Netanyahu's Second Chance

The new Israeli government led by Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has raised many conflicting feelings among those concerned about the fate of the Arab-Israeli peace process. Will Netanyahu scuttle the little progress that was made under his predecessor Olmert, or will he engage the Palestinians anew? Questions about whether he will resume negotiations with Syria, how he will tackles Iran's nuclear threat, and if he will get along with President Obama remain unanswered. Yet given the right political environment created by the Obama administration and supported by the leading Arab states and the Palestinians, Netanyahu has the potential to advance the peace negotiations significantly, and may end up surprising everyone in the process.

On the positive side, those who know him well suggest that Netanyahu has matured considerably since he was first prime minister (1996-1999). He is well aware that he may never be given another opportunity as prime minister and that he now stands before an historic crossroad. Netanyahu understands the requirements for peace from being at the negotiating table many times before. He appreciates the Israeli public sentiments and is certainly not oblivious to what the Obama administration expects from any Israeli prime minister at this juncture in a region laden with multiple crises. Moreover, the eyes of the international community are fixed on him and he is only too aware of the burden he has just assumed and the limited time he has to demonstrate sound policies. Netanyahu has said he wants peace with security for his country. He argues for strengthening the Palestinian economy and engaging in the peace process, while not excluding making progress on the Syrian front. Iran still poses the largest security threat to Israel, and Netanyahu insists that it must be neutralized.

There is nothing from his tough campaign rhetoric that precludes the establishment of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace. While the appointment of the right-wing Avigdor Lieberman as foreign minister may have signaled to many a shift away from any peacemaking efforts, it is likely that Netanyahu will use Lieberman strategically for his tough rhetoric to satisfy the more hawkish Israeli constituency. When it comes down to the bargaining table though, once Netanyahu feels he has an honest shot at peace with security he will not let Lieberman get in his way. Persuading Labor to join his coalition government and Ehud Barak as his Defense Minister also shifts the balance of power toward moderation. His coalition may well signal that the future peace process will be anchored in tight security arrangements, and that he and Barak can offer the toughness and leverage needed to secure such a peace. Netanyahu and Barak are capable of negotiating simultaneously with both Syria and the Palestinians. Though the peace negotiations with the Palestinians will be painstaking and take much longer to conclude, a steady progress can still be made aggressively while pursuing the Syrian track.

Alternatively, left to his own ideological convictions and without American pressure, Netanyahu can easily retreat back to his old ways. Palestinian disunity and internal struggle within the Arab states will make finding a partner for peace extremely difficult. He will likely expand the settlements, respond harshly to Hamas' violent provocations, and focus exclusively on Iranian threats while relegating the Israeli-Palestinian peace process to the back burner. He might even ignore Syria's overtures for peace, especially because Damascus is not in a position to regain the Golan by force. It is possible Netanyahu will only attempt to pay lip service to the Obama's political agenda in the Middle East, and will cooperate only on matters of national security.

These are the two sides to Netanyahu, though they are not necessarily contradictory. He can lean either direction depending on the level, intensity and consistency of the American involvement not only in trying to mediate an Israeli-Palestinian peace but engaging all other regional players in conflict resolution. To enlist Netanyahu as a partner for peace, President Obama must be specific and clear about what must and can be done to advance the peace process while addressing Israel's main national security concerns, starting with Iran.

The Obama administration needs to heavily cooperate with Israel over Iran's nuclear program, and must demonstrate greater sensitivity to Israel's concerns over this existential threat. Whereas a diplomatic course with Tehran must be fully explored by the US, it must commence immediately so that any possible resolution to the nuclear impasse can be found within 2009, a timeframe that is considered safe before Israel contemplates taking matters into its own hands.

While President Obama must support Netanyahu's plan to build a strong economic base for the Palestinians, he must at the same time insist that a political progress is also being made especially in the West Bank. In that connection, George Mitchell and the Obama administration must be clear with Netanyahu that all illegal outposts are dismantled and a temporary freeze on all settlement activity is enforced. These actions have almost no security implications for Israel, but they create conditions that must exist for the Palestinians and Arab states to take the negotiations seriously.

As Mr. Obama recently embraced the Arab Peace Initiative when he met with the Saudi King Abdullah in London, he must now lean heavily on the leading Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria as well (now that Washington and Damascus are talking) to exert whatever pressure necessary on Hamas to moderate and join the political process. They must resolve now to rein in Hamas and establish a Palestinian unity government with the Palestinian Authority that can speak in one voice. Moreover, the Obama administration must take every measure necessary to prevent future smuggling of weapons to Gaza. Otherwise, as long as Hamas has weapons and continues to violently resist Israel's existence, it will provide Netanyahu with a valid excuse to freeze the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

President Obama must also openly call on Netanyahu to put the Israeli-Syrian negotiations on the fast track and be prepared to become directly involved in the process. By engaging Syria, the Obama administration can re-contextualize the peace process and give it the comprehensiveness that has been lacking. Peace between Israel and Syria is within reach and could have broad regional security implications serving both the United States' as well as Israel's national security interests. Moreover, without Israeli-Syrian rapprochement, the task of dealing with Iran will be simply insurmountable.

To be sure, Netanyahu knows that this is his second and likely final chance to advance the Arab-Israeli peace process, but he is not prepared to undermine Israel's legitimate national security concerns for the sake of claiming the peace. As long as President Obama discerns those genuine national security issues and addresses them effectively with Netanyahu, he may find the new Israeli Prime Minister a willing partner for sustainable peace.

Comments

[Solaris123]

Mr. Ben-Meir made an important point: "They must resolve now to rein in Hamas and establish a Palestinian unity government with the Palestinian Authority that can speak in one voice."

This is a vital condition allowing for this conflict.r­esolution. Otherwise it would be just more talk.

[chaos4700]

You mean like when Hamas and Fatah formed a unity government in March of 2007? And then were promptly cut off completely by Israel, the US and the EU until Fatah started accepting money and arms from the West to fuel a takeover?

Yeah, they tried that once. Israel destroyed the Palestinian unity government, with a little help from Bush and Blair. Apparently the "peace offensive" was too much for Israel to handle.

[Solaris123]

OK, you're right . Now go away.

[Solaris123]

Palestinains invited Arab occupiers into Palestine in 1948. Collaborated with Germany during WW2. Palestinains ravaged Lebanon. Took out Jordanian King. Tried to take over Jordan. Causes thousands of t.acts all over the world like Munich Olympics. Were summarily expelled from Arab Gulf states for collaboration with Hussein. Did spying and sabotage for Soviets.
Arafat broke every agreement he ever entered. Including those with Arab states.
Now Hamas is collaborating with another opponent of their most generous supporter Saudi Arabia.

Not an legacy which easily leads to peace.

[chaos4700]

Try that again when Israel isn't occupying land from three countries, opens itself to weapons inspection, signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, stops bulldozing homes, stops razing farms, stops illegal colonization of occupied land, removes the apartheid wall, gets rid of the t-shirts glorifying the murder of Palestinian mothers and babies, removes Lieberman from his Foreign Minister post, explains the USS Liberty, stops stealing what military tech we don't merely hand them, survives on their own without a multi-billion dollar care package from the US, stops fielding assassinations squads across the world, isn't in violation of over 60 UN (including the one that allows for its own existence), stops blockading food and medicine, stops threatening to start a war with Iran, stops conducting violations of sovereignty by bombing targets in other countries, stops funding lobbies that corrupt the American democratic process, stops producing Hollywood movies that portray all Palestinians as terrorists, avoids addressing any sort of criticism as "anti-Semitism," stops spying on the US, stops trying to falsify passports for Mossad agents, conforms to their internationally recognized borders, releases Palestinian parliamentarians from prison, stops using torture and indefinite "administrative" detention, stops bombing mosques and hospitals, stops attacking medical professions and UN personnel, and conforms completely to even one treaty it has ever signed, ever.

[Solaris123]

Wow you managed to cram almost entire Protocols of Elders in one post! Congrats, Mr. Gilles de la Tourette would be proud.

[Paulo1]

"Yet given the right political environment created by the Obama administration and supported by the leading Arab states and the Palestinians, Netanyahu has the potential to advance the peace negotiations significantly, and may end up surprising everyone in the process".

Given the winning lottery numbers, intervention by God, the cooperation of everyone in the world and the willingness of lions to lay down with assorted carnivores I too could get Netanyahu to make peace with the Palestinians. And it certainly would surprise everyone.

This article is just so much semi sophisticated propaganda. The jury returned a long time ago on Bibi and he is NOT a man even remotely capable of seeking peace. A nuke strike maybe, peace no.

[BubbaC33]

PM Netanyahu might surprise you.

[shotei]

They said the same thing about Menachem Begin, who established peace with Egypt and about Sharon, who led Israel in its withdrawal from Gaza. Don't underestimate Netanyahu.

[lightningbolt]

Of course, everyone is blaming Netanyahu just because he has a right wing government. Nobody is blaming the Arab leaders for continuing the conflict. Arab leaders are far more right wing than Netanyahu is, far more racist, and far more evil, and unelected. People should not be worried about Netanyahu, they should be more worried about the Arab dictators and monarchs who treat their people worse than the Israelis treat the Palestinians.

[WoodyTanaka]

Your ignorant sputtering notwithstanding, many people also blame the Arab leaders, for many things. Further, the Arabs would love nothing more than to resolve the conflict, having long ago resigned themselves to the presence of the Israeli state in their midst. However, Israel fails to return the land it stole from Syria, and refuses to live up to its international obligations regarding the refugees it created in the last 60 years, and continues its brutal and savage occupation of the portions of Palestine which it has not declared to be part of its state.

[shotei]

Wow, great debating skills here, "your ignorant sputtering notwithstanding". Arabs would love to resolve the conflict? If they do, why not start with stopping to finance and arm terrorist groups that only backtrack any peace agreements and recognize Israel's right to exist? I mean, I'm not talking about borders, just stating that Israel has the right to exist alongside a Palestinian state. I never saw such a declaration. "having long ago resigned themselves to the presence of the Israeli state in their midst", do you really think that is th attitude of someone who would "love nothing more that to resolve the conflict". Israel offered to return the Golan Heights two weeks after the Six Day War and Syria refused to engage in any sort of conversation with Israel, reaffirming its denial of Israel's right to exist. Why the hell would Israel withdraw after that answer from Syria?!
Israel withdrew from Gaza and has been under attack from terrorist ever since. How do you expect them to further withdraw from the West Bank when every single gesture of good will is responded with violence.
WoodyTanaka, your arguments are one dimensional and plane stupid. You have some reading to do.

[msfsi]

I am worried about arab dictators and monarch. If only the US and Europe would stop supporting them and hold them accountable for their dismal human rights records and the lack of civil liberties in their countries... that would be nice.

[Paulo1]

"Evil?"

Thy choice of words indicts you.

[BubbaC33]

Not really.

[Solaris123]

Instead of "evil" let's substitute despotic, oppressive and wantonly cruel to their subjects and indifferent of the welfare of their citizens. Good enough?

[alanposting]

Is not this the same guy and his wife that were found guilty in some criminality a few years ago....what is it about Israel always electing these crooks.....you would think it was the U.S.

[maureendowdisatotalbabe]

Even worse, you would think it was the District of Columbia.

[Solaris123]

Compared to the untold billions stolen and laundered by Palestinian leaders, Israeli leaders are saints.

[msfsi]

That very same corrupt leadership is still being coddled by israel and the west.

[SEQUOIABISON]

When we Americans elected Barack Obama we knew what we were getting, a man who opposed the Iraq war and vowed to withdraw our troops as soon as possible.

When the Israelis chose Benjamin Netanyahu as their leader they also knew exactly what they were getting, a man who hates the Palestinians, who embraces war, who thinks the settlements on occupied territory should continue and a man who prefers to attack Iran rather than sit down and talk with the Iranians.

Now we are told that Netanyahu will be like Nixon, an ultra conservative hawk who opened negotiations with Red China. We are told to ignore the bombastic rhetoric of the old Netanyahu and that he may surprise everyone by engaging in a peaceful dialogue with the Palestinians.

With all due respect to those touting Netanyahu as a potential advocate for peace, this is a bunch of malarkey, maybe if Israel actually selected an individual who embraced a fair and honest resolution between the Palestinians and the Israelis they might have some creditability.

But instead we are told that the warmonger the Israelis just elected, may surprise us and change his spots and embrace peace, would it not have been better to select a person who actually supported peace in the first place instead of selecting a person who supports war but may shock everyone and support peace?? Discombobulated logic.

[Macready]

totally agree with you Sequoiabison . . . .netanyahoo is no peace candidate . . . the only things that will bring israel even close to the negotiating table are tough economics sanctions and boycotts of israel products . . .my guess is they are preparing for Operation Cast Lead II . . .

[BubbaC33]

Here are a few things that might bring Israel to peace talks. Recognition of Israel's right to exist. Acceptance of Israel's need for strategic depth which requires the West Bank and the Golan. Hamas and Hezbollah to stop firing rockets into Israel. These are a few steps that will bring Israel to the peace talks.

[shotei]

You are right. Now all of Ghandi's pupils Haniyeh and Abbas (who wrote his master's thesis on how the Holocaust was a myth) will cry because they have no one to talk to.
Barak made the boldest peace offer to Palestinians in 2000 (Arafat said a few years later that he would take that offer if it was still there), offering most of East Jerusalem and the occupied territories. In return, Israel got an intifada.
5 years later, Israel withdraws from Gaza unilaterally, extinguishing all civil and military occupation of the strip, offering to progressively loosen the air and sea control in exchange for Hamas' recognition of Israel's right to exist. The response comes; thousands of rockets fired against Israeli territory.
What do you expect?! I don't like Netanyahu but it seems that only leaders from the right are strong enough to take these steps (Begin, Sharon).
Stop being biased.

[bigfro]

The palestinians don't stop terrorism , but Israel must stop settlements. Israel can not be the only one to take action.

[alanposting]

Only one thing wrong with your comparison.... ITS NOT THEIR LAND.

[shotei]

The land where the rockets fall is THEIR LAND. Both sides have to give. Israel has to freeze settlement activity and start thinking about some plan of evacuation or Palestinian citizenship for the settlers and Palestinians must recognize Israel's right to exist and renounce terrorism.
Stop thinking Israel is to be blamed for all the problems in the Middle East. This sort of view will never bring peace.

[Eclectic Radical]

This piece contains a fairly serious error or deliberate misrepresentation that I don't believe should be allowed to pass without comment. It represented Netanyahu as somehow being 'better' on the subject of piece than Avigdor Lieberman. While Lieberman is certainly a race-baiter (and very possibly a racist) and an ultra-nationalist, he is not opposed to peace. He is, in fact, in favor of two-state peace and advocates giving up Arab lands to a Palestinian state. He is also a secular Jew opposed to the religious groups with which Netanyahu is closely aligned.

I don't say this to somehow push Lieberman as an enlightened statesman. He is not. He is a (probably) racist and a dangerous ultra-nationalist. I say it as an indictment of Netanyahu. Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to a state peace settlement. He advocates improving the Palestinian economy and continuing their 'autonomy' within Israel. While many of the criticisms of Israeli 'apartheid' are erroneous, Netanyahu and the rump of the Likud represent the faction that truly advocate an 'apartheid' Palestinian policy. It is ridiculous to assume Netanyahu is less 'racist' than Lieberman and his peace credentials are far weaker, which is saying something.

I understand the desire to talk down American fears of the Netanyahu government, but this article is either ignorant or deliberately misrepresentative about Netanyahu and his agenda.

[spandautoseattle]

Since I have been taught an as I hope at least modest level of civility, I regret that I cannot show a more positive response to this article than past reality (re Mr Netanyahu) allows. This is talking about the B.Netanyahu whose behavior in the mid 90's was not exactly helpful to the peace process and who played a substantial role in the very regrettable end of the very same process?
I do not need to be convinced of his possibly good intentions. It is imo Mr Netanyahu who needs some straight talk.

[Question Othority]

Whatever deal Bibi can negotiate with any of Israel's Arab/Muslim enemies, i would like to see for once, just ONCE, the Arabs make the first concession. Instead of "Israel removes setllements, Palestinians promise peace" and other such conditions that have been present in every Israeli effort to achieve peace WITH security, try it the other way 'round. how about "Palestinians promise ZERO violence for 5 years and Israel will stop setllements." The late Abba Eban said it so well, "The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportuniy." And Golda Meir had it exactly right, "We will have peace when the Arabs love their children more than they hate the Jews."

[coreyishere]

lmao, Arabs make the first concession? And just who do you think is occupying who here?

[lightningbolt]

The Israelis are taking back the land that was stolen from the Jews over thousands of years. That land originally belongs to the Jews because they have been living there for thousands of years before the Palestinians ever existed. The Muslim Caliphate conquered that land by force, so therefore the Palestinians, their descendants, cannot be considered the native inhabitants. The Jews are the native inhabitants of that land and they are taking back what was stolen from them. The Arabs must realize that they are the ones who initiated this conflict first through the caliphate, and then through Arab nations attacking Israel with no provocation in 1948 with the intention of committing genocide, which they proudly proclaimed to the entire world.

[msfsi]

Your are misquoting the late Eban. He did not refer to the Palestinians, but arab countries in 1973. This phrase has now been 'adjusted' as a catch phrase to refer to palestinians so that simpiltons can do away with logic, gloss over the complicated facts and not question othority.
As for Golda Meir, I think she had Israeli policy towards the palestinians exactlly right when she stated "How can we return the held territories? There is nobody to return them to. "

[phute]

Ah yes - the settlements. Sorry I mean the increasingly illegal sttlements built on stolen land.
Oh poor, poor Israel - always having make such heroic efforts to achieve peace with security.
You don't get it do you - your leaders can't deliver peace - because then Israel's raison d'etre would be negated.
As Moshe Dayan made clear - Israel must always give the impression of wanting peace - but always there must be obstacles that prolong the opposite.

[shotei]

When did he say that exactly?
Oh, and Israel has given peace, Egypt and Jordan. At the first gesture towards peace from Sadat, Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula and has maintained peace ever since. Same applies to Jordan.
What raison d'etre are you talking about? Israel exists to be the homeland for the Jewish people.

[unite4change]

Most Americans have to much information now. And judging from comments on other blogs, most Americans are not will to keep going along with Israel's agrenda. They are tired of war.

[BubbaC33]

Israel has never started a war.

[chaos4700]

The fact that Israel has been at war continuously since it first started driving Palestinians out of the homes? Total coincidence.

[ttj1776]

“A passionate attachment of one nation for another produces a variety of evils. Sympathy for the favorite nation, facilitating the illusion of an imaginary common interest in cases where no real common interest exists, and infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter without adequate inducement or justification.” ~George Washington, ~page 269 of The 5000 Year Leap.

“The nation which indulges toward another habitual hatred or habitual fondness is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interests." ~ George Washington

"Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none." ~ Thomas Jefferson

[unite4change]

ttj1776, I feel you.

[Guberman]

how does continued settlement expansion and/or the refusal to halt them improve Israeli security? is not the contuance of them counterproductive on the merits? the fact they are continuing...leaves only a strong impression that the goal, whatever it might be...is...­nefarious.­..at best.

Cheers

[jeanrenoir]

in the case of the settlements, as in so much else, Israel often seems as blithely and suicidally blind to consequences as Madoff himself. The relationship between hubris and nemesis is an absolute law of the human condition which Israel often seems to act in blind ignorance of, but ignorance is no excuse before the law.

[Coolcat101]

I would love to ban the phrase "Obama must do..." for a few months. It's tiring to read so many backseat presidents input. I'm looking forward to a crowded field in the '12 elections season.

[Helzapoppin]

Really! I mean, who do these people think they are, trying to take an active part in their own Democratic government? The gall!

[nettyspagetti]

I think Coolcat means the head of foreign govt's saying "Obama must do

[JoeSchmuk]

Don't hold your breath.
'Neta nyahu said yesterday he will continue building in the Je wish enclaves in the We st Ba nk and Ga za St rip.' September 27, 1997

Will he change his position on this, which is a crucial part of the negotiation? I think not.

Will he actively support a two st ate solution without also maintaining I sra el's long standing undermining of Pal est in ian rights with 'evasive pretexts?' Don't think so!

Will he recognize and deal with the duly elected government of the Pa les tin ian people, i.e. Ha mas? Netanbloodylikely!

More likely, he is yet another stop gap in the long standing Isr ae li agenda to acquire its biblical rights to 'the homeland.'

Do i seem biased? Don't mean to be. This is just how it looks to me as far as i can parse the situation. And by the way, it is this article, and your perspective, that appear biased to me. 'President Ob ama must support Net an yahu's plan....' Really? So nice of you to dictate to the leader of the 'free world.''

[Solaris123]

appropriate screen name.

[msfsi]

Netanbloodylikely!