Supreme Leader to Demonstrators: "Drop Dead!"

I am writing this as the sun is about to rise in Iran. I have this dreaded feeling that very bad things are about to happen throughout Iran in a few short hours and I pray I am wrong.

In his Friday Prayer address, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei essentially threw down the gaunlet at the foot of presidential contender Mir Hossein Mousavi and his allies warning that no matter how the Guardian Council may see it, the election was divinely free and fair no ifs, ands, or buts. Khamenei ominously warned that any further mass demonstrations, such as the ones planned by Mousavi's legions of supporters for today, are now considered a direct threat to the regime and no longer deemed by the mullahs a mere protest against a rigged election. Demonstrators, according to Khamenei's Fatwa are now fair game for the regime and will be met with the full force of the state.

If, as predicted, Mousavi's hundreds of thousands of followers take to the streets throughout Iran, Khamenei and Ahmadenijad may follow through and unleash the much feared Basij Militia -- the regime's dreaded Nazi equivalent of the SS and Gestapo. Think of the Basij Militia as roaming divisions of religious zealots armed with pipes, chains, knives, swords and guns who only answer to Ahmadinejad. Under his direct control and dispatched by his hand-picked Revolutionary Guard commanders, the Basij have begun to transform Iran from a theocracy to an outright military dictatorship and protesters will not merely face a round up, but the full wrath of the state's deadly force.

That full force is something Americans barely comprehend -- with good reason. Iran being a police state, Khamenei has decided that no matter the magnitude of the outcry, whether domestic or foreign, he would rather commit state sponsored mayhem and murder against his citizens rather than cave into the demands of his opponents. While overtly Khamanei is no firebrand like his presidential puppet Ahmadenijad, he is a diabolical believer in a pontifical-like divine ordination of his absolutist authority. In the warped reasoning of such tyrants, It is Allah's will that his rule be absolute, and, therefore, preservation of the Islamic Republic and the mullahs' monopoly on such divine-right power is worth every drop of spilt Iranian blood, especially if that blood is spilt to prevent the evil hand of foreign forces from overthrowing the Islamic Republic.

In 1979, when faced with the prospect of massive demonstrations against his rule, Shah Reza Pahlavi was convinced by Jimmy Carter not to fire on his citizens, and the rest as they say, was another nail in the coffin of Jimmy Carter's presidency. In 2009, when faced with a similar street conflagration, Ayatollah Khamenei will pay no heed to President Obama, and that, I venture to say, will be the first big well-deserved nail in the Ayatollah's coffin for the violence he will unleash on Tehran's streets.

I say that because while Khamanei may succeed in silencing his detractors in the short run, the ruling clerical establishment is not universally beholden to him, and may very well turn against the Supreme Leader if they believe that his rigidity has irrevocably turned the Iranian public against the regime itself. Unlike the Pope, a supreme leader can theoretically be religiously "impeached" by the Council of Experts.

Unfortunately, the titanic struggle of wills between the Supreme Leader (how Orwellian a title) and Mousavi that is so riveting may very well seal the fate of any durable prospect of a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.

Why so? Because Khamenei and Ahmadenijad are drinking their own foreign interventionist Kool Aide and assert the regime itself is under assault by the West.

Indeed, in yesterday's ominous address, the Supreme Leader brought up the dreaded bogeyman Britain and denounced it as the "most evil" of Iran's enemies. Like feeding candy to a baby, exhorting the regime's supporters to blame the UK for the disturbances is all Khamanei's mad followers need to strike at pro-democracy demonstrators. Khamenei and Ahmadenijad are holding their fire against the U.S. because in the annals of Persian history the UK warrants a much more demonic place.

For good measure, the Supreme Leader can't stand the BBC's Persian radio and television broadcasts, which have become the most feared instrument of truth against the regime and are virtually impossible to jam. And, just to make sure the U.S. is caught up in the regime's anti-foreign tirade, Ahmadenijad's political hatchetman, Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi fired a preemptive shot at Washington warning President Obama that any further statements on his part will irrevocably impair any hope for a serious dialogue -- as if Ahmadenijad was going to listen to reason in the first place.

Quite likely, Khamanei fears taking on Obama and the U.S. right now, as well. He may be calculating that to do so will only further inflame his domestic detractors who are mesmerized with the possibilities of what Obama's outreach to Iran may mean for Iran. Khamanei may also want to keep the door open to Washington to manifest an artificial appearance of external reasonableness while cracking heads inside his country. But deep down inside, Khamanei likely believes that the U.S. is instigating the crisis, and that Washington's preoccupation with Iran's nuclear program is nothing but a stalking horse to ultimately bring down the regime. All the more reason why, in my estimation, the Ayatollah will want to accelerate his nuclear weapons program regardless of any rapprochement with the Obama Administration.

That may backfire.

The more the regime clings to its nightmarish fear of its own people, and fails to accommodate to the forces at play, the more likely the regime may accelerate its own decay.

Those in the U.S. constituting the discredited neoconservative bund demanding a clarion call to the ramparts from President Obama to Mousavi's followers dangerously misunderstand Iran and the Ayatollah's calculations.

As tempting as it is for seriously callow Iranian observers such as Charles Krauthammer or Paul Wolfowitz to denounce the Obama Administration's carefully calibrated approach, they do so merely to cleanse their flawed reasoning for invading Iraq. They believe that the Iran today (like Iraq or Eastern Europe or the Phillipines) is ripe for a democratic uprising if only the U.S. rushes in a megaphone or three of rhetorical support no matter how many may die in the streets (ask the Kurds what Wolfowitz's clarion call brought onto them in 1992. These miscalculations always like at the root of what trips up such emotion-laiden flawed logic. How interesting to read Wolfowitz's Washington Post Op Ed yesterday taking one giant leap over his most recent and utter catastrophic miscalculation of what an American intervention could accomplish just next door to Iran.

Other than scoring cheap political points against the administration and perhaps feeling good about it, there is absolutely no basis to assert that should President Obama stand on the rooftop of the White House shouting out his solidarity with Iran's women and students, as such action would help tip the balance against the Ayatollah -- it is the Ayatollah's own obstinancy that will bring that about.

Rather, it could very well backfire on America's own goals and objectives and the hopes and aspirations of the very demonstrators we are most committed to supporting.

Indeed, the advice coming out of Iran from Mousavi's supporters is totally contrary to the flawed neocon logic. Iranian intermediaries in the UAE who are communicating with their brethren in Tehran are sending carefully worded messages urging Washington not to take Khamenei's or Ahmadinejad's bait.

But why would chaps like Krauthammer or Wolfowitz respect the wishes of Iran's anti-Khamenei democratic forces if such entreaties fly in the face of their own preconceived ideological beliefs?

I trust that those excoriating the White House until now will take a moment and listen not to their own voices, but to the credible messages coming out of Iran from the regime's opponents and accept that they are serving no one inside Iran by trying to provoke an irrational and unhelpful statement out of the president at this time -- a statement that would be seized as an excuse to unleash the Basij.

But should blood flow through the streets of Tehran as many fear, the president will be justified in taking a stronger position against the regime, which will no longer have a pretext to justify its crackdown from anything the president may have said to date to blame America for its resort to force and violence.

Comments

[scottpot]

When one million Americans protested the 2004 Republican National Convention we were ignored by the media. 1,806 people were arrested ,New York was like a police-state..If you protest the illegal war in Iraq you will be ignored or tarred as anti-American.The media lauds Iranian protesters as freedom lovers trying to 'have their voices heard' Smell the hypocrisy, Kill your television.

[RTIII]

You're right - and I don't have a working television.

When I read, "That full force is something Americans barely comprehend -- with good reason. Iran being a police state, " I thought to myself, "Boy! There's one author who doesn't know much about America; WE are a police-state too!"

-frown-
.

[progressiveconnie]

GOOD MORNING!!! MY FELLOW HOMO SAPIENS WHICH MEANS THE SPECIES WHO IS WISE.
The Ayatollah Khamenei has unleashed his murdering, terrorist thugs in his Muslim militias against his own people who are demanding honest elections.
Another Ayatollah sent Iran's children into mine fields to protect his tanks.
The Ayatollah worships a Muslim god and Bush worships the Christian god who told Bush to attack Iraq and as a result millions of Iraqis have been slaughtered or maimed and after 7 years Iraqis are still being slaughtered and maimed and do the Christians in America give a damn about this horrific 7 year old tragedy???!!! From all indications, not really, so one might conclude that the Thou Shalt Not Kill Commandment has become meaningless, of course, taking an historic perspective that has always been the case.
There is no question that the 4 Gods of the Dark Side still reign supreme on this planet and until humanity rids itself of these 4 violent, cruel, warmongering Gods and embraces a spirituality that holds all things sacred and acknowledges the oneness of all things there will never be peace on this earth.

[zaz33]

An alternative point of view on the "stolen" election by James Petras. -

http://www.rense.com/general86/elect.htm

[amoraDeus]

The SUKARNO, BATHIST, Perestroika, Georgian, Ukranian ( revolutions paid by Soros and company) are good examples of US created and inspired revolutions... I don't have a solution for the problems of Iran. Who am I? I also don't have a solution for any countries problems, besides of: inform yourselves properly; get involved in your own country politics, STOP CONSUMING and start living.
Outside of that, the people that feel so strong about Iran should bring the demonstrators home to the US and let the Iranian people that are not interested in changing their country (the majority) there.
From here we know very little and cannot do much about the constant harassment by the US in other countries business. Remember Guatemala, Iran, Philipines, Brazil, Chile, all over Africa and all over the middle east?
All of you should be ashamed of the posturing you are doing.
How sad!

[amoraDeus]

Why aren't you doing something about all the political war criminals in your midst? Rumsfeld is one. US oligarchy is a bunch of criminals.
Democray does not exist in the USA. Robama the man of hope became the man of NOPE.
Clean your mess at home and get out of the mind set that: 1 The world owes you a living; 2 - US has the right to impose its culture(?) on other people; 3 - The rest of the world are you vassals.
The US oligarchy has destroyed democracy the US appeared to have. US/UK empire is dead. Unemployment, homelessness, a huge foreign debt, dollar devaluation is on its way, Federal Reserve is printing fiat money like crazy, corruption on Capitol Hill (billions of dollars from lobbyists to your senators/congress representatives election war chest) and other levels of government, environmental destruction and degradation, water shortage, high poverty among children, medical bills skyrocketing and you have time to be concerned about Iran?

[breakingpoint]

Iran will work it out. They actually have elections in that country.
Even women are allowed to vote, unlike our big trading oil debt partners Saudi Arabia.

If the American People want to be really frightened take a look at Mexico, place is on fire and spilling over into US borders. http://jischinger.wordpress.com/

[zaz33]

breakingpoint - The last election in Mexico was disputed and there were mass demonstrations. I'm not sure the US MSM even covered it.

The alternative news and opinion sites are catching up on this story and are skeptical of the accepted "facts" They argue that the contest was between Islamic socialist Ahmadinejad and the capitalist wealthy class represented by Mousavi.

I've become convinced that Ahmadinejad won for the same reasons Chavez continues to win in Venezuela. There are not enough wealthy, educated, english speaking capitalist supporters in Iran to win an election.

[AAKAlan]

No, but good try.
The reason Acmedinijad "won" is because he got more votes than there were voters.

[ValereP]

Beware the carefully worded messages coming from other heads of state...

From Persian Press today: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says that the world must respect Iran and the "triumph" of its incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the election. "We call on the world to respect Iran because there are attempts to undermine the strength of the Iranian revolution," said Chavez on Sunday in his weekly radio and television address. "Ahmadinejad's triumph was a triumph all the way. They are trying to stain Ahmadinejad's triumph and through that weaken the government and the Islamic revolution. I know they will not succeed," Chavez said. The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry also issued a statement blasting "the fierce and unfounded campaign from outside [of Iran] to discredit" Iran's president.

Chavez dragging around a dead red herring for Amadinejad. It's not outsiders, or even outraged Iranian protestors who seek to weaken the government and revolution. Chavez sees as clearly as the rest of the watching world that theocratic thugs have terrorized, vandalized, and stained the Iranian republic. But only a fellow dictator would insist that such a state be one man's triumph!

[Meteor]

In world opinion and certainly in Iran, among people with some wisdom, reason and
spiritual depth, it is recognized that "The Supreme Leader" and his lap dog Ahmadinejad
are finished. They deserve no respect and they will get none. They are a monstrous joke.

[GrainOSand]

II
Who are we? We are the worldwide counterparts of the people dying on the streets. We are the people lighting the candles, getting on our knees in prayer, crying tears of sadness concerning the news of ego-driven madness run amok -- WTF. We are the people who long for a better world. We are the people who look tyrants in the eyes and we appeal to their hearts when we say -- enough. Enough killing, enough of being willing to destroy life to maintain feeble power. We are the people who monitor the ticking clock as it nears the hour of redemption and retribution. We are the people who propose better solutions than killing your sister, your brother, someone’s father, or their mother. Please, you who deem yourself supreme...step up and lead and show us what such a title means. If the opposition is wrong let the protest marches continue, why should they concern the legitimate and strong?

[ApolloSpeaks]

IMPEACHMENT OF KHAMENIE?

Mark says that Khamenie can be "impeached" by the Grand Council. Tell me Mark how many divisions does the Grand Council have?

[ApolloSpeaks]

"Grand Council" should read "Guardian Council."

[ApolloSpeaks]

We now know that like Iran's sham democracy the Guardian Council is also a sham with no power over the Supreme Leader-devised to confuse the outside world with the semblance of a check and balance on the Supreme Leader's power which from the ascension of the Ayatollah Khomeine in 1979 was meant to be absolute and supreme as he is God's supreme and infallible agent on earth..

[dsws]

Assembly of Experts, not Guardian Council.

I think that if Khamenei completely renounces his claim to legitimacy, he's finished. Secular Iranians are against him. If pious Iranians turn against him too, eventually the armed forces will split. There are only so many people willing to shoot someone just for going out on a roof and saying "God is great". There would be more people willing to die than basically-decent members of the military would tolerate their fellows killing.

[ApolloSpeaks]

DROP DEAD TO GRAND BARGIN

The mad, ideologically driven revolutionary murdering mullahs have also said by their actions "drop dead" to Obama and any hope for reaching a " Grand Bargin" on nuclear weapons and support of Islamic extremism and terror.The question now is will Obama humiliate himself and embarrass his country by engaging with Tehran?

[JZ735]

Iran's supposed Supreme Leader is anything but...what a pathetic display of dried up, old, withered, ancient hate, paranoia and religious lunacy...

[HelloFunnyWorld]

"The titanic struggle of wills between the Supreme Leader (how Orwellian a title) and Mousavi that is so riveting that it may very well seal the fate of any durable prospect of a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran."

A case of "You wish" .... Ambassador??

[kamachanda]

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made Neda the face of Iran under the present regime.

[demlake]

What I don't understand is why the fixed the election.

Moussavi would be a puppet, just as Ahmadinejad is.

So why not let the votes be counted, and carry on as before?