Changing the Reality in Gaza

Israel's ongoing and decisive military response to Hamas' continuing rocket attacks should have been anticipated by the organization's leadership. Yet it seems they have badly miscalculated the Israelis' sentiment and resolve. They have failed to realize that Israel cannot afford further erosion of its deterrence credibility especially in the wake of the summer 2006 war in Lebanon; that Israel views this conflict in its wider context of the future challenges from Iran and Hezbollah; and that future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will not be conducted under the gun. Counting on international pressure to bring a quick end to the Israeli onslaught may also prove to be misplaced as Israel is now determined to never allow a return to the status quo ante.

It is nothing less than tragic that innocent Palestinian civilians are caught up in the middle of this and inadvertently suffering injuries and death resulting from the irresponsible behavior of religiously fanatic cult leaders who have long since they lost their moral compass. More worrisome is the reaction of many Arab government representatives, especially the Palestinian Authority, who publicly condemn the Israeli military response without even alluding to Hamas' unilateral ending of the ceasefire, barrage of daily rockets aimed at Israeli communities and use of women and children as human shields. Privately the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, as many other Arab leaders, wish for the complete destruction of Hamas, yet never muster the courage to publicly hold Hamas responsible for putting their people in harms way while undermining the Palestinian Authority's efforts to negotiate an agreement with Israel based on a two-state solution.

It is understandable that the Arab leadership wants to end the Palestinian suffering in Gaza and needs to publicly appear sympathetic to that cause; hypocrisy however, will not stop future Palestinian suffering or end the bloodshed. The Palestinian people have suffered enough and the only way to end their misery is by insuring that Hamas emerges from this conflict as the ultimate loser. For as long as Hamas continues to openly advocate the destruction of Israel and other Arab states remain silent about it, the Palestinian people will be subjected, time and again, to the horror of war brought upon them by Hamas' reckless leaders and Arab acquiescence.

Mindful of this, Israel must remain committed to ending the occupation. But to hasten that date the current conflict must be concluded in a manner that is conducive to the resumption of peace negotiations in a calm atmosphere. Short of toppling Hamas -- which would be the ideal outcome, Israel must insist on the following measures before ending the hostilities aimed at Hamas' leadership, infrastructure and military establishment.

First, Israel must compel Hamas to end its rocket attacks either by destroying its stockpile of rockets or by forcing its leadership to accept the Israeli demand without any recourse. Israel must not end its incursion into Gaza unless this objective is fully realized. This is particularly important as it sends a clear message to Hezbollah and Iran that the 2006 summer war was an aberration and that challenging Israel again will force its enemies to meet the same fate.

Second, to arrive at a sustainable cessation of hostilities Israel should welcome the stationing of international force composed primarily from Arab sates such as Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia and aided by monitors from the United States and given the mandate to use any force deemed necessary to prevent any violation of the ceasefire. The force should remain in the territory at the behest of the UN and can be removed only by UNSC resolution.

Third, Egypt in cooperation with Israel and with the help of the EU must bring a total end to the smuggling of weapons and munitions to Gaza from the Sinai. This requirement is a sin qua non to accepting any future ceasefire. Otherwise, as long as Hamas continues to be supplied with weapons Iran's and Hezbollah's influence will persist and it will be only a matter of time before the next conflagration.

Fourth, under the above three conditions to ease the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza on a permanent basis, the Israeli-Gaza and the Egyptian-Gaza border crossings should be reopened provided they are manned by Israeli-Palestinian Authority and Egyptian-Palestinian Authority respectively. Neither Israel nor the Palestinians can accept any thing less than that as Hamas' authority in Gaza must be marginalized and having no say on border crossings provides a clear statement to that effect.

Fifth, to seek a breakthrough from the current breakdown, Israel and the Palestinian Authority must recommit themselves to an immediate resumption of the peace negotiations to bring an end to the occupation. In this regard, the Obama administration can play a significant role by leaning on the leading Arab states to bring all the necessary pressure to bear on Hamas to accept the Arab Peace Initiative and ask Israel to embrace it as well. This will also restore Palestinian unity between a Gaza and West Bank both under the control of the Palestinian Authority, which is critical to any effort to bring about sustainable Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Comments

[elscotto]

I wish I could get an understanding of something that predicated the history of the decades long tragedy between Israelis and Palestinians as my knowledge of the history is rather limited. In 1948 when the U.N. created Israel I've read that many Palestinians were driven from their homes that had been in their families for generations with no compensation of any kind. Imagine coming home from work one day and finding another family in your house pointing weapons at you and telling you to get lost. Obviously you'd feel outraged and betrayed by whatever forces had led to your situation. Until I get some understanding of that matter I can't quite believe that we as Americans really ought to be involved in that conflict in any way. How does it serve our national interests at all?

[Jezreel]

Part 2

"Privately the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, as many other Arab leaders, wish for the complete destruction of Hamas..."

Jordan, the only other Arab country after Egypt that has a formal peace treaty with Israel, indicated it is reconsidering its ties with Israel, amid rising domestic demands to revoke the 1994 peace treaty.

Qatar is a tiny gas-rich Arab Gulf emirate that hosts the U.S. military's Central Command, which has commercial and public contacts with Israel.

The emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, blasted the Israeli air and ground assault as a "war crime," and rejected any resolution that calls for a "mutual ceasefire" because this "equates the criminal with the victim, and justifies the aggression and blockade."

The emir's strong statement indicates that Israel has lost a cordial contact in the Arab Gulf region and that Hamas – which has always had ties with Qatar – has found a closer political ally in this conflict.

Lebanon, another member of the Arab League is firmly behind the Palestinian people and Hamas.

Iraq, of particular significance to USA, has witnessed some of the angriest and largest anti-Israel protests since Israel began its indiscriminate killing of Palestinian civilians.

President Obama will not stand idly by and allow the situation in Iraq to completely dissolve because of an inability to end Israel's military aggression against innocent civilians in Gaza.

[Jezreel]

"They have failed to realize that Israel cannot afford further EROSION OF ITS DETERRENCE CREDIBILITY especially in the wake of the summer 2006 war in Lebanon..."

Hamas and the remaining 1.5 million Palestinian civilians who have been terrorized, tortured, imprisoned, dehumanized and murdered have failed (refused) to sit by passively and end their struggle for the right to dignity, self-determination and equal treatment under the law in their own country.

"Privately the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, as many other Arab leaders, wish for the complete destruction of Hamas, yet never muster the courage to publicly hold Hamas responsible for putting their people in harms way while undermining the Palestinian Authority's efforts to negotiate an agreement with Israel based on a two-state solution."

Two Arab leaders with enough political influence to negatively impact Hamas' political future; Egypt and Saudi Arabia. But their influence is dominated by The Turkish government, Israel's main "strategic ally" in the region and mediator in the indirect Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that he took the attack on Gaza personally and he is now assuming a leading role in trying to secure a halt to the fighting. Moreover, he has publicly accused Israel of being responsible for the collapse of the Egyptian-mediated truce after its expiry because it did not fulfill its obligation in lifting the blockade on Gaza.

Part 1

[EnricoSuarve]

"...publicly condemn the Israeli military response without even alluding to Hamas' unilateral ending of the ceasefire..."

That might just be because Hamas didn't end it? - that would actually be the Israeli's cross-border military incursion into Gaza killing 7 Hamas soldiers on the 4th of November, a clear breach of the ceasefire and a monumentally stupid miscalculation on Israel's part

The world has seen the lengths Israel will go to over the capture of a single soldier - Did Israel honestly expect Hamas to just take 7 deaths during a ceasefire on the chin and act like good old sports?

Israel brought the renewed barrage of (actually amazingly ineffective) rockets down on their own heads by this act - possibly that was their intention, to get an excuse to continue to follow their unstated but obvious agenda of grinding down Palestinians till they cease to exist as a coherent group of people

Why is Hamas - a group labeled terrorist by Israel and others expected to exercise restraint when Israel breaks ceasefires, continues to blockade them and continues to illegally settle Palestinian land? Israel, a fully functioning state, extremely well funded by foreign aid never does

[Akin]

Rockets landed in Israel all through the "ceasefire".

That was why the tunnel was attacked. The tunnel destruction was contested, leading to the killing of the militants.

Then the number of rockets was INCREASED.

And how smart has that policy proved to be exactly?

[octo]

Imagine an alcoholic saying: "she should have known it was a bad idea to upset me. She knows I will respond with violence. Its her fault."

Would you buy his story? I wouldn't, and I don't buy yours either.

[Chilly TX1]

Alon, that was a freaking awesome write up. Wow.

[cayuse]

Simpler and just as easy to accomplish.

Let Israel cut and devide Palistine into any shape or way then want. Then let the Palistinian's have the first choice of which piece they want. That is called fair.

But I do not think Israel knows fair. What was fair about Usuary Tax for the first 1000 years after Christ financing the Roman Ottoman, and William the Concourer Empires while the world was force live under and THEY live aside from the Concours.

Now they have their own little Empire and those living under once again is not them. After the world saved them their idea of fairness begs for understanding.

Maslow's Hierarchy of need describes what happens as a person needs to survive. Not taking into account even of the loved one dead and dieing and revenge. They don't hate for hate sake.

Isael needs to join the human race and find the SPIRIT of light they were chosen to carry the tourch for. As the world gave them sympathy, they need to sympathize with the Arabs.

[doriath22]

Sadly, the Palestinians, regardless of who may be claiming to represent them, will never agree to any solution in which Israel reserves unto itself the sole right to the use of, or threat of force. Therefore, Israel is faced with two alternatives; one, to negotiate an equable agreement with an armed Palestinian entity, or alternatively, the total expulsion/extermination of the Palestinian people. It is a pity that the secular socialists who founded the world Zionist movement no longer call the shots in Israel, instead of the religious nuts who have held the balance of power in every Knesset since the late 70's. They are every bit as unreasonable as any of the religious nuts on the Palestinian side, and will only lead Israel into the abyss.
" Religious fanaticism is the most dangerous form of insanity" Claudius I

[Akin]

These are not the same secularists of the French revolution & People's Committees?

Or Stalinism?

Cambodia?

Hate religion all you want, but use your head before talking!

[Paulo1]

The argument would hold some merit if it wasn't for the fact that both sides have been doing this for well over 20 years now. Israel with its overwhelming military strength, Palestinians with their willingness to keep fighting no matter what the odds of success or the futility of their crude gestures of defiance,

There is no solution in this invasion. There is only continuity. Israel is flexing its muscle and creating another generation of hatred. So Israel wins? Big deal, it is not like there is a chance it will loose. Except that Hamas is now being proven correct in the eyes of the Gazan Palastinian's: Israel is their mortal enemy.

[JacksonJones]

Maybe it will turn out that way, maybe not. But the fact is that for 8 years now, Israel has been the target of rockets by Hamas. What going to happen? It's going to get worse?

[LiteSleeper]

Please. Don't try to equate rockets that kill a handful of people with the deaths of thousands of people in Gaza over those same 8 years. It's a ridiculous argument.

[batguano]

" future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will not be conducted under the gun".

perfectly appropriate for the Palestinians to enter into "negotiations" under the Israeli gun & occupation?

"It is nothing less than tragic that innocent Palestinian civilians are caught up in the middle of this and inadvertently suffering injuries and death resulting from the irresponsible behavior of religiously fanatic cult leaders who have long since they lost their moral compass".

It is not "inadvertent" that Palestinian civilian men, women & children are slaughtered/maimed by Israeli Bombs, rockets, tank & artillery fire! It is Israel that has lost its "moral compass"!

“The Palestinian people have suffered enough and the only way to end their misery is by”…ending the racist Israeli occupation!

“to arrive at a sustainable cessation of hostilities Israel should welcome the stationing of international force”……only if it includes all the West Bank & all Gaza borders.

“bring all the necessary pressure to bear on Hamas to accept the Arab Peace Initiative and ask Israel to embrace it as well”…..right, “pressure Hamas” and “ask Israel”, typical.

Israel has rejected the Arab Peace Initiative also called the Saudi Initiative repeatedly. It calls for a return by Israel to the 67 borders and an independant Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza in exchange for full recognition of Israel by all Arab states. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=135051

Informative read by Uri Avnery http://www.progressive.org/mag/avnery010209.html

Live on your knees or die on your feet!

[JacksonJones]

Actually, the proposition is more along the lines of "stop trying to kill Israelis and destroy Israel, and continue to be miserable, or live in peace with Israel and get a sovereign state."

Its not a bad deal, really. The Kurds would love to have that deal.

[Vutan]

I love that you don't consider the growing militarization of Israeli society a problem for Israeli democracy. Which is kind of strange considering that, by your own words, you are an Obama supporter.
And it is also fun that you don't consider the power the religious right in Israel has over the Israeli government a problem for their democracy.
For the record, they never moved out of Gaza. They're actually stationing on their porch, controlling that nothing, including food and medicine, gets in if they don't want to. And why they're there? Because they're bad? No. Because every Labourist government wants to keep the right, and most importantly the religious right, on their side, and every rightwing government,...well they just do what every rightwing government all over the world do...
And, yes, the blockade was ordered because there were some rockets flying, and blah, blah, blah...No, it wasn't...the blockade was ordered for the reasons I state above. But that's not the problem. Even if it wasn't true, it wouldn't change the fact that after 60 years of retaliation, maybe the historical message to grasp is that retaliation doesn't work. Politcis does. Negotiation does. Negotiating with people who might not want to negotiate with you, does. Making politically convenient for the people who don't want to negotiate with you, to change their tune. Bombs don't bring that. I thought that a fellow Obama supporter knew that. But, hey, he can always learn.

[GoneAreRepugs22]

"The Kurds would love to have that deal."

What do you mean by that?

I ask because a Kurdish terrorist group has been responsible for the deaths of more than 40,000+ people in the multiethnic Turkish Republic but the Turkish Republic has never responded by cluster bombing, invading, and occupying the major cities in northern iraq including mosul, kirkuk, and erbil, even though it would probably be the most effective way to eliminate that terrorist group and would be justified (moreso than israel). Not to mention that the Turkish Republic has had ethnic kurdish presidents and prime ministers (a palestinian would never attain that kind of position in israel), and two large muslim minorities (Circassians and Laz) who don't resort to terrorism for a quick buck from a foreign lobby, giving the kurds no excuse.

Oh yeah, and the palestinians actually had a democratic election whereas the kurds are run by feudalist kurd families who have held control over their lives for centuries.

Before you get snarky, I could care less about this conflict. It just seems that you're suggesting that the kurds have it worse than the palestinians, when in REALITY, it's the other way around. Don't try to suggest otherwise.

[JacksonJones]

That is just not so. Israel responded to the Saudi Initiative by inviting the Saudis or the Arab League in for talks, calling it a good starting point for talks. They wouldn't talk about it with Israel, and have left it as a "take it or leave it offer" but the resolution of the conflict is too complicated for a take or leave it approach.

Moreover, the Saudi Initiative was not very different than the Camp David/Taba ideas that the Palestinians and Israelis were so close on. In fact, King Abdullah scolded Arafat for not taking the deal, calling it a crime!

Most importantly, however, is the fact that Hamas isn't on board with it!

So, just laying the blame at the feet of Israel just doesn't cut it.

[wadenelson1]

Neither side will admit one bit of fault; Hamas for firing rockets, Israel for turning Gaza into a Warsaw ghetto situation that can only breed the ignorance, poverty, and despair that LEADS to terrorism.

Until EITHER side will admit THEIR portion of the blame, there will be no resolution no matter HOW much firepower brings to bear on Gaza.

Both sides seem committed to creating hell on earth, and making Gaza the enternal graveyard of Middle Eastern peace.

[unsinkmolly]

PART #4 FROM UNSINKMOLLY:

On FDL commenter claims that of 1.5 million population in Gaza, 44.5% are under 14. In fact, the average age is 17. The commenter said if Israel bought them X-boxes to keep them busy, maybe they wouldnt join up with Hamas.
*
Shock and awe radicalizes populations.
*
Israel has set it through their timing and actions that Barack now has no hope for negotiating an evenhanded peace, tragically.

END

[JacksonJones]

When do you talk down to the Palestinians to tell them they've "radicalized" the Israelis with their rockets and bombs and that now he they have little chance to reach an evenhanded settlement?

[unsinkmolly]

PART #3 FROM UNSINKMOLLY:

Between June 19 and November 4 Gaza honored the cease fire. Israel ended it Nov. 4th with an airstrike killing 5 people and then launching their siege, probably using the distraction of the US elections with a corporate media Israel-biased, anyway. It resulted in escalated retaliation from Hamas which is now being used as justification for the massacre.
*
This was a premeditated humanitarian disaster being touted as self defense by American and Israeli leadership. Yeah, pre-emptive self defense. More of the Bush doctrine presumably. The Hamas political party was democratically elected, as Helen Thomas pointed out in a US press conference recently.
*
I am not defending Hamas by a long shot, but once again, the US wants pseudo-democracy overseas. Elect your government but contingent to US approval? So blatant and so ugly and hubristic.
*
Arab nations are reluctant to speak out for the Palestinians because they are dependent on U.S. aid.
*
Crazymaking situation. Israel says it warned civilians to flee. To where? They cannot escape across the border. They have no food, no water, no fuel, few medical supplies. Surgeries are performed without anesthetics.
*
In Sept. 2006 70 US senators voted for, 30 against, the right of Israel to use cluster bombs in such places as Gaza. Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Schumer, McCain, Lieberman-yes. The high profile guys. Wow. Dropping those into densely populated ghettoized population, causing deaths, loss of limbs, grotesque suffering … cluster bombs ... keep on giving decades later.

[JacksonJones]

"Between June 19 and November 4 Gaza honored the cease fire"

Unless you count the rockets and mortars fired into Israel. During the ceasfire, there was not one month in which Israel was not the target of Palestinian rocket and mortar fire. If you don't count that, then I suppose you could say that they "honored the ceasefire", though I am not sure what that would mean.

[EnricoSuarve]

During those months the rate of fire from rockets and mortars dropped from several hundred to an average of 6.25

The actual combined figure are

Jan: 337
Feb: 485
Mar: 299
Apr: 518
May: 355
Jun: 280
Jul: 9
Aug: 11
Sep: 3
Oct: 2

Personally I think that categorically shows Hamas' resolve to honor the ceasefire, in any such draw down there will always be individual hotheads who do not honor it, as was the case with multiple IRA ceasefires. This is the point you start to negotiate and reduce it further with cooperation on both sides

Its not the point that as a ceasefire signatory mount an armed strike into enemy territory killing 7 enemy soldiers - yes they were digging a tunnel but the responsible way to address that at such a delicate time is to say "we can see the tunnel - stop it"

Instead Israel chose to break the ceasefire, acted all surprised when the rockets started again, then targeted government buildings, police stations and schools; again expressing amazement, this time that such buildings were in built up areas

Any such future ceasefire whilst extremely unlikely is now also going to be harder to police due to the aforementioned removal of police stations and government buildings

[unsinkmolly]

PART #1 FROM UNSINKMOLLY

THIS IS A COMMENT IN SEVERAL PARTS I POSTED ON THE GUARDIAN THIS WEEK:

Here are some thoughts and discoveries I have made. If anyone wants to explore or refute, please do.
*
On NYC local news earlier tonight, a few seconds of flash images of Gaza horror. Then a long story about Sderot family and their psychological torture (the Israeli's). It was very moving and I feel for people living under that kind of chronic fear. Then some reporting of Israel military strategy. Later in the program Mayor Bloomberg was shown in Israel and told the camera that Israel is our special friend and deserves our support in their self defense or something like that.
*
Then on was it Rachel Maddow's radio show someone was asked if Israel feared any political blowback at all from the US. The interviewee said something like, No, they are totally secure in US support. They are more nervous about other Middle Eastern countries. NO BLOWBACK FROM THE US. I make phone calls to Congress. Then I watch tv news, hear the Israeli propaganda, feel once again so disenfranchised from my own country.
*
Glenn Greenwald at Salon is so eloquent and consciousness raising about this situation. He speaks of the difference between a civilized people and terrorists. Terrorists exhibit a sociopathic indifference to the deaths of innocents, like 9/11, suicide bombers, etc. From what I am witnessing, that seems to be applicable to Israel and my own government

[Petunia39]

I read that most Republican support Israel in this conflict, but fewer and fewer people are registering republicans after the Bush years. I also read that only 31% of Democrats are behind Israel. We owe much to this to Bush, as he backs Israel people begin to see connections between what Israel does and what we did in Iraq, and to distrust the MSM. It may be only a matter of time before Israel loses the PR campaign even in the U.S. Several years ago, in a survey covering a variety of different countries, the U.S., Israel, and Iran, were seen as the most dangerous to world peace. With alternative news outlets, it may be waging a losing battle.

[JacksonJones]

I'm a dyed in the woll Democrat with a big fat D, voted for Gore, Kerry and Obama, gave money and volunteered for Obama becuase Bush's wars and trashing of the Contitution made me sick, and I can easily that Israel's issues with Palestinians are *nothing like* Bush's problems with Iraq. The main one being that Iraq was not targeting US civilians, Hamas is targeting Israeli civilians.

Hamas is not proposing to live in peace with Israel, to the contrary, it remains ideolgically opposed to the existence of Israel, and is committed to attacking Israel as best it can.

Don't take my word on it. Read Nazir Rayan's interview with David Gergen, the Hamas Charter and recent statements of Hamas' leadership to find out the truth.

[gageeandbaba]

it's funny, how many UN resolutions has Israel defied? History doesn't begin with Hamas firing rockets into Israel. Whose fault is it really that Hamas is the political organization it is today? Who pushed for elections before there was any stability? Who blocked off aid, food, electricity, as well as kept building illegal settlements,..o and who has illegal nuclear weapons but won't admit it? That's all ok I forgot.

[JacksonJones]

gegeenandbaba, how many binding resolutions has Israel defied? Which ones? Are the Arabs in compliance with them?

Did Hamas rocket fire on Israeli civilians (a) precede and result in the closure of Gaza, or (b) come only after, and as a reaction to the closure of Gaza?

(Answer: a)

How many people does a settlement kill?

(Answer: none)

Can it be removed when a final agreement is reached (as in the case of Yamit in Sinai) or even before as in the case of Gaza?

(Answer: yes)

Who maintain an ideological committment to the destruction of its neighbor to the exclusion of a peace agreement?

(Answer: Hamas)