At the dawn of the Cold War in 1947, noted diplomat George Kennan proposed in a famous Foreign Affairs magazine article that the U.S. adopt a policy of "containment" to thwart Soviet expansion. "Containment" became a new buzzword in the diplomacy lexicon, the goal being to thwart the ability of a country to act against another.
When the UN Security Council imposed its fourth round of sanctions against Iran's illegal nuclear program last week the punitive economic measures were intended to "contain" Iran's illicit nuclear weapons program.
Dismissing the latest round of international punishment, Iran's mercurial president declared the sanctions to be nothing more than "...used tissues which should be thrown into the trash." Hyper bravado or trash-talk?
Despite the denials multilateral sanctions are certainly more than a mere nuisance to Iran's leadership. The latest round of sanctions impose on Iran an arms embargo, blacklist Iran's international shipping companies, authorize inspections of cargo ships bound for Iran, prohibit foreign investment in Iran's bonds, and blacklist companies and persons connected to Iran's Revolutionary Guards. Add other sanctions about to be imposed by the U.S. and its allies, and the noose should be tightening against Iran... or so sanctions proponents would have us believe.
Well then, why not chalk this up as an unprecedented diplomatic achievement for the good guys given the fact that Iran's two most important allies on the Security Council -- China and Russia -- abandoned the mullahs? Surely, as sanctions are increasingly fine tuned Iran will be more "contained" and find it far more economically painful to continue thumbing its nose at the world. So it would seem.
But Iran has been feverishly constructing its own containment policy to neutralize sanctions and straightjacket any military designs against its nuclear facilities.
As the clock ticks toward a showdown with Iran will it succeed -- or miscalculate -- that it can thwart an attack by Israel or the U.S. against its nuclear enrichment facilities?
First, in a global cat and mouse game, Iran has demonstrated uncanny resourcefulness and ingenuity to evade the worst of the sanctions against it. It has constructed a house of mirrors to hide its ownership of funds financing its imports and the companies breaking the sanctions.
Iran has been relatively successful maintaining its vital export markets with the very countries we need to turn the sanctions tourniquet tighter. By any measure, American-led efforts to economically isolate Iran have achieved important victories, but on balance, insufficient ones. In fact, Iran continues to export its goods relatively unhindered particularly to the very nations the U.S. is counting on to support sanctions; namely Japan, the EU and India. Moreover, the Sunni Arab states most concerned about Shiite Iran's nuclear and regional ambitions, namely Kuwait, Oman and the UAE, have not done nearly enough to end Iran's access to their exports. A few weeks ago, while in Oman I personally witnessed a flotilla of zodiac boats overflowing with camouflaged goods zipping across the Arabian Gulf to Iran from the port of Khosab.
Second, Iran has formed a new "northern alliance" which now includes, Syria, Hezbollah and Turkey. Turkey, once a strong NATO ally, is now firmly allied with Iran against the U.S. Turkey, which supported Iran in the UN, would certainly oppose military action against Iran and prevent its NATO air bases from being used against Iran. Iran may be calculating that by attacking Iran, both the U.S. and Israel risk losing Turkey as a NATO ally altogether.
Third, several weeks ago a "terror summit" was held in Damascus among the leadership of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran which have formed a de facto military alliance. Reports out of Syria after the summit indicate that Hezbollah is primed to provoke a preemptive crisis with Israel to open a "northern front" against Israel should Iran be convinced Israel is preparing to attack it. The pieces are in place: Iran has shipped to Syria SCUD and M-600 ground-to-ground missiles capable of reaching every major Israeli population center and talk of war is in the air. Media reports indicate that Hezbollah has now stashed away 40,000 missiles as compared to the 15,000 missiles it had in its arsenal at the beginning of the 2006 war with Israel.
Fourth, contradictory statements out of Washington have emboldened Iran to precede full speed ahead to quicken the pace of its nuclear enrichment program. And Iran has used every conceivable chance to publicly enumerate how it will retaliate against an attack, resulting in more and more hand-wringing in Washington over the cost of a military option. Public admonishments by Washington against the use of force by Israel against Iran, coupled with Iran's schadenfreude over America's troubled relations with Israel have also served to embolden Iran.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently wrote a three-page memorandum to NSC Advisor Jim Jones warning that the U.S. had no clear contingency policy in place should sanctions fail to deter Iran from reaching a "threshold" capacity to construct a nuclear weapon. And Adm. Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, has repeatedly thrown cold water over a possible U.S. military strike against Iran even though he has recently not ruled out U.S. missile strikes against Iran. Why would Iran blink if Washington is unable to convince even itself that the inevitable shortcoming of sanctions leaves the use of military force as the only option left on the table?
Also on the table is Iran's capacity to mischievously ratchet up its interference against American military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iran's rulers may suffer from a bad case of misbegotten uber confidence. But on balance Iran's counter-containment policy has achieved impressive results. How impressive? Obviously, time will tell. But by its words and deeds Iran's bravado has the telltale hallmark of nation increasingly convinced that rather being contained, it is the nation that is doing the containing.
The IAEA seems to be trying to downplay forgery issue, and is demanding that Iran respond to the "substance" of the claims made in the documents rather than acknowledge the questionable nature of the documents themselves:
[T]he IAEA has portrayed Iran as failing to respond adequately to the "substance" of the documents, asserting that it has focused only on their "style and format of presentation."
In fact, however, Iran submitted serious evidence that documents are fraudulent. IPS in an interview he had pointed out to a team of IAEA officials in a meeting on the documents in Tehran in spring 2008 that none of the supposedly top-secret military documents had any security markings of any kind, and that purported letters from Defense Ministry officials lacked Iranian government seals.
But as Porter points out, it was precisely the "style and format" of the forged "Uranium from Niger" documents that proved that they were fraudulent, so the IAEA is exercised a double standard by demanding that Iran respond to the "substance" of the allegations rather than the form and style of the documents.
http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2009/09/iaea-conceals-evidence-that-alleged-studies-documents-are-forgeries.html
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2817159467101904541#
The only CREATURES who say that the MULLAHS' REGIME is not a DICTATORSHIP, are the Mullahs themselves! That is quite obviouse, these CREATURES are claiming to be the SUBSTITUTE for their "god"! Just imagine, when these DIANASOURS are the SUSTITUTE or "REPRESENTATIVES" of that "god", what kind of CREATURE would be their "god"?!
OH GOD HAVE MERCY!
oh...i didn't knew haggee moonlights at HP too...
Hasbara member ?
Logical argument ?
And if the US wasn't so determined to let Israel do whatever it wanted, any nuclear program by a nation not bound by the terms of that document would be illegal.
P.S. Iran is not a "DICTATORSHIP" ,no matter how many times you say it .
P.S.S. "THE PERSIAN GULF needs PEACE not WAR!" it's actually the US that stated both current war's of choice in the Middle East.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-mystery-of-israels-secret-uranium-bomb-421960.html
Their President, Ahmadinejad, steadfastly maintains that the Holocaust is fiction! Is that not delusional? Heck, he's supposed to be one of the top-dogs in their govt. But, of course, he's really being controlled by the wizard behind the big red curtain - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a/k/a, "The Supreme Leader."
If or when these knuckleheads get nuclear weapons they'll strut around the middle east and beyond like a bully on a playground. If you can imagine how things might have been had the Third Reich acquired nuclear technology, then you'll probably have a fairly good image of how Supreme Leader and the boys will behave.
"If or when these knuckleheads get nuclear weapons they'll strut around the middle east and beyond like a bully on a playground." Just like Israel seens to be doing ?
"If you can imagine how things might have been had the Third Reich acquired nuclear technology, then you'll probably have a fairly good image of how Supreme Leader and the boys will behave." ,Are you trying your hand at humour ?
America is after Iran's oil, like it was after Iraq's Oil, like it is in the Philippines for the Uranium/Gold deposits.
Iraq has a tremendous amount of oil. If what you say is true then the U.S.'s problem of foreign oil dependency is solved! Plus, shouldn't we now be able to join OPEC and exercise some control? But if what you say is true, then here's the best part; Now we can give ole' Hugo Chavez the finger because we don't need any more of his stinkin' oil!!
-----The method of enforcement currently is Central Command, known as Cent Com. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Central_Command
While oil alone is important, the drive by the U.S. is to not have the middle east as a trading partner but as a puppet state to which we can dictate policy. The Bush Doctrine comes to mind.
http://www.jweekly.com/article/full/19725/iraq-to-haifa-oil-pipeline-could-spur-economic-rebirth/
IRAQ OIL TO BE SHIPPED TO ISRAEL
http://wakeupfromyourslumber.com/node/2753
U.S. checking possibility of pumping oil from northern Iraq to Haifa, via Jordan
http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/u-s-checking-possibility-of-pumping-oil-from-northern-iraq-to-haifa-via-jordan-1.98134
How would we know the truth about the oil?
How did you know they were meant for Iran? Who told you this? Or did you check the shipping label :)
Lastly, what can you put in a zodiac? seriously! I can see drug smugglers use zodiacs to shop contrabands but to send industrial goods on zodiac? Give me a break! who do you take us for?
Now, I can see the dictators of the UAE, who have promised the US they will restrict trade using such to profit from breaking the regulations they've imposed at the behest of the US government, but seeing as Iran has seen the need for domestic sources for defense weaponry basically since the West cut them off from such while providing Saddam with all the offensive (in both senses of the word) weapons he could use, the idea that cutting off the ability of Iran to import such would result in a black market trade of them to Iran is funny.
It’s like the dominoes got together and pushed back.
One wonders how good a grip on reality someone like that has.
34. Previous reports by the Director General have detailed the outstanding issues related to possible
military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme and the actions required of Iran necessary to resolve
those issues.23 In the Director General’s last report, the Agency described a number of technical
matters it needed to address with Iran.24 Since August 2008, however, Iran has declined to discuss the
outstanding issues with the Agency or to provide any further information or access to locations and
people necessary to address the Agency’s concerns, asserting that the allegations relating to possible
military dimensions to its nuclear programme are baseless and that the information to which the
Agency is referring is based on forged documents.
http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2010/gov2010-28.pdf
Is it not incredibly outragious that both the U.S. can not stop it's saber rattling and Iran can not get over it's indignance. Both of these parties should be held accountable.
Peoples lives are just a game, to be granted, or snuffed out at a whim, for posturing.
Mr Ginsberg throwing terms around like "Iran's illegal nuclear program" and "Iran's illicit nuclear weapons program." is quite irresponsible.
Forged documents... shades of yellowcake. Where have we heard that one before. And when will that be addressed to the extent the law requires.
Once again
You will either build civilization. Or you will not.
"35. Based on an overall analysis undertaken by the Agency of all the information available to it,25 the Agency (IAEA) remains concerned about the possible existence in Iran of past or current undisclosed nuclear related activities, involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile. There are indications that certain of these activities may have continued beyond 2004."
Ginsberg
http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2009/10/elbaradei-interview-language-of-force.html
Anonymous IAEA officials have said:
"Some people do not want to see the Iran issue resolved because that would contradict their hidden agendas, ...people should have learned from their mistakes in the past, when all the hype over alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq turned out to be just that -- hype".
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1283850220080212
Even in-coming IAEA director Aman has conceeded that there's zero evidence of a nuclear weapons program in Iran. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL312024420090703
=============
Iran lacks weapons-grade nuclear material -U.S.
Tue Mar 10, 2009 8:14pm
WASHINGTON, March 10 (Reuters) - Iran lacks weapons-grade highly enriched uranium and has not yet made a decision on whether to produce any, U.S. intelligence officials told Congress on Tuesday...
Isreal is not a member of NATO, so can't lose Turkey as a NATO ally. Is there some other law or treaty which makes her a military ally of the US, or is she just an ally in the political sense?
In this day and age of unrest, America needs to be led by an EXPERIENCED president with military experience and strong authority...a president that can be respected.
Obama is just going around making back door deals, destroying his own country and becoming the laughingstock of the eastern world. And what about the strong allies in England and Israel? I've never seen them treated so badly.
Thankfully all three know there are only two years left and another, more experienced and knowledgeable president will begin reparations.