Small lies, big lies, and the Israel lobby

To those of us for whom the claim that the Israel lobby is all-powerful is neither a well established truism nor an ugly piece of anti-Semitism, the evidence presented in support of this claim matters a great deal. Surely Washington has more lobbies than a derelict dog has fleas. And, lobbying is a constitutionally protected activity, like the right to free speech and the right to vote. Hence, the pivotal question is whether the Israel lobby is significantly more powerful than others, and whether it is able to check-mate the usually pro-Arab oil companies, the arms manufacturers, and the other relevant lobbies that affect our foreign policy.

There are quite a few who have taken for granted the veracity of claims that the Israel lobby is all-powerful on the grounds that a new book making this case has been written by two highly regarded scholars; John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt of the University of Chicago and Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, respectively. In fact, the quantitative data they cite amount to (at best) a very thin reed on which to hang such a mighty claim. I will donate my house to anyone who can find a half respectable social science publication that would publish what these two present as evidence.

The authors write:

In 1997, Fortune Magazine asked members of Congress and their staffs to list the most powerful lobbies in Washington. AIPAC was ranked second behind the American Association of Retired People, but ahead of the AFL-CIO and the National Rifle Association. A National Journal study in March of 2005 reached a similar conclusion, placing AIPAC in second place (tied with AARP) in the Washington 'muscle rankings'.

In fact, the Fortune survey was not made of Congress members and their staffs, but of 2,165 "Washington insiders" (chosen by two panels whose membership has not been disclosed), a group that includes an unknown number of congressional members and staffers, among an unknown number of others. More importantly, in both surveys roughly six out of every seven persons asked, i.e.most of those asked, did not respond. The authors' claim that members of Congress and their staffs ranked the Israel lobby higher than many others is based on 15% of those who were surveyed. No respectable social scientist (and many unrespectable ones) would dare to suggest that they have a sense of what any given group holds on the basis of the responses from such a small minority.

Moreover, social science has numerous procedures to correct for such a deficit of responses. One can return to the same group and elicit more answers, draw another sample, or study the differences between those who did and did not respond--and adjust the conclusions accordingly. None of these methods were employed here.

The number of people who responded is so small that an additional vote or two, or a change of mind by one or two respondents, would have significantly altered the results of the survey. The total number of the National Journal responses--which did survey only law makers--is 73. (Congress, the last time I checked, had 535 members and at least 17,000 staff members). The National Federation of Independent Business was ranked first and the National Rifle Association second--with nine and eight votes, respectively! In third place, ranked as the most powerful by seven members, was the US Chamber of Commerce. The AARP and AIPAC were each given the nod by five members. The oil companies and the arms manufacturers were not on the list of those to be ranked. I wonder if any student at GWU could get away with a term paper that held that such small numbers support a generalization about any given population or the ranking of a set of groups.

Some will say that all of this is nothing other than typical social science hair splitting. But, these data go to the heart of the matter. Is the Israel lobby just one among a whole slew of lobbies, each pulling Washington its own way? Is it one of the more effective ones? Or can it trump all the others? What the data show is surprisingly little. The book stands much more on accusatory anecdotes than, as the authors' claim, on evidence.

***
Micro-blogging: To see the kind of virulent anti-Semitism that rages in Europe, go to Google video, scroll all the way down, click on UK and use the search bar.

Amitai Etzioni is University Professor at The George Washington University, and the author of Security First: For A Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy (Yale University Press, 2007).
www.securityfirstbook.com

Comments

[Justtellthetruth]

It is Important to mention, in that many people do not know it, that two of AIPACs top officials will soon go on trial for espionage agaisnt the US for the crime of illegally receiving classifed US intel on Iran with the intent of using the information to help foment war between the US and Iran.

They received the intel from Larry Franklin, who worked with Douglas Feith at the office of special planning, the very same group that helped try to manufacture intel in order to start the war wit Iran.

Larry Franklin has already been convicted and is sentences to 12 years in federal Prison. He was stung by the the FBI (with the cooperation of the CIA).

The two AIPAC officials were supposed to go on trial this summer, but the trial is continually being delayed.

Think of the throngs of senators, congressman, and administation officials that still try to claw over each other in order to speak at AIPAC functions, even in light of the fact that it houses Israeli spys who are trying to illegally influence our military action and policies.

Also consider that this story, although mentioned in the new york times and the washington post, gets almost no press at all, despite all of the incredible implications that it carries. There is a lobby, and it is functioning quite well (from the ultra right wing Israeli perspective, that is)

[bethinCary]

I agree with other posters here-just becasue you say the data about how much power AIPAC has,is skewed makes not a whit of difference to the intelligent people who watch the news.
We can hear it when we know Pelosi was lobbied by AIPAC just before the Kyl Leiberman vote, we can see it stepped up in Jewish/AIPAC writers like Klein,Ledeen, Perlman or others-who want to beat the drum for more war....
we can also see it how much foreign aid Israel gets from it-I had mistakenly thought it was $14,000 per Israeli. I've read it's more like $44,000 per Israeli. So it's just like one big happy GOP-Israeli circle: The GOP give Israel $$$, then the Israeli/Jews turns around and gives it back to the GOP. They are content with keeping themselves happy-while ignoring the rest of the country-the 99% of different background­s/religion­s-the %70 of Americans who oppose war. A rather selfish "I'll get mine" approach to life isn't it? considering these same Jew/Christian alliances are destroying the land with bombs, killing humans (definitely against the Commandmen­ts),lettin­g people suffer(in Palestine), profitting off of war (materialism).....
Your argumant does not hold up. Americans have eyes.

[miamirat]

i'm not so much interested in what the US or AIPAC present in their PR campaigns from day to day. Looking at more than 50-years of history of ACTIONS ... Israel has been the us governments tool for middle east Chaos over and over again. Israel has structured it's people and land as one big military installation and has been ruled by a series of ultra right wingers not unlike the neocons that are the (lack of) brains behind the Bush administration. Having returned to the Homeland they abandoned to claim it again ... is the equivalent of the Native American Indians expecting to regain the lands of the usa (sea to shining sea). Makes no legal or logical sense to anyone except those that think there's something in it for them.

There's one generality that I can easily apply to the reprobates in the current GWB administration. George, for example, knows exactly what kind of person he is. He also believes he's still better than you ... or else why would he have been chosen as the "decider".
The failing of the Jimmy Swaggerts, the Jim Bakers, etc. in the leading religious institutitutions know what GOD awfully sinners they always were ... and Know that you're even worse. I think the jewish leadership always has the same problem. They know what awfull things they (pre-emptively) do ... and they know that they are the CHOSEN PEOPLE, so the rest of humanity are the UNCHOSEN.

These chosen leaders know they have done awfully things for a thousand years to everywhere they go, because they know that awfull things will be done to them in return ... and of course, they're right. But it never gets thru to them that their pre-emptive evils have a way of making it happen.

Both the jewish people and the wasps will not have fewer enemies until they quit making those enemies. Our collective leadership in Britain, USA, and Israel are just a bunch of Bullies with no other talent.

[Countess]

We have an entire generation of Democratic lawmakers totally committed to Israel even if it means destroying the United States and you think this is normal lobbying? Please don't insult our intelligence.

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

With such a false choice, now who's insulting whose intelligence?

[BluGrrl]

Mr. Amitai Etzioni,

I see your out doing "damage control" for AIPAC... So how much do they pay you to do this, either in influence or dollars?

The old claim that questioning AIPAC is antisemitic is a used up and dry excuse that will not last forever.

BTW, I have a problem with ALL lobbies who feel they need to give people money and gifts to influence their opinions. If you have to bribe someone to agree with your idea then your idea must be flawed at best.

[avergejoe]

It will be fun to hear how Dersh distorts this one.
Makes you wonder about other 'incidents'!

Chicago Tribune Special report
New revelations in attack on American spy ship
Veterans, documents suggest U.S., Israel didn't tell full story of deadly '67 incident
October 2, 2007

For Lockwood and many other survivors, the anger is mixed with incredulity: that Israel would attack an important ally, then attribute the attack to a case of mistaken identity by Israeli pilots who had confused the U.S. Navy's most distinctive ship with an Egyptian horse-cavalry transport that was half its size and had a dissimilar profile. And they're also incredulous that, for years, their own government would reject their calls for a thorough investigation.

Four decades later, many of the more than two dozen Liberty survivors located and interviewed by the Tribune cannot talk about the attack without shouting or weeping.

Their anger has been stoked by the declassification of government documents and the recollections of former military personnel, including some quoted in this article for the first time, which strengthen doubts about the U.S. National Security Agency's position that it never intercepted the communications of the attacking Israeli pilots -- communications, according to those who remember seeing them, that showed the Israelis knew they were attacking an American naval vessel.

The documents also suggest that the U.S. government, anxious to spare Israel's reputation and preserve its alliance with the U.S., closed the case with what even some of its participants now say was a hasty and seriously flawed investigation.

In declassifying the most recent and largest batch of materials last June 8, the 40th anniversary of the attack, the NSA, this country's chief U.S. electronic­-intellige­nce-gather­er and code-breaker, acknowledged that the attack had "become the center of considerable controversy and debate." It was not the agency's intention, it said, "to prove or disprove any one set of conclusions, many of which can be drawn from a thorough review of this material," available athttp://www.nsa.gov/liberty .

[Justtellthetruth]

We were attacked on 9/11 at very least in part because of our perceived complicity in supporting the Israeli settler Movement, which is the primary cause of the israeli Palestinian conflict, and has persisted for more and 4 decades. It is widely believed to be the engine that drives M.E. terrorist recruiting and fund raising.

The settlements are morally reprehensible and indefensible. They are not even widely supported in Israel, as is evidenced by the very charter of the Kadima Party, which includes putting an end to the vast majority of settlements.

They are roundly condemned in the UN, by almost every single country represented there.

Officially, the US condemns the settlements, yet for the last 4 decades we have paid 3 to 6 billion dollars a year in foreign aid and never to be repaid loan guarantees that go to cover the massive deficit caused by the settlement movement and the occupation that protects it.

The Iraq study group, the 9/11 commission, many CIA analysts,tony blair, Bush senior, all agree that they inflame terrorism, hurt our chances in Iraq, and contributed to 9/11.

Yet, not a single thing has been suggested or accomplished to fix this already reprehensible situation. However, almost every single top and not so top legislator from both partys regularly trip over each other to speak at AIPACs meetings, and AIPAC is the single largest US contribute to this wolrd condemned settlement movement.

There is an Israel Lobby, and it is driving our foreign policy in a suicidal direction in order to further policies that many if not most Israelis abhor.

[MoreWarDems4aDraft]

ROTFLMAO! AHahahaha!

Yeah, J, Edgar Hoover used to claim there was no such thing as orginized crime or the Mafia too. I guess when his agents ask around about it people said na, there's no Mafia around here.

AHahahaha! My sides are killing me.

[JudyGee]

Thank you for your blog. All the misinformation, the distortions and just plain lies regarding AIPAC are always spewing forth from the same propoganda mill. The same twisted Jew-hating that made Europe a graveyard has once again gained popularity, especially among the ignorant. A perfect foil for make-believe scholars and their fairy tales.
"Fictional history", as one professor I spoke to, has coined these diatribes, is all the rage these days. And, sadly, rage is something we all live with daily, as healthcare continues to be unaffordable, jobs scarce, wages unliveable, and the American ideal that served to keep us together, crumbles.
And, of course, the Chews did it.

[sparkandy]

What fictional history is that? The one where the refugees from WWII blew up the King David hotel, threw the Btits out, removed the native people and took over their land, thus causing resentment of the supporters of that nation that exists to this day?
And to hate the fact that we let another country (in conjunction with the Born Agains) dictate our policies in regard to the Middle East by applying a little strategic baksheesh, does not mean hatred of Jews.
I think the old whiny "Oh, woe is me. I'm a poor persecuted Jew" thing has about run its course.

[Gherkin]

So who got Etzioni's house?

[yappnmutt]

what i have a very difficult time understanding is why such a large group of americans with one thing in common spend so much time and money advocating for another country. do france, germany,br­itain,japa­n and canada have similar groups of americans advocating for their interests?

[WOLFWARRIOR]

~ TWO FRIEND"S ~

There were two friend's out fishing one day
- They took out a small boat - upon the water ...
They criss-crossed the lake all morning - and found very little fish ...
Then one friend had his fishing rod bent low - as he fought his catch of the day ...
AS he fought and fought to bring in the day's blessing - of the biggest fish of all ...
He suddenly slipped - and fell into the water's - he kept hanging on - to the rod pledging to never let go ...
His friend reached out to save his friend - and save his friend's catch of the day's blessing ....
In the struggle to save - what they claimed to be there's - the friend in the water - clutched and grabbed - his friend that was still safe in the boat ...
Hanging on to his blessing of the day - and pulling at his friend - to save his blessing of the catch of the day - which he claimed to be his ...
AS his blessing pulled hard - and he pulled harder on his friend - on the slippery boat - his friend also was pulled into the water ...
AS his friend - tried to get back into the boat - the friend hanging on to his great
catch - which was pulling harder ...
Both friend's were pulled under - and soon was lost to the water ....
And there great catch of the day - swam away with all the blessing's - That which they Had claimed was there's ...

....

[ReasonIsMyReligion]

Oy.

[Misanthrope2]

"Hence, the pivotal question is whether the Israeli lobby is significantly more powerful than others,..."

Shouldn't the question be whether a foreign government should be in a position to lobby and bribe our legislators at all? posted 10/04/2007 at 15:36:17

[sparkandy]

Amen. If any of the Europeans tried it, can you imagine the outrage?

[clevelandchick]

What I want to know is why Nancy Pelosi was roundly booed at the AIPAC conference when she said the Democrats would get us out of Iraq?

Why would AIPAC want us to stay in Iraq? If they are a group which is made up of American Israelis is it not fair to glean from their wish to keep us in Iraq that their interests lie with their Israeli citizenship over their American citizenship?

The Occupation of Iraq costs 12 billion dollars a month to maintain. American men and women are dying. We're torturing people. Our military is stretched to the limit. It's destroyed our global reputation. The whole mess was based on LIES. Why in the world would an 'American' PAC want to keep our nation embroiled in this quagmire? It's truly not in the best interests of America so I can only conclude that it is because it's in the best interests of Israel.

[EspressoAtNoon]

AIPAC booed her when she stated that she intended to attach an amendment to the Iraq surge supplemant that would require the white house to get permission from Congress to attack Iran.

AIPAC is intent on the US going to war with Iran.

[mikeodd]

Naturally, Israel is comfortable with US troops flanking Iran. In the event of all-region warfare, US troops will be expected to do the heavy lifting there. Meanwhile Israeli warhawks will simply destroy Lebanon for the thousandth time and poke at Syria's underbelly.

[rroy]

I would suggest JJWFromMe,and anybody else who has a mind to,see what they can find out about former popular Illinois Senator Chuck Percy,(R)Il..I made reference to this incident on a previous Blog response.

In short,because of something Mr.Percy said that was unfavorable about our unqualified military and financial support of Israel,Just about every main thoroughfare in the Chicago Area was emblazoned with expensive billboard ads,Urging defeat of Chuck Percy because he was an enemy of Israel!In the upcomming election!Percy was defeated and succeeded by a Central Illinois Hick who always wore a bow tie,named Paul Simon(now deceased).Mr.Simon never missed an oportunity to lick the boots of his benefactors.
I lived in Chicago at the time and remember the incident vividly.
I also remember a later 60 Minutes program featuring Mike Wallace interviewing officers of AIPAC,and their bragging of their ability to unseat Percy.
Tell me this did not send a message,and a powerful one to Washington incumbants about AIPAC!

[Misanthrope2]

Paul Simon was very popular.

An avowed social liberal, Simon spent his career denouncing racism, supporting women's rights, and encouraging equality for racial and ethnic minorities. He was a fiscal conservative who described himself as "a pay-as-you-go Democrat." As a senator, he overhauled the college student loan program to allow students and their families to borrow directly from the federal government, thus saving money by not using private banks to disperse the loans.[6]

He fiercely took a stand against obscenity and violence in the media in the 1990s. His efforts against media violence partly led to the adoption of V-chip.[7]

He opposed the Contract with America and Clintonian welfare reforms, and was one of 21 senators who voted against the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act.[8]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Simon_%28politician%29

And Percy was attacked because he supported the sale of AWACS planes to Saudi Arabia. No shit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuck_Percy

[rroy]

"And Percy was attacked because he supported the sale of AWACS to Saudi Arabia"

I guess one interpretation of history is as good as another.

If we want to get into things like selling AWACS to foreign countries,how about Israel selling AWACS to Comunist China?How's that for another illustration of Israeli Hippocracy and oportunism? This incident occured before the escalation of trade and diplomatic communications with China by the U.S.

Saidi Arabia was,at the time,and still is an ally of the U.S.

What really matters is AIPAC was,and still is a powerful and influential organization comprised of dual citzened people who excersize undue influence on American elected leaders and our foreign policies!

Incidentaly,I consider my politics to be Liberal and find it is the Neocons of this country who are more prone to licking the boots of AIPAC than the Liberals.