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Don't Believe the Hype: Support for Health Care Reform is Still Fundamentally Strong


In the last two days several new public polls have been released showing some softening of support for the health care reform being pushed by President Obama and Democrats in Congress. To be clear, these results are disappointing. Support for "Obama's plan" is, indeed, down, and voters are worried that reform, while good for the nation overall, could have a negative impact on them and their families.

However, a closer reading of these surveys shows that the underlying dynamics of the debate have not changed and still show strong support for reform; the prospects of President Obama and his allies winning long-term support for their efforts are still very good. The public knows the status quo is unsustainable and they want fundamental change now. Voters don't trust the Republicans on the issue at all and trust Obama and the Democrats far more. Most important, when they hear what's likely to be in the final plan, they favor it.

More specifically:

The public knows the status quo is unsustainable and they want fundamental change now.

  • In the new CBS/New York Times survey 66 percent worry that they will lose their coverage, 75 percent worry that their health care costs will go up and 80 percent worry that more Americans will become uninsured if we don't pass reform.
  • In the same survey, 82 percent say that our health care system needs fundamental changes (33 percent say the system needs to be completely rebuilt and 49 percent say it needs fundamental changes)
  • In the new Time magazine survey 69 percent say it is important (with 46 percent saying very important) to pass major health care reform "in the next few months" versus just 28 percent who say it its not.


Voters don't trust the Republicans on the issue at all and trust Obama and the Democrats far more.

  • By more than 2-to-1 (55 to 26 percent) respondents in the CBS/New York Times survey say Obama has better ideas about how to change health care than Republicans.
  • The new bipartisan GWU Battleground survey showed President Obama and Democrats in general with identical 21-point leads over Republicans on who would better handle health care reform.


Most important, when voters get more information about the likely elements of the final plan, they like it.

  • In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, when people are read a description of the plan that includes higher taxes on wealthier Americans, they favor it by a 56 to 38 percent margin. This level of support is steady from June and April.
  • In both the Time Magazine survey and the new Pew Research Center survey, strong majorities (in some cases up to 80 percent) support elements likely to be in the final plan such as an employer and individual mandate, the public option, insurance reform and an income surtax on wealthy Americans.
  • In a survey that Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted for NPR in conjunction with the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, a Democratic message in favor of reform beat a Republican message (written by POS), by a 51 to 42 percent margin.


The major difficulty for progressives, to this point, has been that it is hard to make the strongest positive case for reform because a unified bill has not emerged from Congress. Instead, all voters are hearing are stories about how much the plan will cost (on top of the stimulus, budget and bailouts), that it will be paid for with high taxes and that Democrats are bickering and divided. Meanwhile, the attacks on reform coming from Republicans and their allies are much simpler and easier for votes to digest, especially when Republicans can train their fire on unpopular specifics that will not likely be in the actual bill.

All of this suggests that when Democrats can finally coalesce around a single plan and Obama can go out and forcefully sell it, support is likely to increase significantly and Obama and supporters of reform will be able to get more traction in their arguments.

Andrew Baumann specializes in U.S. political issues with a particular focus on Greenberg Quinlan Rosner's work with Democracy Corps - a non-profit organization that provides opinion research and strategic advice to progressive organizations.

 
 
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03:22 PM on 08/02/2009
The Washington Post recently reported that conservative talk radio has sparked fear among senior citizens that the health-care bill moving through Congress will lead to end-of-life "rationing" and even "euthanasia.”

“I heard that Rush Limbaugh has already seen men in black suits enter retirement communities,” said Maggie Venue, an eighty year old widow who lives in Happy (Last) Days Village in Remount, Ohio. “Old people are already dying in there because of the government and nobody is doing anything about it.”

Emotions have been stirred up by constant chatter from right-leaning radio programs, religious e-mail lists and Internet blogs. The proposal has been described as "guiding you in how to die," "an ORDER from the Government to end your life," promoting "death care" and, in the words of antiabortion leader Randall Terry, an attempt to "kill Granny.”

Determined to seize the moment, Republicans have veered from their strategy of simply bitching, moaning and making crap up, and have apparently decided to weigh in on the controversy.

“We thought that this was a good time to come up with an actual policy statement,” said Michael Steele, Chairman of the Republican National Committee, with a big grin. “It’s our first!”

The Republican plan, according to Steele, would save “the old farts” and would focus on “euthanizing gays” and “anyone who believes President Obama was born in the United States.”

“Bitchin’ right?” said an obviously excited Steele.
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fausto412
12:17 PM on 07/31/2009
finally, an article that calms my nerves...

O has got this!
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RonK Michigan
Half of the people you know are below average
11:01 AM on 07/31/2009
Don't we have to start someplace????

I suggest that President Obama create an executive order that states" All government employees making over $100k per year will be moved into (their choice):
A - The co-op plan.
or
B - The public option.

If there is no healthcare bill - their provided healthcare will cease and they will be free to purchase any private plan they choose.

Dream - on catfish!!!!
08:22 AM on 07/31/2009
Of course we all support healthcare reform! That's no surprise, we don't need polls to tell us that! What we need is SOMEONE who knows what needs to be done to improve things.

The problem is, no one in congress seems to have any idea about how to change it for the better. We all need to become aware of what the HR Bill will do. I have read it and it has nothing to do with fixing any of our problems! The supporters of the bill make claims that it will reduce healthcare costs, provide more choice, require better care and create more competition for health insurance. The reality is, it will increase costs of both health insurance and taxes, it eliminates almost all healthcare choices, the mandated care is far less than what you can already get, and will reduce competition. If you read the bill and understand a little about healthcare, you will see that this bill is really a disaster waiting to happen!

If we are concerned about not getting specifics about HOW this bill will do what they claim, it's because there are none.

We need REAL reform, not some bill rushed through just for the sake of claiming a political victory. We should all demand specific answers on any reform and not except anything that doesn't provide real solutions.
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akindependent
01:16 PM on 08/16/2009
I cannot fathom how you can come to those conclusions from reading the house bill.
08:15 AM on 07/31/2009
Interesting how the media doesnt give us these specific details from the polls..they are only interested in bringing down our President
11:12 AM on 07/31/2009
Indeed.
08:10 AM on 07/31/2009
Great article. I've been telling people for weeks NOT to believe the media's take on polls.

The concern that people have, if they have any, is that somehow their situation will get worse. That their share of the healthcare/medical services pie will be reduced. The truth is that once people can get affordable, quality healthcare the entire nation benefits. Those with insurance won't be paying an extra $100+ a month to cover the uninsured. Yes, Pres. Bush, some may be treated at the emergency room but WE pay for it. Someone has to pick up the cost and for the last 20 years more and more of that cost has fallen on those with insurance. Nuts, but true.

I've seen a marked change in even my VERY GOP, Sarah Palin loving neighbors. As soon as a child, spouse or parent gets ill and the bill come rolling in the shock is enormous. The vast majority of people who say they are "satisified" with their health insurance have not had to use it for a major accident or illness. Once they do, it's a whole different story.

We must keep the pressure on. Don't let the media convince you that this war is lost. It isn't. We just have to keep pushing back, making it very clear that those who vote against healthcare reform or insist on provisions that continue to burden the middle class will be looking for a new job in 2010.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
CTtransplant
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we gro
12:20 AM on 07/31/2009
Look, I don't know if everyone else is as fed up as I am with the obstruction and political game-playing going on with this health care reform...but I DO know this - the Republican obstructionists and the Blue Dog Dems have absolutely NO clue what the rest of us are going through with healthcare. Maybe it's time they did!

If you agree, please sign the petition below, and forward it - any way you can - to anyone and everyone you know! Time to let them know how we feel!!!!

http://www.petitiononline.com/PubOp676/petition.html
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
swift goat pet for truth
The Life of the Land is preserved in Righteousness
12:14 AM on 07/31/2009
Support for healthcare is weak where it counts: The Insurance Companies who own the Reps and Senators..
09:23 PM on 07/30/2009
The Presidents inability to communicate on health care reform now is that his actions now are not consistent with what he led us to believe he would do when he was on the campaign trail.
If he would promote changes to serve people and businesses he will have the attentions of everyone.
True dual system public/private health care reform should provide:
1. Free care and medications for everyone using public care.
2. Businesses selecting public care for their employees could opt out of health care completely.
3. Savings of hundreds of billions of dollars each year from the $2.5trillion that is now being spent.
An independent private health care industry should be unfettered by government intervention so it could compete to attract every client they could who would find their services so compelling that patients would spend discretionary income to voluntarily purchase insurance, care, and medications from them.
Government needs to be the basic no frills provider of high quality health care.
Health care reform to better serve seniors on Medicare, individuals, and businesses while lowering all government mandated costs can only be accomplished by using governments “unfair competitive advantages”.
Paying for health care using sales tax revenues would be hundreds of billions of dollars cheaper each year than using private insurance and infinitely easier for everyone to manage.
Delivering all government funded health care through government owned hospitals and clinics, operated by government employed doctors and care providers, would add hundreds of billions of savings.
08:21 PM on 07/30/2009
I think this entire process is falling apart and Reid knows it . . .

CBS/NY Times Poll:
31% believe Congress' health care plan will help them
81% say a government plan for full coverage would lead to job cuts
69% say their quality would go down
73% say their access to care would go down
75% say their taxes will go up
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/07/29/politics/main5196340.shtml

NBC/Wall Street Journal:
36% say Obama's plan is a good idea
39 percent believe that Obama"s plan would result in the quality of their health care getting worse, a 15-point jump since April.
20% think their quality of their own care would improve under the Obama plan
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32206998/ns/politics-white_house/

Gallup:
26% say it would improve their personal medical care.
30% say it would reduce their personal health care costs, 34% say it would increase their costs.

How can you expect something to pass if the majorit believe the bill won't help them while raising their own costs and delivering less care?

Democrats can't sell something until they address issues and all I have see is broad "cost saving" rhetoric with no specifics.
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jmwtex
11:06 AM on 07/31/2009
Sad how stupid people are. They get what deserve. The idea that president, or anyone else, even has to sell this says more about the american people than anything else. It is just shocking how limited people's perspectives are in this country.