This morning I went to a Mexican cigarette vendor to buy a newspaper with a big picture of Barack Obama on the front. He didn't know who Obama was, but said confidently, "I love Americans, but hate America." I've heard this line so many times over the past year I've been numbed by it. Staring at Obama's smiling face, I wonder: Can he really can help?
I've been traveling for The Washington Post and Newsweek for the past year, posting daily on how ordinary people, from insurgents to farmers to financiers view the U.S. from Lebanon to Pakistan to Venezuela. At the beginning of the project last year, I remember talking to a young Indian student from a radical Islamic movement in Kerala who said "America must die a painful death," before assuring me he loves Walt Whitman poetry, watches Oprah, and hopes to visit me in DC soon. Why wasn't I reassured?
Maybe it's because exploiting the distinction between government and people hasn't prevented his mentor, a local Muslim leader named Pala Koya, from recruiting many more young men into his ever-growing "grand anti-imperialist struggle." It hasn't stopped young Venezuelans, financed by Hugo Chavez, from demanding their country cut oil supplies to the U.S. And it hasn't prohibited Hezbollah in Lebanon from discrediting student opposition as U.S.-financed stooges (same thing from Iran to Zimbabwe). Perhaps more frighteningly still, it hasn't convinced young Turkish students to keep investing their education dollars and careers in the U.S. rather than turning to Europe or Australia for their future. All these young people say they want the same things: some money, some fun, and a future.
This might be where Barack Obama comes in. Like Bill Clinton before him, Obama is the "ordinary-American" turned political juggernaut. Still in his forties, like Bill, Barack isn't old-guard Washington. Both men came from humble backgrounds and dubbed themselves the embodiment of the American Dream, helping their aspirational political messages ring loud. Bill was the man from Hope; Barack the candidate of Hope.
Running as a Washington outsider offers not just domestic appeal, but international appeal as well. Americans are universally popular - friendly, outgoing, hopeful, and hard-working. In the Pew survey, Americans judge themselves more harshly than most foreign publics judge them. This is to say: Americans are still popular abroad, even though their government certainly is not.
The next president has an opportunity to leverage positive views of Americans to improve the image of America's government. And what better way to conflate the two than to bypass political dynasties and embody the "ordinary" American elevated to extraordinary heights?
Views of the government and the people do rub off on one another. For example, under George Bush II, who has a 3% approval rating in Turkey views of the U.S. people have declined from 31% approval in 2002 to 17% in 2006. Over the same period of time, views of Americans in Great Britain dropped from 83% to 69% according to the Pew Global Survey. When Bush won in 2004, people wondered: How'd it happen twice? Since then, dislike of Bush's government have rubbed off on the American electorate who supported it.
This hurts in the present, but offers hope for the future. Despite the declining numbers, Americans are still very popular and so are their cultural exports. When American pundits talk about Barack Obama's "rockstar status," they are tapping into part of his appeal that could sell as well abroad as it does at home among the middle and upper-middle class foreigners in love with Hollywood, MTV, and Facebook.
Obama's rise is the perfect Hollywood plot line, and as Obama says again and again, his "story could only happen in America." This is a great pitch for America's image abroad. Electing the young guy, the fresh face, the person with the rags to riches story, can make it much harder for people like Hugo Chavez or Robert Mugabe, small-time guys like Pala Koya, or just disenchanted youth, from separating Americans from America, loving one but hating the other. It will force them to shed black and whites, and deal in grays.
Before closing, it's important to note Obama's rise also carries risks to America's global image, especially when/if as President he starts abruptly implementing policies that deviate significantly from Bush's. His call for "change" makes many of political and military leaders I've spoken to anxious. For example, will he turn soft on North Korea and irk Seoul's new President? Will he leave Iraq too fast, unleashing turmoil on its neighbors? Will he turn too protectionist and humble in his foreign policy as a backlash to Bush, neglecting mounting threats and leaving a leadership vacuum around the world? Hillary Clinton and John McCain both boast significant foreign policy experience - having traveled extensively in a political capacity. They could both assume office and implement changes gradually, without rocking the American boat too much. I'll post on them later.
Now it's Obama's time in the headlines. He swept yesterday's primaries, winning many immigrant votes, and the world is just starting to get to know him. I told my cigarette vendor about him, pointing at his smiling face, and the vendor asked, "He's that actor, right?"
"No," I said, "Since he's on the front page, let's talk Obama for a bit."