the difference.
03:08 PM on 01/30/2012
Like other columns and blogs published here, the writer has a position, some would say a bias. This column does not pass itself off as news. Nor does anything on any newspaper's editorial page. There's nothing wrong about this opinion being presented here. Even though I disagree strongly with the writer's politics, I think his fact is correct. Newt is bloviating and self-aggrandizing once again. It's a wonder we made it through the 20th Century without him.
12:59 PM on 01/30/2012
Reagan's venture into Suppy Side Economics didn't get us to the Shining City on the Hill did it? It did ,however,show that you "can't have your cake and eat it too".
12:20 PM on 01/30/2012
You're an economist, and you STILL think that high taxes are the problem? Have you been asleep the last ten years?
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Gilmoure
Systems Analyst
11:11 AM on 01/31/2012
Businesses and the rich aren't spending because they're nervous about taxes not going down. If only taxes had been going down for the last 30 years, they've have been investing in America and things would be grate but all these high taxes, not to mention the increases of the last 3 years have totally spooked the money folk and so they're all sitting on their thumbs. On top of their money.
02:08 PM on 01/31/2012
Taxes have gone DOWN the last 30 years, and have not gone UP under Obama. And...during our most prosperous period ever, taxes were much higher than they are now. The banks aren't lending for one reason: they want to help elect a Republican who won't regulate them.