Russia "Nyet!" and China "Bu Shi!" to Tougher Iran Sanctions

Iran's anti-democratic and repressive regime is a member of a fraternal club of other like-minded anti-democratic and repressive regimes which include Russia and China. They do stick together. And friends they are indeed!

In one bad week for us good guys, both Russia and China brushed aside diplomatic entreaties from the Obama administration and in a one-two punch rejected calls for tougher economic sanctions to thwart Iran's nuclear weapons development program.

Despite noble efforts to downplay Russia's "nyet", Secretary of State Clinton left Moscow empty-handed after her meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in her quest for a more united front against Iran's nuclear ambitions. And just to make sure Washington got the message Premier Putin (just coincidentally in Beijing for a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Council) made sure Mrs. Clinton was sent a reminder who really pushes the "reset" button. Putin took the ol' proverbial Russian boot off his foot and pounded it for good measure... "It's premature" to threaten sanctions against Tehran," Putin stated flatly.

And Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao followed Putin with a "Bu Shi" ("nyet" in Mandarin) when he extolled China's growing energy and trade ties to Iran to a visiting Iranian Vice President. More "Middle Kingdom" diplomatic subtelty for sure, but the message was just the same -- don't expect China to turn the economic screws on Ahmadinejad's nuclear aspirations.

Frankly, I am puzzled by Russia's and China's calculations.

At a time when both Russia and China are trying to readjust their diplomatic bearings with Washington (Obama is about to make his first visit to Beijing), why not join the West for a while in toughening sanctions against Tehran to forestall a possible military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities? There is a chance (maybe not a great chance, but a chance nonetheless) that Iran's leaders are more likely to seek a diplomatic solution knowing that they face international approbation against their illicit nuclear program and that they must now deal with a united Security Council lined up against them even if universal economic sanctions have a Swiss cheese quality to them.

Given the stakes and sense of urgency, one may conclude the Russians and Chinese foolishly prefer a military showdown between the West and Iran than a diplomatic solution.

And to what purpose? Surely a nuclear-armed Iran will destabilize the entire Middle East.

Yes, tougher economic sanctions would inflict more misery on Iran's population. But that may put more pressure on a regime already deemed illegitimate by millions of Iranians.

It's not that tougher economic sanctions themselves will humble the mullahs. Iran has mastered the art of evading U.S. sanctions through sophisticated third country smuggling and the like. However, eventually stricter sanctions will take their toll on Iran's ruling elite -- making it more difficult for the Revolutionary Guards to maintain their income and raising the cost of doing business even on the black market of sanctions busters. And there is nothing that will anger Iran's population more than being further isolated internationally because of the destructive policies of its rulers.

And what are we really talking about here? A year or two of reducing trade with Iran until the full effects of universal sanctions have a possible intended effect? If China is so concerned about losing its access to Iran's crude oil supplies, surely something can be done to assuage Beijing that it will not run out of oil. And as for Russia, the Kremlin will have a helluva time trading with Iran for many months to come if Iran's transportation and military infrastructure are taken down in an attack. And Russia's two way trade with Iran is a pittance (less than $3 billion) when compared to China's two way trade with Iran ($21 billion).

In fact, the dirty little secret about Iran's trade ties is that while China is Iran's largest trading partner, in rank order, the next largest trading partners are Japan, Turkey, South Korea, Italy and Germany -- hmmmm -- all allies of the U.S. Russia is not even in the top 5! What is Washington, Paris and London going to do about these offenders of a potential diplomatic solution?

Although Iran has strained to show more flexibility when cornered by irrefutable evidence of cheating when its secret Qum nuclear facility was uncovered, there is no evidence that it has completely ceased its uranium enrichment program. And nothing that it offered in Geneva a few weeks ago suggests otherwise.

The United States, Great Britain and France have decreed a December deadline to Iran or it will face a new set of economic sanctions. But without Russia and China helping to close the economic noose around it, Iran probably will calculate that the price for defying the West is worth the cost -- unless a credible military option is on the table.

But even the possibility of a military confrontation may not dissuade Tehran given the regime's view that an attack on Iran may have the unintended effect of uniting the Iranian people behind their discredited rulers even if it means losing its nuclear facilities (albeit temporarily). I can just hear those demonstrators back on the streets of Tehran yelling "Death to the Great Satan!" instead of "Down with the Dictator!" A conundum indeed!

 

Comments

[wwoody]

Russia and China has sold Iran billions in military equipment, such as submarines, advanced aircraft, tanks, helicopters, and advanced air defense systems, SA-20 missile system, modeled after the U.S. Patriot system. ” foreign ministry, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that threatening Iran while talks would be “counterpr­oductive.”

Moreover, with Russia and China willing to supply Iran with gasoline, a situation over which the United States has limited leverage, it would seem difficult for the U.S. to enforce any embargo short of military-backed blockade, or a military strike on Iranian nuclear facility by the U.S. or by Israel.No matter how tough the sanctions are, there is always room for American products to find its way into Iran. Most U.S. exports are found in the markets of Tehran, from GE refrigerators to Apple laptops and other items. They are smuggled via the Arabian Gulf States. In addition, the sanctions have restricted U.S. companies from doing business in Iran and opened the door for Russia, Chinese and other European firms to do business in Iran.
We see what they want us to see what on the table,like vintage 84 aircraft with no replacement parts, nuclear program, yet no nuclear bomb in near future. Someone has their head in the sand, if they believe that Iran don't have and nuclear weapons.

[Roozbeh]

For almost 30 years RUSSIA and some European countries paid Iranians to chant 'DEATH TO AMERICA'. Why? The answers are many, but, if anyone, for just a second, could imagine how the situation in the region would have been, had the US and Iran had a friendly relations. Both the US and Iran would have been, among other things, more prosperous than they are now, for one.

Then there is the economical side to it. Again, if the US and Iran were friends the US companies of all sorts would have benefitted tremendously. A big economical boost for the US.

Another one is to keep American military busy and push it to the brink.

Geopolitical considerations are also very important. Iran's forign policy is now considerably dictated by the Russians. In other word, Russia has Iran in its hand.

Without Israel's existance, at least during Shah's time, the Arab armies would had run Iran over times over. The current Iranian regime will not last forever, but, Arabs will still be there.

[Roozbeh]

I do not mean at all that the US should have a better relations with thr current regime in Iran. I mean that outside forces like Russia and China play a huge role to sustain the regime in Tehran.

[bayside]

I keep going back to why would you guys put sanctions on iran when they dont even have a nuke yet ,and the start of iraq war when sadamn switched over to requiring euroes rather than dollars to buy its oil came to mind. Much like iran just did..

[Palspal2]

Seems the elephant in this room is Israel - entirely unmentioned by Ginsberg - as if it was not Israel that would do the bombing - and as if this 'threat' to the unmentioned Israel should be taken up on behalf of Israel as if it were a threat to all. As if Israel should continue to violently occupy (and annex) its neighbors land without a price.

'Fraid not. The best way to stabilize a very unstable Middle East - thanks to US and Israeli aggression - would be if Iran's nuclear capability acted as a counter to these aggressor states.

Three questions: When did the US last invade another country? When did Israel? When did Iran?

[Wisdo]

Apologies if Im misinterpreting this, but is the entire article sarcasm?

"us good guys"

Who exactly is "us" and are we going to talk about international diplomacy in cartoon terms of "good guys" and "bad guys" like a bunch of 3rd graders?

"their illicit nuclear program". Irans nuclear program is not "illicit" it is entirely legal and sanctioned by the UN, far more so than Israel's secret, unsanctioned nuclear program for instance.

"irrefutable evidence of cheating when its secret Qum nuclear facility was uncovered"

Its QOM nuclear facility was not "uncovered" it was announced, and is therefore not secret and was not "cheating" since they announced it within the official timeframe. The Author is clearly joking or does not read the papers, eithjer way, the 'evidence' is clearly refutable.

"Surely a nuclear-armed Iran will destabilize the entire Middle East?

The middle east is not stable. Far from it. Surely a nuclear-armed Iran will help to stabilize it?

Again my apologies if this is all just a big joke - it reads like one.

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

Iran's secret Qum reactor was about as legal as the torture at Gitmo. Cheaters caught red handed are great at fabricating excuses. So much for being an apologist for Iran's deceit.

[Wisdo]

I would prefer to be an 'apologist' for Iran's so-called "deceit" than an apologist for further American attacks on middle eastern countries based on faulty intelligence, incorrect assumptions and the promise of hopelessly optimistic outcomes.

[brklynivn]

Iran is Russia's and China's neighbour, not ours. If they don't have a problem with them, why should we?

[Freenation]

all the arguments kept aside, i can literally write a lot: mr. ambassdor while representing US why are you so obsessed with other countries like iran and israel is this really not stretching your official position?

in one of your earlier articles at HP you stated that you are a zionist (quote) if that is the case then you are a party who is directly in conflict of interest in matters of Israel, Iran and Palestine, hope I am right?

[Amb. Marc Ginsberg - Huffpost Blogger]

Many thanks for commenting. I am a strong believer in the UN and global security. If Iran is not abiding by the Non-Proliferation Treaty ( it is a signatory), that is why I am encouraging Russia and China to step up to the plate. Marc

[Freenation]

thanks for the response, what about the countries with nuclear stock piles but are not part of the NPT like India, Pakistan, Israel, N Korea (suspected)?

who deserves more scrutiny one which is giving out something or the ones which are giving out nothing and yet beating the drums for NPT?

[wildedge]

It isn't the "who" of Iran's trading partners, but the "what" - the Russians and the Chinese (and the Turks, BTW) have long been working on an integrated energy supply web with Iran - oil, natural gas, and, yes, nuclear power. They also know, as we continue to ignore, that the economic balance of power in the global economy is in the process of shifting eastward. In such formulations, Iran could play a pivotal role; it is important then that Iran remain relatively stable, with any radical chang in government occurring rapidly, without external pressure, and with minimum disruption of Iran's economic structure.
I can't believe that a member of the diplomatic community wouldn't know this, so I'm guess you're just trying to nudge us in the direction of what you see as our 'national interest,' maintaining dominace in the global economy. But the method for accomplishing this that you suggest - confrontation with upstart nations - belongs to another era.
The election fraud of this past year has doomed Iran's present government, but there must be patience for th internal contradictions to work themselves out, that's the only way a more moderate, pragmatic government can come to power there. A forced collapse of the current government, whether by economic sanctions or by military confrontation, would destabilize Iran in a manner benefiting no one.

[Fight4USA8]

-------THE DAYS OF PRE-EMPTIVE SANCTION & PRE-EMPTIVE WAR IS OVER!

-------"China & Russian "It's premature" to threaten sanctions against Tehran."

-------Russian & China ARE CORRECT. YOU DON'T TALK ABOUT SANCTION WHEN IRAN AGREES TO SEND IT'S URANIUM TO FRANCE & RUSSIAN AND AGREES FOR IAEA INSPECTION.

------Iran is not the only problem President Obama has to deal with, HE HAS A LOT OF PRESSING AND BIGGER PROBLEMS, thanks to his DIPLOMACY skills, Iran is now willing to do a lot more than ever before.

------"Secretary of State Clinton left Moscow empty-handed after her meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov."

-----Why don't people mention all the good things China, Russia and many nations around the world agreed to do with USA as partners for the 1st time in many years, BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT OBAMA'S DIPLOMACY?

[NURREDIN]

Russia and China don't have a problem with Iran. They never overthrew Iran's government with the help of the Ayatollahs,put a monarch in power who proceeded to murder 100,000 of his fellow citizens,and refused to extradite him when the Iranians demanded to put him on trial. We did. Can you blame them for being pi**ed off at us?

[yappnmutt]

if israel attacks iran as a proxy for the usa both will go down short of a nuclear war which israel threatened in 1973 when it was on the verge of defeat. who will suffer most in this extreme scenario? certainly not russia and china. they would, in fact, come out of any military confrontation between the usa and iran as the winners.

russia and china, along with a growing group of active and philosophical allies, desire a multi polar world with no central power,i.e., the dollar, hegemony. they are winning the game they are playing.

[duxguts]

Maybe sending Hillary Clinton to convince them to impose sanctions wasn't such a good idea. We could have sent Bill and called it a private trip. In the meantime Wall Street has imposed sanctions on us.

[alexa07]

"In one bad week for us good guys, both Russia and China brushed aside diplomatic entreaties from the Obama administration and in a one-two punch rejected calls for tougher economic sanctions to thwart Iran's nuclear weapons development program."

Iraq, a war advocated by the big, pro-occupation, pro-settlement lobbies in Washington, has destroyed much of the credibility of American leadership around the world. Now the same groups are gunning up the Americans to take on the Iranians. Don't expect the rest of the world to be so willing or compliant. It's not the US Congress.

[Rog49Thomas]

Of course, there is a way other than sanctions to show Iran that we are tough on nuclear weapons.

How about we "take out" Dimona and tell Iran if it doesn't stop, they're next?

[Rog49Thomas]

The temerity of these pesky foreigners.

Not only do they not share our view of the world, And hop in line with our policy as they should.

But they also are so rude and boorish when they tell us "no".

"Putin took the ol' proverbial Russian boot off his foot and pounded it for good measure... "It's premature" to threaten sanctions against Tehran," Putin stated flatly."

Thank God that Anne Landers is not alive to see this disgusting lapse in manners.