The ferocious battle for Syria, now in its fifth bloody month, appears to be reaching a decisive climax -- this according to knowledgeable Middle East observers with whom I just met in Europe over the past couple of weeks.
Fortunately, albeit far too belatedly, after agonizing weeks of crippling and damaging hesitation, the Obama Administration finally dragged itself out of its self-imposed policy coma into championing global sanctions of Syria's oil and gas industry exports -- the most important source of foreign hard currency for the Assad regime other than Iranian handouts. Yet it failed to take an all-important decisive step to punish international companies doing business with Syria's energy sector -- yet another error of commission by the Administration which Congress was quick to pick up upon. The Administration self-congratulatory Syria sanctions policy is deemed "measured." By smuggled social media accounts reflecting widespread Syrian opinion, its public prefers to call U.S. policy "bankrupt."
Although full throttled U.S. leadership against Assad's sources of revenue is welcomed, short of unlikely international direct military intervention against Assad, getting nations to stop purchasing Syrian crude is not going to be quick and easy nor guaranty a swift fall of the regime. Even British Prime Minister Cameron is not with the program. He refuses to join in sanctioning Syrian oil exports under the alibi that it could harm the Syrian people more than the regime.
Syria exports 148,000 barrels per day (at today's prices that means Syria earns about $15 million each day from its declining exports). It adds up to enough to keep the Assad's coffers sufficiently full to purchase arms from Russia -- which continues to ship arms to Assad.
Also on the plus side, the Obama Administration is finally exerting a modicum of global leadership against Assad by trying to take charge of a dispiriting international response to the revolt. Backed up by a relatively hollow "President's Statement" from the United Nations Security Council and angry accusations from Saudi Arabia, and other Arab nations against Assad, the United States has embraced this diplomatic cavalry charge to seek further international action against Assad -- action it could have taken long ago without them.
Better late than never!
Ironically, in an odd juxtaposition to her own painful-to-hear tongue twisting on Syria, Secretary of State Clinton urged nations doing business with Syria to cut off trade and arms sales to the regime and "get on the right side of history." Memo to Secretary Clinton: mostly because of an absence of clarity and paralyzed State Department leadership that convinced Assad he was "too big to fail" -- the U.S. has been consistently on the wrong side of history since the revolt began in Syria.
Even if Assad were to survive, or be forced to go, the U.S. has lost precious credibility in Syria -- particularly among the regime's potential opposition successors -- by permitting a questionable Libya policy to hijack an effective Syrian policy. Just because the White House fired before it aimed on Libya (and was bewitched politically as a result) was simply not good foreign policy to avoid leading on Syria -- a nation with far more strategic implications for the U.S. than Libya ever will have for the U.S.
Even with these new sanctions, and a more tangible demonstration of policy creativity, the U.S. still has yet to throw in the towel with the devil it knows in Damascus. For the U.S. to get on the right side of history for itself -- let alone with the Syrian people, it will have to do much more to help the disparate and divided Syrian opposition to unite and provide it desperately needed financial support -- something it will not do yet.
Notwithstanding nearly universal disappointment -- here at home and abroad with my colleagues in the administration -- over their consequential failure of leadership on Syria, the real question is what will the Syrian people do in the weeks ahead, since they -- not economic sanctions or any U.S. policy -- will decide Assad's fate?
That time may soon come.
In a quiet, but not so secret understanding with Ankara, Washington has hitchhiked itself onto yet another Assad lifeline by supporting Turkey's last ditch diplomatic push providing Assad 15 days to get his reform act together (and by extension to gain the upper hand against the revolt), or face a more muscular response from a Turkish government that is actually positioned to possibly tip the scales against Assad.
More time translates into more days for Assad to militarily mop up Syria's restive cities without any meaningful foreign action that could make that more difficult. And given news out of Syria, Assad's military is using every minute to escalate its crackdown before Turkey's ultimatum expires.
Consequently, all eyes are on whether Assad will break the back of the popular revolt militarily within 15 days and then promise and promote Potemkin-like reforms -- this time at a the point of the gun barrel aimed at a dispirited Syrian opposition which faces the cruel realty that Assad's forces are not about to turn against him. Having gained a potentially decisive victory throughout Syria's second-tier cities under revolt, Assad may have the luxury of some breathing space to buy more time to crush his opponents on his terms, rather than be crushed by the tightening noose of international sanctions, Turkish recriminations, and a resilient opposition more certain of Assad's demise.
So where does the popular revolt appear to be heading in the coming weeks?
There are two levels of cities in Syria: the two largest cities of Damascus and Aleppo. Most of the regime's violent repression has been directed at Syria's second-tier cities of Homs, Hama and now, a naval assault on the port city of Latakia on the Mediterranean.
So far, the assaults on Homs and Hama appear to have destroyed much of these cities and enabled the Syrian military to gain the upper hand in controlling their populations -- for the time being at least. Demonstrations and killings are continuing, but on a smaller scale as a result of the exercise of this state-sponsored brute force -- even during Ramadan.
Despite the terrible loss of life and repression, fissures in the regime foretelling an imminent implosion have not reached anything that resembles mortal danger to Assad.
Syrian security troops loyal to Assad (with the help of Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah troops) have been able to keep Damascus and Aleppo mostly under lock and key -- aided by a Syrian business elite that is trying to have it both ways -- keeping its options open by supporting both the regime and reaching out to the opposition.
Moreover, despite early anecdotal information trickling out of Syria of dissension and revolt in several divisions, there has been little in the way of open mutiny by the military against the regime. In fact, the military's siege of Homs and Hama, and now Latakia and small towns across the nation have evidenced more cohesion and rank unity than many observers had initially predicted and which many had hoped would evaporate after the early tales of inflicted civilian atrocities trickled throughout their majority Sunni ranks.
Assad's more ruthless brother, Maher -- who commands Syria's military and its security forces -- has purged the military of anyone deemed a threat (purged = shot). And forces deemed absolutely loyal to the regime have been deployed to the field.
And as long as the Syrian opposition remains painfully divided -- as it was in Iran -- the business elites of Aleppo and Damascus will try to have their cake and eat it, too. Reaching out to the opposition while maintaining allegiance to Assad's cronies. And as long as the ever-crucial mercantile community refuses to resolutely break with the regime, Damascus and Aleppo will remain more or less under Assad's control since they have much sway over each city's populations.
Consequently, by the end of August -- through the long, hot mosque-instigated revolt -- either Assad, with Iranian help, will have (at least temporarily) succeeded in breaking the back of the revolt, thus enabling Assad to humor Turkey and by extension, Washington by donning that ol reformer's mask he so effectively wore with visiting westerners more or less on terms that do not constitute a surrender to his opponents, or Turkey will finally pull the plug and begin tangibly fostering more and more support for the opposition.
What seems to be emerging from this struggle given the tide of battle is likely a Syrian version of Iran's post presidential-style repression. An opposition more or less beaten into submission and a seething Syrian population waiting for the next spark to turn on Assad after burying its dead. A stalemate without NATO intervention that will enable Assad to hang on, consolidate and regroup, and as is the Assad's family signature ploy, pick off his enemies one by one.
Unlike the rebels in Libya, Syria's civilians are mostly unarmed. Unlike their compatriots in Egypt, without mass outpourings in Aleppo and Damascus, the Syrian military seems to be slowly, street by street, replicating the tyranny of Assad's father against any city that rose up against the regime.
This is not a scenario the Syrian people deserve, but it may be their short-term fate given the divisions inside and outside Syria and Turkey's and Iran's respective roles in deciding Assad's fate.
I hope I am wrong, and that the people of Damascus and Aleppo, energized by the courage of their compatriots in Hama and Homs and their chagrin over Assad's terror against their fellow citizens, finally take to the streets in defiant solidarity against the regime before Assad is able to buy the time he needs to consolidate his army's field campaign. I hope the Syrians deny Assad the time he needs to turn the tide before Turkey's ultimatum expires. Only then, will the dominoes begin to fall and the army breaks ranks.
Admittedly, it is a terrible prescription for Syrians to achieve their much deserved, liberty, freedom, and dignity.
Daniel Wagner and Azadeh Pourzand: Iran and Saudi Arabia's Wrestling Match
Dr. Josef Olmert: The Noose Is Tightening for Bashar Assad in Syria
Bessma Momani: Syrian Brutality: The Unintended Consequence of Mubarak's Trial
http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=108778
http://cosmos.ucc.ie/cs1064/jabowen/IPSC/articles/article0005345.html
- from "Open Letter to the President"
signed by Amb. Marc Ginsberg
http://www.iraqwatch.org/perspectives/galbraith-letter-040202.htm
Compare with August 30, 2010:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/amb-marc-ginsberg/iraqs-remains-of-the-day_b_699891.html
"Syria using Iranian snipers as violent crackdown continues
16 August 2011
IRANIAN snipers are being used in Syria to put down the growing tide of demonstrations against president Bashar al-Assad, claims a member of the regime's secret police who has fled to Turkey.
The 25-year-old officer offered a detailed account of increasingly brutal tactics used by security forces to end the five-month uprising, including parading women naked through the streets and shoot-to-kill orders against unarmed protesters...."
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Syria-using-Iranian-snipers-as. 6819350.jp
Your anti Iranian prejudice is well known.
You neocons are pushing more h--a te and for more war.
In America we have a fiscal disaster because of your policies.
I know it's inconvenient to those like you who support Assad and the Iranian mullahs.
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/news/Syria-using-Iranian-snipers-as.6819350.jp
We have here in the last little while been led quite far away from truth and our own self-interest by taking the words of unnamed persons with unknown agendas as credible. I won't be a party to more of the same.
Do you think that any Iranians in Syria would be uniformed or announce their presence?
There have been numerous reports of Iranians helping Assad...all of which makes sense since Iran stands to lose its only state ally in the region if the Assad regime falls. It also loses its conduit to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Read Brewerstroupe post on 3.19pm for more info about this man.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=APCO_Worldwide
Mr. Ginsberg seems to be an advocate of the further continuation of the so called NeoCon agenda: Iraq first, folllowed by Syria, Libya, Iran ... not necessarily in that order.
Speaking in true NeoCon tradition, Mr. Ginsberg also mentions liberty, freedom, and dignity, as if the "lighning example" Iraq has become a "beacon" of liberty, freedom and dignity after the American invasion.
I do remain with one question, though: What does Mr. Ginsberg understand with "dignity"?
Is that the same sort of dignity that the Iraqis were so generously granted in Abu Ghraib?
If I were an Arab these days living in the Middle East, I would hang my room full of garlic in a desperate attempt to try and keep the Americans away.
Because when Muslims hear them say words like "democracy, freedom, liberty and dignity", to them it means that more Muslim blood is what they're after.
And you speak for all Muslims?
Funny how those words you revile were the most repeated by muslims in places like Tahrir Square in Cairo.
By PIERRE PICCININ
This July, I travelled to Syria, with the purpose of finding out for myself the origins of the present political conflict.
I was able to roam the country at liberty, from Dera, Damascus, Homs, Hama, Maraat-an-Numan, Jisr-al-Shigur, on the Turkish border, even Deir-ez-Sor, all places where the media had signalled outbursts of violence.........
...On Friday 15 July, I entered Hama. Very quickly I found myself surrounded by the youths in control.......That same night on July 15, I received news feeds from the AFP announcing a million protestors all over Syria, of which 500,000 in Hama alone.
In Hama however, they could not have been more than 10,000.
This ‘information’ was even more absurd due to the fact that the city of Hama counts only 370,000 inhabitants......
....this is blatant disinformation, propaganda at its finest. 500,000 protestors can shake the very foundations of a regime, 10,000 however are of no consequence.
Furthermore, all the ‘information’ regarding the Syrian situation has been twisted similarly for months now.
http://www.counterpunch.org/piccinin08042011.html
Are you claiming that you and our US Media do not have a agenda?
In the first place Mr Ambassador, I did not go (as is obvious from the title in capitals at the head of my post).
Secondly, Piccini's report confirms that of :
Dr Franklin Lamb, former Professor of International Law at Northwestern College of Law in Oregon in May of this year:
"One expected to see fear, tension, and people hiding in homes, ubiquitous police .... military vehicles, empty streets after dusk, reticence to discuss politics, tense faces on the streets.
None of this was to seen in Syria’s capital and villages to the west."
http://tinyurl.com/3hfauv3
"every major, independent news organization" - also reported the story of a "lesbian blogger" who turned out to be a Scotsman with a beard, stories of "peaceful protesters" who are somehow armed with machine guns and your stories of Saddam's nukes etc. - but not the pro - Assad demos:
http://tinyurl.com/3l8azz3
So why doesn't the Assad regime allow the world media to freely roam the country in order to report on how peaceful and idyllic things *really* are?
For the same reason the U.S. allowed only "embedded" journalists into Iraq, Israel bans journalists from the OT. It is a double edged sword as Patrick Seale, veteran Journalist and Syria expert explains:
"A striking feature of the crisis has been the absence of reliable information about the situation. No one outside Syria really knows in detail what is happening. This has allowed all sorts of rumours to circulate, some of them plainly false.....This prohibition has backfired against the government in many ways, as it has allowed the protesters to influence opinion outside the country by means of Facebook and videos taken by mobile phones, and so forth.
As a result, foreign opinion does not believe government statements, while the opposition has been given the opportunity to spread stories of gross abuses by the security services – some of which are true, but others may be false or exaggerated. "
http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=86732
But: Better Late Than Never or Too Little Too Late.
"and we are not saved..."
Also that Iraqi oil revenues would pay for their "Liberation"
Remember.
Our secret military are in over 150 countries, probably Syria too, inciting revolution, assassination of democratically elected leaders and other acts of war.
The USA spend 54% of it taxes on war, and more than all the rest of the world combined.
We are in some 3 or 5 wars right now.
Peaceful revolutions have a much better chance of successes, than violent ones.
The constitutional mandate that only Congress can declare war is ignored by our corrupt Politicians.
F&F
- from "Open Letter to the President"
signed by Amb. Marc Ginsberg.