"Qum" Buy Ya

On October 25th, inspectors for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were granted access to the secret and recently outed nuclear facility under construction in a secluded mountain inside an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base near the holy city of Qum.

We now have definitive confirmation from IAEA and European diplomats that the nuclear installation was too small for peaceful nuclear enrichment, but large enough to hold enough centrifuges to convert low grade enriched uranium into enough weapons-grade uranium needed to make nuclear warheads.

In other words, the Qum nuclear facility appears to be the smoking gun in Iran's secret nuclear weapons construction program. If the neutral IAEA has come to that conclusion, I can't wait to hear from those who would love to spin it as nothing more than an innocent doughnut factory.

So much for the value of the once vaunted November 2007 U.S. intelligence agencies' National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that proffered Iran was not engaged in any weapons-oriented uranium enrichment enterprise. Even before his inspectors finished their inspection of Qum, IAEA chief Mohamad ElBaradei directly accused Iran of violating its international legal obligations by failing to disclose the Qum facility to the IAEA.

Now what?

While the technical revelations regarding the Qum nuclear enrichment facility filter out as the IAEA prepares its final report to the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. is at a crossroads regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Cautious optimism that an Obama administration-orchestrated Geneva proposal whereby Iran would agree to ship 1200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium to a third country for further enrichment under international supervision has evaporated. Living up to everyone's worst expectations of Iranian negotiating duplicity, the deal is now so bogged down with Iranian preconditions and qualifications to make further Western concessions to revive the tentative deal pointless, unless of course, Iran reverses course.

To make matters worse, Obama's engagement entreaties to Iran keep getting a "return to sender" response. And just yesterday Iran's state prosecutor signaled his intent to bring espionage charges against three detained American hikers -- making them pawns in this high stakes showdown. Moreover, Ayatollah Khamenei has gone out of his way in recent days to make pointed accusations against President Obama.

Even in the face of these Iranian retorts engagement efforts remain justified. But Iran's continued rejection of the Geneva plan, coupled with the IAEA's revelations regarding the illicit Qum nuclear facility are severely narrowing the Obama Administration's engagement policy options. All this coming at the worst possible moment for an administration trying to cope with other major foreign policy challenges. The president has stated he would give Iran until December to abide by its international obligations. Then, there will an effort to increase economic sanctions on Iran.

The atomic ayatollahs appear indifferent to any carrot or stick. Let's hope that is another Iranian negotiating ploy. Perhaps with its hands caught red-handed in the nuclear cookie jar the Iranians may reconsider and seek a face-saving way to avoid a showdown with the West and Israel. Unfortunately, there is nothing on the horizon to suggest Iran's leaders wish to meet Obama's outstretched hand half way.

 

Comments

[kentah]

It actually takes more centrifuges to create weapons grade uranium, not less, you've been fed a fallacy. In order for this to work you need to pass the uranium hexafluoride through a series of centrifuges, that means more centrifuges, that means a LARGER facility, not a smaller one. Couple this with the fact that the domestic Iranian uranium is contaminated with heavy metals such as molybdenum which restricts enrichment capability greatly and it becomes even more evident that this is another poorly constructed stepping stone in the lead-up to a manufactured war with Iran, and Iran's monetary system, and Iran's regional hegemony, and Iran's multi-thousand year old culture.

[SamEllison]

The last time any progress was made
was when a threat to Lloyd's to not insure
the shipping of Iranian bound petroleum products.
It is time to resurrect that threat.

[Wisdo]

The author Characterises Iran as being caught with its hands in "the nuclear cookie jar".

Making such a childish analogy for such a serious situation speaks volumes about the intent of this article. The reactor at Qom was announced by Iran - it was no secret. However US intelligence agencies kept its building a secret for reasons unknown. No conclusions have been made thus far about the intentions for the Qom site. If it is found that Iran does intend to have a nuclear deterrent, theres nothing anyone can do about it except ask themselves why this NPT member feels it needs one.

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

Please read the IAEA news item on tonight's Huffington Post and have a few doughnuts on me.

[persianadvocate]

The news item claims an unnamed Western diplomat as its source and "analysts". So basically there is still no evidence... lol

[Wisdo]

I read it. Again, no official conclusions have been made, no official position has been taken.

"The IAEA report offered no estimate of Fordo's capabilities"

"The IAEA also said production at Iran's main enrichment site at Natanz – revealed by dissidents in 2002 and under IAEA monitoring – was stagnating at mid-2009 levels.

The report did not offer a reason"

I am owed a few Doughnuts by you it would seem...

[chirps]

With Israel and its lap dog, America, constantly threatening it, who could blame Iran for wanting a bomb?

[baba2nde]

Accepting a premise of a "secret and recently outed nuclear facility" implies a lot remains to be known. Try this thought experiment: Iran's arsenal includes 40 nuclear bombs hidden in secret locations all over the country. Now what?

[listeningpost]

Peace?

[baba2nde]

touché!

[listeningpost]

The comments below are fascinating and informative. Marc, it's disingenuous for you to suggest that Israel is exempt of any international responsibilities because its failed to sign on to the NPT yet indict Iran for not following the letter of the Treaty. And it's obtuse to say you don't see what Israel has to do with the story when Iran is under constant and vociferous threats from a nuclear capable Israel.
It's also worth remembering who touched off this arms race, US President GW Bush, with his inflammatory "Axis of Evil" rhetoric which he followed up with the invasion of Iraq. This was wake up call to Iran and N. Korea that their sovereignty was under imminent threat. The same kind of threat that drove the arms race in the 50's and 60's. I don't like their response, but it's not irrational. Neither the US or Israel has a good track record regarding respecting other nation's sovereignty.
Also, what hasn't been reported on is the Arab world's involvement in all this intrigue, they have a huge stake in this yet their views and actions remain in the shadows.

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

I found your comment worthy of serious consideration, and acknowledge that there are countries such as Israel which have avoided international scrutiny of their nuclear sites because they elected (as was their sovereign right to do so) not to sign the NPT. But Iran signed the NPT and has consistently LIED to the IAEA about its nuclear program. As long as Iran opted to sign the NPT it committed itself to its terms. Marc

[kritikalace2011]

didn't Zain say this like two days ago? (see below)

[Zain Pasha]

I made a comment earlier on a different post about how crucial a strategy devoid of military threats is to successful engagement with Iran -- I'll expand on that here.

Israel's commitment to secrecy on its nuclear program is wrong, but it does not give Iran license to skirt its NPT obligations. Imagine if every nation operated on that logic, then a single security threat would justify cascading horizontal proliferation. With that said, Israel is the only true democracy in the Middle East (Jordan being the next best contender), which explains why the U.S. is partial to Israel's security. Moreover, Israel's size massively undercuts its nuclear survivability, which renders a nuclear Iran that much more dangerous.

With that said, I want to address the strategies for engagement with Iran. Air strikes are probably the worst idea for two reasons: 1) They won't work, the risk of operational failure is too high, and intelligence is shady at best, not to mention the distribution of Iran's nuclear facilities that we do know of isn't conducive to an efficient air strike. 2) If the U.S. even threatens, let alone strikes Iran, the conservative government will use it as a justification for more crack downs on its people, and may even experience increased support from a 'rally round the flag' effect.

I think Obama is doing the right thing...especially with his broader objectives of global non-proliferation in mind.

[Wozzeck]

"Israel is the only true democracy in the Middle East (Jordan being the next best contender), which explains why the U.S. is partial to Israel's security."

What an utterly naive statement. Since when was US foreign policy actually based on spreading democracy? How many democratically elected governments has the US toppled, either covertly or by direct military intervention? Have you never read about the CIA and Mossadegh? Try this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
Also try reading ' The Israel Lobby' by Mearsheimer and Walt:
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v28/n06/john-mearsheimer/the-israel-lobby

[Zain Pasha]

U.S. Foreign Policy has never been about democracy promotion, that is, democracy has never been a primary goal of U.S. foreign policy. This does not mean that the U.S. does not sympathize with democratic nations.

Sure the U.S. has been complicit in overthrowing democratically elected regimes in Latin America and Mossadegh, but it was in the name of larger more important interests. Even Woodrow Wilson made some decisions that might have opposed Wilsonian ideals. None of this means however that the U.S. doesn't use democracy as an auxiliary justification for its policy decisions. In fact, if it is a question of Israeli security vs. Iranian rights, the U.S. will err to the side of democracy.

Please read carefully before commenting so rudely.

P.S.

I've read quite a bit about the subjects you cite.

[Wisdo]

jordan is not a democracy. Nor is israel. Lebanon is the only "true democracy" in the middle east, since all of its people get to vote.

[deminmo]

What is the US going to do, use bunker buster bombs against
all the nuclear sites? Will Israel join in or do we go it alone? And
when the smoke clears, will we be bracing for nuclear war?
I realize the Iranians are not backing down. And Russia along with
China have vested interest in Iran, so they will not back tougher sanctions.
Do we just fight every nation that won't play be our rules? How do pay
for more war?

[Robertx5]

I have to agree with Wozzeck on this one. The AP article which is the latest I can find quotes unnamed European diplomats, who I would not exactly call honest brokers and much of the article deals with previously known information. I'll take the word of the head of the IAEA even though his statement was made 10 days ago over a planted story by someone pushing an agenda.

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

Read tonight's HuffPost news item on the IAEA report on Qum and please have some doughnuts on me. Marc

[zapata999]

nuclear rabbis are more dangerous to the stability of the world than the ayatullas who have none of such weapons.

[Winning09]

Very, Very SIlly!!!!

[Sharmine Narwani - Huffpost Blogger]

Zapata999 is right on the button. Read how Jewish religious extremists are taking over the combat units in the IDF and waging holy wars: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8232340.stm

Scary, not silly.

[NYkid]

lran should renounce to the NPT and have its own nuclear arsenal to defend itself form its nuclear enemies.

[NYkid]

lran has a right to defend itself against 200 israeIi nucIear bombs

[S1m0n]

If I was Iran, I wouldn't be buying the 'lost hikers' story, either. It's so ridiculous it insults the intelligence of anyone you tell it to.

[Inquisitr]

The North of Iraq is "Kurdistan" which is the part that was covered by the Us no fly for years before the Iraq war.

It's actually the most stable, well built area of the country. If there is any place one would go hike it would be the north.

Look up Kurdistan, I bet you've never even heard of the Kurds and you're trying to talk

[persianadvocate]

Are you kidding me? Have you ever been to Kurdistan? I have and it is NOT a stable region for these hikers to have been in. Sure, it has its periods of peace, but it is bombarded by Turkish raids and periodic Iranian raids intended to stop the terrorist activities that stem from that area.

[yappnmutt]

it doesn't even sell as the blue light special. there is no doubt the usa and israel will attack iran as soon as the mission is operational. the confiscation of iranian assets the other day signaled the time is near.

there is some satisfaction that there are a large number of people who know you are partly responsible for it.

[Ergon]

They've been confiscating Iranian assets since 1979. So?

[Inquisitr]

What's wrong with reclaiming illegally owned Iranian assets?

[persianadvocate]

Flagrant self-promotion at 4:50 AM. Israel has been pounding its chest like a 2 year old trumpeting "CHARGE!" for nearly 8 years. Iran has all but welcomed the attack, threatening that it will respond in a crushing manner.

All analysts agree that Israel cannot sustain a war with Iran alone. The US government cannot enjoin an attack without massive popular support which they will never have ;)

[Sentientbeing09]

Lets discuss Israels nuclear program instead of pretending it doesnt exist. Israel. A GENUINE rogue state that attacks a new neighbor every 18 months and whose military is responsible for the deaths of thousands of civilians every year.

Iran is no threat to the US nor world stability. Enough crying wolf. Were sick of it.

[Inquisitr]

Israel is wrong sure.

But to claim that just because Israel is wrong we should ignore Iran is foolish