It is evident this week that the Kremlin's consensus was behind the change of power in Kyrgyzstan. This is clearly demonstrated by the loan bestowed on Kyrgyzstan, in favor of the new Kyrgz rulers who had already engaged in talks concerning the "non justifed" US bases. President Medvedev, with no obvious concern, even if only formal, for Kyrgyzstan's national sovereignty, invited destitute President K. Bakiyev to leave the country in order to avoid another Afghanistan.
A mere five years separated the presidential revolt in Kyrgyzstan from the colorful revolution, which was in line with the chromatic revolutions in the Ukraine and Georgia. This was the revolution which brought K. Bakiyev to power. The U.S. backed president failed to produce even a modest formal democracy. The chromatic revolutions were endorsed by the West. The fall of the Ex-soviet system and the subsequent crises were exploited and the West failed to assert itself with the values of true democracy and liberty. Instead the West appeared to aspire to greater territorial access, eying resources with the idea of incrementing their own markets and attaining military bases for use in the battle against rampant Talibanism.
In Kyrgyzstan, this time just like the time before, everything has changed at the top yet nothing has changed in the country's social balance. In the Ex-Soviet Republics the governing power remains firmly in the hands of the old hierarchy of the ex-communist parties which have been transformed into the bourgeoisie. These governing entities are linked with the heirs of the Kremlin. New central-Asian authorities have emerged from the ashes of the Soviet Union are the expression of tribes, groups, clans and the traditional way to impose the authority (Khan). These groups have restored historic traditions through despotism. Today over there continues to be no sign of the creation of those national and democratic elites.
The democratic institutions like parliament, political parties, trade unions...etc, they were born. Notwithstanding these aspects, the essence of power has remained firmly in the hands of the traditional spheres which operate within the old scheme and amid new and old corruption where the legal economy as well as various illicit dealings is managed. It is in this context that masses of individuals deprived of democratic rights find refuge in sectarian confessional movements. In this sectarian realm which manipulates the varies forms of Talibanism, , in line with or organic to al-Qaeda, ask for complete obedience by promising salvation in the after-life.
Had it not been for Central-Asia's almost intact resources, geographical position in the heart of the Eurasian continent at Russia's footsteps, in the close proximity to China, Iran, Afghanistan and for the U.S. and Russian military bases that are being built or already present there, the change in the apex of power of this poor, small country would have gone unnoticed.
Bases like Manas and others assist in covering U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan. They also facilitate the Kremlin's rise and help advance the reconquest of territories and areas belonging to the Ex- Soviet Union. Indeed the most important aspect of the Kyrgyzstan case is the considerable step this new Russia has accomplished in affirming itself as an emerging power outside its own borders. This tendency was already evident in the Caucasus intervention where Russia supported Ossetia against the imprudent Saakashvili.
Medevdev, who is Putin's designated candidate and elected President by people, sternly affirms that what has occurred in Kyrgyzstan could repeat itself elsewhere. This is the evidence of the new trend. When Russia was in a crisis situation, it has accepted the arrival and presence of the U.S. and that of some European Nations. Nowadays, Russia is sending a clear message that it wants its lost territories back. In the Ex-Soviet Union, Russia as the most equal among equals, has managed to control everything and everyone and right now has the clear intent to reacquire back what it has lost.
The reemergence of Russia's intentions, politics and above all Putin's desires is doubtless. Putin is working in order to take over full control of the power. Putin proceeded to reconstitute the state bureaucracy and even managed to control civilian resistance (the murder of Anna Politkovskaja still remains undefined). Furthermore, the new Russia succeeded in being persuasive with the disrespectful opponents of the new strong state, from the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf to London:
By excluding hierarchies, Putin became himself the sole hierarchy and main shareholder of Gazprom (which equals Russia). He has become the uncontested Czar and is at origin of every law. So Putin is the architect of the system in which the state's bureaucracy is the soul and President Medvedev as the external expression. Thus Putin, the Czar with ice-cold eyes, has transformed energy into a strategic commodity. He has also duly moved to renew the arsenal of weapons and institutionalized neoczarism. The expansion towards Caucasus and Central-Asia is a demonstration of the plan's enactment with the purpose of controlling raw materials, above all those which are energy-related.
The Russia of Putin-Medvedev starts making agreements and building pipelines."The North Stream" runs below the Baltic Sea (via Gerhard Schroeder) serving Northern Europe, and "The South Stream" serving Southern Europe. Russia informs the leaders of Turkmenistan that it is willing to buy Turkmen gas ( considered about 30% of the global gas resources)at an above market price. When Turkmenistan demonstrates a willingness to sell a portion, the Russians inform Turkmenistan of their intent to buy the entire quantity. Can the people of Turkmenistan close their eyes to the incident in nearby Kyrgyzstan?
Putin purchases energy whenever possible, from Central Asia to Algeria. The intent of these buys is apparently for re-sale, but the true nature is strategic use. With the pretext of unpaid Ukrainian energy bill, Putin shut down the energy provided to Europe during the freezing winters. Russia enters the Iranian energy market and deflects the Iranian energy towards the Indo-Chinese area in order to keep it away from the global markets. During his own presidency Putin had already stated to Duma: "The stock exchange in Russia for the commerce of petrol, gas and other commodities should be traded in rubles".
This could also mean the exclusion of the dollar from this stock exchange circuit. Furthermore, Tehran and Caracas could also decide to join the petrol stock exchange project. In summing up this exclusion with the fact that almost half of the U.S. debt is financed by China and other Asian central banks, the dollar system ( already deprived of gold coverage ) could collapse as the currency used for trading the energy commodities .
Russia as a full member of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) operate already at a regional level and through the "Islamic Conference" would increase its influence in the Islamic world. In the meanwhile, it has transformed its perennial problems like Afghanistan into a U.S. and NATO problem. In the aftermath of Bush's Iraq campaign, which took place in the framework of Neo-Con logic, Russia through a policy of understanding towards Tehran, will be present in the Persian Gulf, a fact historically unprecedented. Hence not only the futility but the danger of heavy sanctions against Iran which could determine the falling of it into the Russian-Chinese arms. While Putin plans his new Russia strategic line, President Medvedev arrives at suggesting Bakiyev to abandon Kyrgyzstan ,this after having punished the risk-taking Saakashvili . The global and regional powers continue to manage areas under their influence by institutionalizing and legitimizing interventionism, forgetting that someone could also move to legitimize terrorism. The powers control everything following the geopolitical logic and often neglect to consider the existence of millions of human beings who are in need of security, laws and their respective rights. The lack of security is an epidemic that could easily turn into a pandemic.
Amir Madani