Post (Perverse) Pervez Pakistan

Rather than face impeachment, Pakistan's disgraced President Pervez Musharraf finally resigned. So ends (more or less) America's first post-9/11 bilateral era with Pakistan, and the scorecard is utterly mixed at best with ominous prospects for the second era under Pakistan's newly-elected democratic government.

For nearly 9 years, Gen. Musharraf was our double-gaming, unreliable (and certainly undemocratic) "ally" in our enterprise to mop up what Rumsfeld- Franks & Co. failed with grave consequences to mop up inside Afghanistan and Pakistan after 9/11. Yes, we did at times obtain Musharraf's cooperation. Some of Al Qaeda's leading commanders are dead or in jail because he cooperated at a time and place of his choosing.

Despite that occasional and important assistance in the struggle against Al Qaeda...to put it mildly, we are worse off in Pakistan and in Afghanistan today than we ever have been since 9/11. If it is any consolation, the White House can't even muster its usual false bravado to camouflage the deteriorating situation.

So where does Musharraf's departure leave us insofar as the global effort to eradicate Al Qaeda from its haunts in northwest Pakistan? In one helluva pickle, to put it bluntly.

Having stuck with Musharraf for so long, U.S. ties with Pakistan are at dangerously low ebb. As much as I welcome the return of democratic rule to Pakistan, its hydra-headed coalition is unstable and at best indifferent to the militancy that is undermining Pakistan's own internal security. Moreover, neither major political party is willing to invest much domestic political capital in a struggle against extremism within its own borders that most Pakistanis view as America's war and not their own.

The consequences are enormous for our security and the survivability of a stable and secure Afghanistan.

Just today, with scores of suicide bombers infiltrating from Pakistan into Afghanistan, ten French soldiers died in a blast just miles outside of Kabul. That attack, along with the other attacks on NATO forces in recent days, is a wake up call that the situation inside Afghanistan is going from desperately bad to desperately disasterous.

Every time I hear Gen. Petreaeus or Sen. McCain exhalt their so-called defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq, I just keep picturing an underground railroad of suicide bombers making their way to Pakistan from Iraq to blow up Americans and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

And if we needed any more reminder how bad things have gotten, just last week I attended a briefing by Ted Gistaro, the senior U.S. terrorism analyst on Al Qaeda, who asserted that Al Qaeda has a far stronger foothold in northwest Pakistan than just a year ago. Teamed up with what seems to be an endless supply of Pakistani extremists, Al Qaeda is regrouping, possibly with the aid of Pakistan's renegade Directorate for Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), which has been the black widow of spy agencies supporting the Taliban and feeding American intel to it. At the same time, according to Gistaro, Al Qaeda has "replenished its bench" with a more diverse group of operatives (NYT 8-13).
The ISI is a renegade agency inside Pakistan, seemingly unanswerable to any civilian authority. It is as much a danger to us as is any other extremist group given its track record in recent months.

Want more bad news? Musharraf was the chap controlling the nuclear button in Pakistan, and now he is gone. Who is going to be watching Pakistan's nuclear installations? Who is going to prevent Pakistan's nuclear scientists from selling their souls to the highest extremist bidder?

So while Pakistan's warring factions fight over who is going to become Pakistan's next president, leaving the rest of the mess to others, what are we going to do? More importantly, is there anything we can do?

There isn't any place in the world quite like Pakistan. All the ingredients are there for an unmitigated implosion unless the civilian authorities stop fiddling. This is inspite of a strong, moderate middle class that understands the dangers the country is facing.

We can hope that Pakistan's new military leader, General Kiyani, will encourage the civilian leadership to focus on the essentials, but Kiyani is loathe to bring the military back as the arbiter of Pakistan's domestic affairs. Even if he did, that is not going to solve the fundamentals that are causing the decay of Pakistan's democracy.

I applaud Sen. Obama's muscular attitude toward Pakistan. Long ago, he asserted that if Pakistan won't finish off Al Qaeda and stop the Taliban, well then, NATO has the right to engage in hot pursuit against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. For all of McCain's criticism of Obama, the best that McCain could muster about Obama's remarks is to criticize Obama for "...wanting to bomb an ally." We have no alternative but to engage in hot pursuit, even if this angers a straighjacketed civilian government. Could you believe the critique from Mr. McCommander in Chief?

There are no good answers over what to do about Pakistan. Only painful choices fraught with adverse consequences.

To prevent Pakistan from become a supernova of extremism, the U.S. and its NATO allies will have to match hot pursuit with:

-- A NATO-European Union supported economic rescue package to prevent the collapse of Pakistan's economy.

-- Appointment of a Special NATO Envoy to Pakistan who will have the authority to negotiate and oversee a new agreement with Pakistan's civilian leadership over its anti-extremist agenda including joint military operations on Pakistan's Afghanistan border.

-- Diplomatic efforts to encourage Muslim allies of Pakistan to promote Muslim-to-Muslim public diplomacy initiatives inside Pakistan to build greater domestic support against militants.

-- International Atomic Energy Agency support to help oversee the protection of Pakistan's nuclear installations.

-- Accelerated and intense negotiations with the leaders of Pakistan's coalition to establish the best possible effective mechanisms to regain civilian control over the ISI.

Does all this add up to a better tomorrow for the cause of a stable, secure Afghanistan and Pakistan. Not necessarily.

In the end, the second era of U.S.- Pakistani relations most likely will be characterized by the deployment of more NATO-led forces inside Afghanistan, more terrorism in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a seriously deteriorating internal security situation inside Pakistan.

Hopefully, that second era will end with the eradication of Al Qaeda, a return to moderate civilian control in all respects in Pakistan, and the final defeat of the Taliban in Afghanistan. I won't hold my breathe on how long this second era will last.

This is the perverse Pervez legacy our Pakistani ally has left for us and our allies.

Comments

[research]

BushCo has driven Bin Laden and Al Qieda from Afghanistan, that has no military to speak of, into Pakistan, that has Nukes and is friendly to them.

We have a repeat of IRAN and the Shaw coming up, as US supported dictator Musharraf is deposed and an Islamic fanatic takes his place in reaction.

Then Bin Laden and Al Qeida will have Nuke armed Pakistan!

Has there ever been a worse administration than BushCo.

[Alethia]

Mr. Ginsberg: You may have experience in the Middle East, but your knowledge of Pakistani affairs frankly stinks. It is well-known that the command and control mechanism of strategic assets in Pakistan has been overseen by a committee of ten people from across government and not by one person (Musharraf, as you claim).

You also are tending to reinforce the popular though erroneous cliche portraying Pakistan as a kind of dark and evil entity.

This dark image of Pakistan is simply untrue - visit the place and see!

[elmysterio]

Hey Ginsberg! Tell these people why the US is at war with the Taliban. I'd love to hear why you think that is.

[bronceye]

Isn't it terribly ironic that bush's holy war to install democracy can be ruined with a democratically held election. Our best man in the war on terror, who picked up Al quaida #2's whenever he needed a few billion bucks, was in deed and in fact a tyrannical dictator. Now that they have a democraticaly elected president, we don't know what to do. I say that our first priority should be to get those mangoes from India before they get nuked. Oh yeh, condemn Russia for acting like Israel.

[Jamesdean]

When we needed him we hailed him as a hero and now he has become perverse?? no wonder, our foreign policy is in dumps.

[PoliticalAnimal]

This situation is the direct result of the policies of the neoCONs. They are the ones who sent more than ten billions dollars that we know of, while Pakistan was spreading nuclear technology to all of our worst enemies. It was the neoCONs who propped up Musharref even as he was providing safe haven to the terrorists and helping them rebuild. It was the neoCONs who partnered up with the same Pakistani security agencies that are allied with the Taliban and el qaeda.

neoCON policies have created this mess. to be safe as a nation, we must at a minimum be able to recognize who is our ally and who our enemy. Yet we've seen that the neoCONs invent enemies where they don't exist - Iraq; and ignore enemies where they are in plain sight - Pakistan and their fananciers in Saudi Arabia.

The neoCONs seem to be in bed with the same people attacking our Constitution, which may help explain their eagerness to help tear it apart. But I find it baffling. Even neoCONs must be patriots at heart, even if they are so misguided as to be criminally negligent. How can they work so hard to implement policies that help our enemies and hurt our own national security interests? How can any American do that to their own country? That to me is the great mystery. Everything they have done has hurt the U.S., its Constitution and its people.

Why?

[elmysterio]

Why you ask? Simple... It's called FASCISM. The roots of the neo-con movement partially come from Prescott Bush and Alan Dulles, both of which were closet Nazi sympathizers. Their vision is one of a uber-powerful United States exercising TOTAL control over the world... with a One World Government run by them and their Zionist partners. In order to pacify the population, they have to DESTROY the US society and make the people suffer... and suffer they will. Then, these neo-con 'saviors' will come along and offer to ease your burden in exchange for your liberty. That is how the NWO will operate. That is why your constitutionally protected rights must be stripped from you. They desire to usher in a full blown totalitarian police state based on hyper-capitalism/corporatism. You and I are "useless eaters" as far as they're concerned, and if many of us lose our lives in the process of building their fascist state, then so be it. They won't lose any sleep over it.

[elmysterio]

Remember, these people don't think like you and I... What is reprehensible to you, is perfectly acceptable to them. You need not look any further than the Government sponsored torture programs to see what I'm talking about.

You may or may not believe what I'm telling you, but there is much information available on the internet about these things. I encourage you to do the research yourself. Even though many people think Alex Jones is just a nutjob, he is quite right on much of what he's saying and the smears against him are purely to discredit him and the truths that he tells. Go see what he has to say. His site is called Prison Planet. It's easy to find.

[elmysterio]

You know, it would be funny if it wasn't so destructive... but the US stomps around the globe like a giant bully, pushing countries around, and making unreasonable demands, and basically acting like (in the words of Chomsky) "we own the world", and then you get all bent out of shape and don't "understand" it when the rest of the world takes offense to your actions. News Flash America: You DON'T own the world and you're an irresponsible global citizen.

[Alethia]

The vast majority of Pakistanis are not terrorists and extremists , but normal people like most of the people of this world. We should not think that that country is teetering on its last legs a la FOX NEWS reports.

Pakistan is a country with a very colorful and vibrant culture and much more than meets the eye.

Christianne Amanpour once did a mini documentary on Pakistan's urban culture which was very interesting. Unfortunately, I heard that she was repremanded for putting that country in too good a light.

[elmysterio]

Haven't we all learned by now that everything Fox News says is a lie?

[aaronhbridges]

The resurgence of the Taliban and support from ISI and FATA residents/warlords is rooted as much in the dramatic increase of US bombings and collateral damage than anything else. When will we realize that collateral damage (read murder from above) is the biggest driver of insurgency and the first rule of counterinsurgency should be "don't grow their ranks." As long as we are bombing civilians and acting like it's not murder, citizens will turn into fighters. That's what scares me about Obama: Get out of Iraq so that we can send all of those troops to Afghanistan? Let loose an overwhelming force against an insurgency hidden inside another civilian population? What outcome can we expect apart from massive collateral damage (again, civilians in their living rooms being killed by bombs from US warplanes) and the inevitable blowback? No thanks!

[elmysterio]

Yeah no faster way to make yourself some enemies than kill someone's family. The US does that ALL the time. I had a good friend who is in the Canadian military... and from what he tells me, the American soldiers are notoriously trigger happy and will shoot anything that moves... No better way to make more enemies, or as you would call them, Terrorists. Reality check: NATO are the terrorists in Afghanistan.

[mexicanamerican1948]

Good Post. The USA has always been the ally of Pakistan as it goes to the next stage, the battle against the Taliban and the fanatics.

[elmysterio]

Do you even know WHY the US is at war with the Taliban?

[debrouillard]

You are only consider a dictator when you dont serve America's interest at the expense of ur own country's. Even Saddam was a good guy when he gassed Iraqi-Kurds.

Busharaf was a great man and now even being offered save heaven in the US.

[bb922335]

what is save heaven?

[BurtR]

I have seen Mark Ginsburg on Charlie Rose and he is anyting but a Zionist. As a matter of fact he has the courage to speak out to American Jews about their unrealistic demands for Israel from the comfort of wealthy American suburbs.
Pakistan is not in the middle east, sorry to inform you.
Posters like Bhunduboy and abduncan prove that ignorance and anti semieism is not exclusive to the tribal areas of western Pakistan.

[elmysterio]

Ah Zionist or not, Ginsberg believes in American Exceptionalism (which is obvious from his writing) and fully supports the US empire as it rapes and plunders the globe. To see how your government REALLY thinks about the rest of the world, watch John Pilger's film "The War on Democracy"... there's an interview with a CIA man who was involved in Guatemala during the US sponsored terror wars there. His attitude towards the people is staggering and shocking. And sadly, all too common amongst US foreign policy "specialists".

There is a sickness in America... it's called Greed and Hubris... and it'll destroy the country, and take the rest of the world with it. So don't buy into the drivel Ginsberg says. The emperor is wearing no clothes...

[Huffingtonposter231]

Any time democracy benefits it's good for us. The strong man is gone. Can Pakistan survive as a free and democratic nation? I hope so. They a nation on the verge of total chaos. They have large territories that are controlled by tribal leaders, war lords, and bandits. Al Qaeda is using their nation as it's principal safe haven and base.

And yet, I think it was best for us if the strong man went and the people found a government it could rally behind and support.

[Ghazala]

I live just 2 hour away from the FATA area and tell you what there are no Talibans swarming the area, and there is no chaos, and we don't vow day in and day out to destroy US. Please get out of the world created by FOX. You could check out sites like http://pakspectator.com and host of others to get the real idea as what is going exactly in the Pakistan and all things related to the war on terror

Pakistan is certainly not teetering on the brink of chaos. Strong men of US have always dented Pakistan and you should keep them to your own country.

Now are you ready to adopt Musharraf?

[elmysterio]

Bravo!

[messy]

the ISI is the "axis of evil" all by itself. Ali and Naawaz are both crooks and we can be pretty sure that Musharroff will be missed. And soon.

[BurtR]

I read Ahmed Rashid's "Taliban" about 4 yrs ago. The ISI is a big problem. I wonder how involved they are in Opium trafficking. It doesn't seem to matter who is in power in Pakistan, the ISI is going to do its own thing.
Marc Ginsburg is the most intelligent blogger on this site

[apduncan1]

A King David wannabe is more accurate.