McCain/Palin - R.I.P. Courtesy of the Middle East

Having just gotten off the plane from the Middle East, one thing is for certain: whether you are pro-Israeli, pro-Palestinian or pro-whatever, there is hardly a soul who is not rooting for a big Obama victory on Tuesday (except for extremist settlers and extremist Islamists) .

The obsession with our election is genuine and genuinely welcome. Israelis anticipate an Obama administration that will be back in the business of untying the gordian knot that characterizes a peace process on life support (remember Bush promised at the Annapolis Summit to produce an Israeli-Palestinian agreement before his term ends...yep, just another broken pledge on the resume of Condi's Rice's shattered legacy that has left the region even deeper in a hole).

Palestinians (and dare I say most Israelis) are hopeful that even if the next Israeli election produces another Likud government under Netanyahu, that just the sheer velocity of Obama's positive policy changes in the Middle East will compel Netanyahu to succumb to the urgent need to put a two-state solution onto the express rails. Indeed, an Obama election has the capacity to positively impact, however indirectly, the outcome of both Israeli and Palestinian elections early next year. What wonderful tonic for a region where extremists on both sides will try to influence the election to their own worst devices.

Election parlor talk is rampant. Everyone is wrestling with that strange creature otherwise known as the electoral college (tortured media explanations are Daily Show material), and local political commentators are explaining American polls and following the candidates as if their own nations' futures depend on it (and for all intents and purposes, it just very well may).

Israeli journalists are appearing on Palestinian television debating the merits of the candidates. Palestinian television outlets are carrying first hand reports from battleground states, focusing on how Arab-Americans are supporting the Obama-Biden ticket. Israel and Palestine are no different than the rest of the Middle East where Arab media are outdoing themselves in covering the U.S. election (with a clear preference to paint the McCain-Palin ticket as "Bush 3" in vernacular Arabic.

For all the vaunted Bush-Cheney-Rice failed ideology of cramming democracy down the throats of Arab oligarchs and indifferent Arab citizenry, the election of a President Obama will be the single most important lesson in democracy development we could possibly hope to enshrine as the foremost example for the future of potential civil liberties and enlightened leadership in the Middle East. Obama's extended coattails will galvanize secular civil society leaders into believing that they can actually rely on an American president who will begin unraveling the hair-trigger policies that have placed the Middle East on the precipice of crisis and conflict for the past eight years.

As excited as I am about what an Obama election may mean for a more stable, secure and peaceful Middle East, I have no illusions that the dark forces of the region are less preoccupied with Sarah Palin's 5th Avenue wardrobe than imposing their own terms and conditions on the incoming Obama administration and doing everything possible to reshape the terrain to their advantage.

In Lebanon, there are disturbing signs that Hezbollah's leadership is itching for a repeat of its military confrontation with Israel by smuggling into southern Lebanon sophisticated Syrian-supplied ground-to-air missile batteries to shoot down Israeli reconnaissance flights. Additionally, in retaliation for America's recent attack against an Al Qaeda target inside Syria its leaders are urgently planning a counter-strike of some sort to serve as a warning to an incoming Obama administration that Syria will not tolerate a similar attack on its territory under the next American president.

And the slow, steady fuse of an Iranian nuclear program continues burning unabated. Sources I met with advised that Iran's leadership realizes that an Obama presidency compels them to generate the appearance of a modicum of global responsibility given their calculation that an international honeymoon for the new administration will be in order. I was informed by regional journalists who cover Iran, that its government is preparing a post-Bush policy proposal to the new president which would include, among other things, a tantalizing offer to suspend its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for a long list of concessions, including Israel's dismantling of its own nuclear program (think of North Korea, here).

Surely, the list of challenges and obstacles the a new American president faces in the Middle East are daunting, and too numerous to go through here: Iraq, Lebanon, Hamas, Al Qaeda, oil exports, Iran, etc. after chilling etc. But there is considerable room to change the dynamics of a region caught in neoconservative hell.

Israeli President Shimon Peres, whose Peres Center for Peace Center celebrated this past week its 10th anniversary of success in fostering Israeli-Palestinian cooperation in science, technology, business, and medicine, once ruefully noted on the subject of Arab Israeli peace that there can be no light at the end of the tunnel, because there is not even a tunnel.

Hopefully, that is about to change, and for those of us who have never given up hope on a better Middle East for Arab and Israeli with the election of a President Obama the sign on its new Middle East policy team's wall will surely read "DIG WE MUST!"

Comments

[xxnounxx]

dear ambassedor
i as an arab and half palestinian,will reasure you that the arabs dont give a da-m who wins the presidency
as long as washington is the slave of isreal..no­thing will change unfortnate­ly..look at the two candidates,both of them over and over again and again kept reasuring their baby isreal.
if obama had shown a side where is not in support of double standards,then he would not be the next president.
as i predict..t­he movers should start moving his private property to the white house from this moment.

[njhamdan]

......i have to respectually disagree with you. As a Palestinian American i care v. much who wins this race.

yes, it is true that there exists a huge bias towards Israel, but it has always been so, Obama HAS to be pro israel to be president, at least show that he is.

Obama I believe will start the process for a nation for Palestine, He has said that it will benicially towards Israel and Palestine. He said that he will takle this issue early on in his administration.

I may be naive, but i believe him. I WANT to believe him.

If this issue gets resolved, I believe the world would be a safer place. Islamic extremist hold up Palestine as an an example of the injustice that BIG BAD AMERICA AND ISRAEL have done.

If Palestine is a nation, there will be no ideological example for the extremist, and it would go a loooooonnnnng way towards improving USA's image globally.

If Obama is start, he will do whatever he can to deal with the Palestinians and Israelis.
I believe he is smart, I can only hope as to what he will do.

[guppyinthecesspooloflife]

Hey Ginsberg, have you seen the latest polls regarding the BBC's Mc'Cain vs Obama poll in Israel

74% pro Mc'Cain

Stop Ya Lying

Guppy

[lizboulder]

Dear Supporters of Obama, here and around the world: If barack obama wins the U.S. presidency, i would ask that those who voted for him, whether hesitantly or with full support, to FLY YOUR AMERICAN FLAGS ! this will be a day of enlightenment, a day of shedding our fears and prejudices, a day to move forward, a day of HOPE. so fly your american flag with the greatest of deserved pride. do it !

[SuperSam]

I'm curious ambassador as to where you receive your information. Haaretz reports Americans over there are voting for McCain 3-1 and the general atmosphere is strongly pro-McCain.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1032932.html

While you are hailing the Perez Center, Haaretz had strong condemnation for it: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1032834.html

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

U.S. dual nationals in Israel constitute less than 3% of the total population in Israel. Accordingly, they do not represent Israeli public opinion, which according to most polls, look forward to a return of a Democratic administration in Washington because they realize that Bush's policies have undermined Israel's regional security despite his stated friendship for Israel.

[mulegino]

Good point, especially about the Iranian "nuclear program" (even if there is no hard evidence that a weapons program exists). The Bush/McPalin doctrine of preventative war has essentially forced any self respecting nation able to do so to threaten to exercise some kind of deterrent (Iran's are its ballistic missile arsenal, influence in Iraq and the ability to close off the straits of Hormuz).
An Obama victory would almost certainly produce a wave of favorability for the U.S. abroad-something like post 9/11-and I believe that Obama and his advisers would be wise enough to capitalize on it.
An Obama administration's willingness to negotiate-rather than bluster and threaten, would have a deflationary effect on the bellicose rhetoric of hardline regimes everywhere­-including Iran's.
This should represent a window of opportunity, which cannot be passed up.

[aHamilton]

My Israeli friend who spent half her life here and half there just told me all of her constituents in Israel are fearing an obama victory. I wonder where you get your information from.

[zorongeeko]

Hes an ambassador

[pkafin]

I wonder where where your "friend" gets her "constituents" from. Most Israelis I have spoken to (admittedly a group too small to be a scientifically sampled representative group) would prefer to see an Obama administration.

Many Israelis see the Israel/US relationship under Presidents like Bush to be similar to having a parent that lets you eat candy for breakfast. No kid is going to turn that down, but, in the back of their minds they know it's not good for them and they'd prefer a diet that leaves them feeling better.

[njhamdan]

What a good analogy...­....I think that is what Israel and America both need...a "diet"

Good comment!

[booker52]

I believe it has to do with being willing to speak with people over there. Yeah, that would be a big one. GWB just didn't get, nor did he want to.

[lbcyclist]

Attempting progress on the Israeli-Palestinian track has been left by both Clinton and Bush to their lame duck period as an attempt to manufacture 'legacy'. Had they been truly engaged in this effort from day one throughout their time in office the results could have been different.

[pkafin]

Clinton did make a big push in his last 8 months in office. However, he also did many other things in this arena during his Presidency. The Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty was signed during his administration. Israeli-Syria negotiations were a serious issue that was fostered by the Clinton Administration. The White House ceremony early in the Oslo process which included a handshake between Rabin and Arafat occurred under Clinton's watch.

[pkafin]

Maybe someone wants to fact check this, but my memory tells me that Clinton met with Arafat more times than he met with any other foreign leader. I'm adding this to my other comment that pointed out that Clinton did put in time and effort throughout the duration of his Presidency in effort to improve relations between Israel and her neighbors.

[betz55]

Blinders off Marc. We are being blackmailed by a country that has an illegal nuclear arsenal, no regard for international law, Geneva conventions, apartheid behavior, or their own terrorism and are demanding that sanctions be imposed on Iran for pursuing its inalienable right within the framework of the NPT.

If Obama is interested in "change" we can believe in, he needs to "change" the same old rhetoric, dogmatic, unquestioned, unconditional support of Israel. Level the playing field and be an honest broker of the "change" he is espousing.

I will be proud of the day when the President puts the interest of America before the interest of Israel and not be crucified for it. It's a shame that American politicians are selected, not on their commitment to the best interests of America, but by vowing to put the interests of a foreign nation, Israel, first. The oath of allegiance that I said everyday in school was not to Israel, but the US.

A true "friend" of Israel would say this: end the occupation of the West Bank, stop repressing the legitimate national aspirations of the Palestinians, stop warmongering. The time has come for the US to stop pandering to Israel and it's destructive, belligerent, failed policies. And cut off their "aid" until they do so.

Why is Israel allowed to lay waste to every international law and convention without criticism and their "enemies" - any one against Israel's failed policies are not entitled to raise a hand in their own

[pkafin]

How exactly does this "blackmailing" take place?

[steamboat]

You take your blinders off ! In 2000 in Camp David, Clinton brokered a deal whereby 97% of the occupied territories would go back to the Palestinians, as was before the six-day war of '67. It WAS the PALESTINIANS who turned the deal down, NOT Israel....­.........R­emember, it takes two to tango, as they say.

[betz55]

Palestinian leadership has said it's willing to accept the pre '67 borders as basis for negotiation. Israel rejectionism has been the greatest deterrent to peace over the last 40 years.

The Camp David negotiations were where the Palestinians are overwhelmingly blamed for rejecting Barack's "generous offer", history was also rewritten to shed Palestinians in a negative light.

Here are the FACTS about the Camp David "offer."

Palestinians conceded their claim to 78% of historical Palestine, and agreed to form a new state on the remaining 22%, which is comprised of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

- Israel proposed that 69 settlements, populated by 85% of West Bank settlers would be annexed by Israel. These settlements would reduce the Palestinian state by 10%, not to mention severely disrupt travel and daily life in the West Bank.

- Israel proposed "temporary control" of yet another 10% of land that housed the most extreme of settlers. Essentially this means that a foreign power would control the land of another sovereign nation.

- The remaining areas would be broken up by Israeli bypass roads and checkpoints, forcing Palestinians to live on bantustans or reservations (like South Africans or Native Americans), in a non-contiguous state.

- Palestinians were also expected to relinquish land considered most essential for trade and tourism.

- Israel would maintain very vital controls over Palestinian water, Palestinian borders, and Palestinian airspace.

The "offer" made to Palestinians was nothing more than subjecting them to live on bantustans, like those of South

[angler]

I wish only good things for the people of Israel. Having said that, I do not see they are particularly nobel or virtuous. Indeed, their treatment of the Palestinians has been unconscionable. Being the most powerful state in the region, Israel is perfectly capable of taking care of itself. The next U.S. adminstration should relate to Israel as we would any other state. Press for peace, and no more "special" treatment.

[aznurse]

What does the world think of "joe the plumber" and his foreign policies that are making the news?

[Mahi Joe]

Obama is not going to do this alone and it would be interesting to know who he will appoint to his cabinet especially the Sec. of State, and Sec. of Defense positions. Condi was a complete failure and the Democrats need strong leadership and people in top positions who, this time, really have the ability and intelligence to do the job, unlike the past administration.

[zorongeeko]

Bill Richardson, Bill Clinton. Clitons legacy would be complete if he could broker some sort of agreement between isreal and palestine. Richardson is qualified and respected, has earned such a position with his early and bold endorsement of Barack.

[steamboat]

Don't blame Clinton. Don't blame Israel....­....Clinto­n brokered a deal whereby 97% of the occupied territory Israel won during the '67 six-day war would go back to the PLO and Arabs. It was the PLO who said NO........­...Oh yeah, read up on 1947, the UN and creation of Israel. If you do you'll find out 2 nations were created (Israel and Palestine) and it was the Arabs who double-crossed everybody and said NO... Ginsberg won't tell you about that. Nor will any of the far-left professors and spokesmen.

[SEQUOIABISON]

Mr Ambassador, "are you now or have you ever been associated with a Palestinian person" lol

Sorry, the last few days of the McCain/Palin rhetoric has reminded me of the McCarthy hearings.

Thank you Mr Ginsberg for your re-assuring observations.

Obama/Biden

[unionave]

If more Americans would take a trip once in a while they would see the mess this admin has created around the world with the help of their friends the backward collar gang . Mark knows what he is talking about . This admin has made things in the MidEast as close to unfixable as possible .

[Kassandra]

they've been poking the world like a beehive for the last 8 years. Everybody's riled up. I think I'm more nervous about what Bush/Cheney/rove could get up to between now and the swearing in than I am of McCain/Palin staging an upset.

Did anybody see this petition? http://www.nomorestolenelections.org/news/call_for_election_observers

I think it's a little late but better late than never.

[Norge]

http://www.soaw.org

Why do you not help to close for all time America's school of death?