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Amir Madani

Amir Madani

Posted: October 19, 2010 04:45 PM

According to the Washington Post, Afghan and Arab sources recently reported that high-level negotiations took place between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The talks were hosted by Saudi Arabia and came to an end over a year ago. The paper's sources revealed that for the first time they believed Taliban representatives were fully authorized to speak for the Quetta Shura (the Afghan Taliban organization based in Pakistan) and its leader Mohammad Omar.

There is a general consensus among experts that there is no military solution to the problems in Afghanistan. In talking to BBC's Katty Kay about a possible end to the war there, Bob Woodward, author of Obama's Wars stated, "it will not be a military victory but a sort of 'diplomatic settlement'." In view of the fact that the Afghan problem cannot have a military solution, one could argue that conducting negotiations with the every player (including Taliban) to end the war is the right thing to do. It is also normal for players in unwinnable conflicts to eventually enter a phase of negotiation with the enemy to bring about a truce or a lasting solution. But while these negotiations are legitimate, so are reflection and questions about the nature of outcome of such negotiation.

Will secret talks with the Taliban deepen the conflict or lead to a deal which ensures peace and democracy for the country? Ten years after the Bonn Conference, what has changed if the war against the Taliban is turning into a deal with the Taliban? What might be the consequences of paying Taliban commanders to lay down their arms? Lastly, why is it that on the 10th anniversary of the Afghan war the international community and democracies are forced to negotiate with the Taliban and their supporters? It is well known that the Taliban, or at least large section of them, are organically linked to al-Qaeda, and it is hardly a disputed fact that the Taliban are financially and ideologically supported by Saudi Arabia and by Pakistan's intelligence agency (ISI) for logistics.

It is also well known that the Taliban are Pakistan's geopolitical instrument, and that they have provided hospitality to bin Laden, who accepted responsibility for the 9/11 attack. The Taliban offered protection to those who accepted responsibility for the terrorist acts of 9/11. The connections are not simply a question of past responsibility, but also a current. According to the Wall Street Journal, members of Pakistan's intelligence agency have recently been pressing Taliban field commanders to fight the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan; it is well known that the ISI-Taliban alliance is behind the attacks on NATO supply trucks.

Now, it appears that the Karzai government lacks enough courage to confront the Taliban. Negotiators on behalf of the international community believe there is no solution but to escape from Afghanistan which, in effect, means to leave everything to the Taliban. In its last study on the Afghan security outlook, the authoritative International Council On Security wrote:

The clearest lesson of the 9/11 attacks was that global security cannot be disentangled from security in the world's ungoverned spaces, from Afghanistan to Somalia. The lack of international interest in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 allowed the Taliban to rise, and created space for Al Qaeda bases in Afghanistan. International actors must learn this lesson as its bottom line -- Al Qaeda and other international terrorist groups cannot be allowed a safe haven in Afghanistan, regardless of its political terrain. Similarly the Taliban and its affiliates must be prevented from fomenting chaos in other neighboring states, particularly in Central Asia. If either of these scenarios comes to pass, the international community will have failed in Afghanistan -- an outcome which would raise serious questions about the very future of NATO and international order.

So if there is no military solution for Afghanistan and if negotiations with the Afghan Taliban organization based in Pakistan (Quetta Shura, the Haqqani Network) will lead to the victory of the Taliban, what might be an alternative that would allow an exit from the Afghan quagmire that could also make it impossible for the Taliban to come back? The alternative would be a democratic one that implements three, as-yet untried, interconnected policies. These are: (1) to support the civilian government in Pakistan; (2) to ask democratic reforms in Saudi Arabia; and (3) to work towards a federal Afghanistan and leave the south of the country to the Taliban in case of victory in regional elections, to let the noble Pashtuns decide whether they want to live with the brutal policies of the Taliban, or to try the alternative and democratic solution.

 
 
 
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05:35 PM on 10/23/2010
Another interesting article, Amir! Thanks!

I also enjoyed reading the comments.
02:46 PM on 10/22/2010
It's really a mess. I think another option that should be considered it providing economic aid to Afghanistan and Iraq rather than dropping bombs on them. Our killing the local population only drives them into the arms of the Taliban. If we can stabilize the country economically, we might have a shot at getting out of the region with some sort of grace. However, since we haven't even been able to stabilize our own plummeting economy, the chances of helping any other countries out at this point are slim to none.
08:14 AM on 10/21/2010
an excellent and succinct piece!
05:17 PM on 10/20/2010
Apparently, Mr.Madami still believes "Peace with Honor" is still possible in Afganistan through democratic means. Unfortunately, if there were free and fair elections in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afganistan, Osama bin Laden would win hands down. We are just wasting money propping up the weak, two-faced civilian government in Pakistan. The whole area is not worth one more American life.

The terrorist threat will last a generation no matter what we do
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Bergen2
02:35 PM on 10/20/2010
Democracy will not work in a country when the majority of the population is illiterate and uneducated, and when half of the population is not allowed to participate in society because of their gender. Perhaps a strong secular dictator who would institute secular reforms, (such as requiring the education of all children) with an iron fist, would open a path to eventual democracy.
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Carl Caroli
Give peace a chance
11:56 AM on 10/20/2010
It's pretty obvious we are not winning hearts and minds, let alone militarily. Time to accept the reality that our influence there is minimal and unwanted, and get out. Let the regional players decide their fate.
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Edward Standley
opinionated jerk
10:42 AM on 10/20/2010
At least from older Afghans, there will be quite a bit of support for the Taliban. The Taliban began forming after the Soviets left Afghanistan. A lot of lawless bands of former mujahedeen, formerly armed and funded by the U.S., were terrorizing Afghan civilians. The Taliban formed to eliminate these bands. The central government in Kabul is no closer to policing the countryside now than before. Rural Aghans are well aware of this. Read Stephen Tanner's "Afghanistan, a Military History.
09:37 AM on 10/20/2010
good post.
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f0rTyLeGz
Everything is falling.
03:45 AM on 10/20/2010
Talking with the Karzi government and the Taliban is a waste of time and money. They are liars and criminals. Talking about democracy with the Taliban is meaningless, and with Karzi it is expensive. If we need the talks to pretend we have won... then okay I guess.

But really if we can't win, we can't win ANYTHING.
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John Hay
An Obama Supporter with experience
03:19 AM on 10/20/2010
“Bring Australia’s Troops Home” Andrew Wilkie - Australian MP"

http://www.tellingthoughts.com/us-politics/bring-australias-troops-home-andrew-wilkie-afghanistan

Excerpt: "The Prime Minister said yesterday she believes Australia has the right strategy in Afghanistan. She is wrong, dangerously wrong. The reality is that the best plan the Australian Government can come up with so far is simply to continue to support whatever the US Government comes up with. And that alone is no plan - it’s just reinforcing failure".
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12:29 AM on 10/20/2010
It is beyond me why anyone would expect to invade a culture and by the use of force expect them to change to our liking. It is human nature to resist forced change of which the very idea of is extremely arrogant. If I'm not mistaken, it was the west in modern times who first invaded the Mid East meddling in their affairs. Cultures evolve and maybe our western culture will get over the idea that we are the worlds dictators with superior social structures and religions.

I can't say how true it is, but I read on these boards that the Mid East was even beginning to dress like the west untill the west tried to impose our culture on them. That was the point where resistance began about 60 odd years ago - - I would be interested to hear any thoughts or facts about the possible truth in this regard.
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Dari Darius
WorldStreams.org - Producer
11:42 PM on 10/20/2010
In regard to dressing like the West... it depends on the country. For instance, in Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria, there is no dress code. Women are free to dress as they wish. Recently some of the more radical have taken to wearing head scarves, etc. I think it is in reaction to the West imposing it's culture on other countries like Afghanistan and Iraq.

In Iran, there is a definite dress code for women and also for men. This is dictated by the current fanatically religious government. Iran has what is referred to as the "fashion or morality police" who watch for violations of the public dress code. You may dress as you wish in your home.

In Saudi Arabia, which is one of the most strict Islamic countries - there is also a dress code. Of course, in Afghanistan -- you have the Taliban and their strict rules. And Iraq used to be a freer place for women before the US got there.
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Richard Pearce banned
Never let them tell you it can't be done.
05:08 PM on 10/19/2010
"It is also well known that the Taliban are Pakistan's geopolitical instrument..."

If so, why is the proportion of the Pakistan budget devoted to wiping out the Taliban larger than the proportion of the US budget devoted to that same goal? Why have there been more Pakistani casualties from them engaging in that fight than there has been American ones?

It seems the US 'exit strategy' is going to involve blaming the Pakistanis for the failure of the effort, which seems to be rooted in the need to find a way to get out, while still being able to tell the American people that the failure was not the result of the limitations of the US armed forces (great at smashing through armed resistance, terrible at dealing with the local population).
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GuyRC
FYI: there is a cream for micro-bio.
07:19 PM on 10/19/2010
Because the Pakistan intelligence agency is not controlled by the Pakistan government or military.