Somalia's president declared a state of emergency last weekend, a move that made me wonder, "What state?" And that's the real emergency.
The nation has been in the grips of an increasingly ugly civil war since 1991, when tribal forces -- backed by Ethiopia -- toppled President Siad Barre's totalitarian government. The resulting power vacuum unleashed a torrent of violence and self-proclaimed leaders. Since then, the United Nations and other international agents have worked to prop up a government -- any government -- in the hopes that a Somali state could regenerate itself.
The most recent battles began in 2006, when US-backed Ethiopian troops joined the Transitional Federal Government to fight Islamic insurgents, most of whom worked under the Islamic Court Union. Those efforts helped install President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, but, sadly, he's not doing so hot: his government retains only a small portion of the nation's capital, Mogadishu.
Meanwhile, the rest of the nation writhes under the so-called holy warriors of Al-Shabaab, who rose to prominence after the ICU fell. Not surprisingly, the group aims to erect an Islamic state - and they're doing a pretty good job expanding their reach: they announced this week that four thieves in Mogadishu will be punished with amputation, as dictated by Islamic law. Such punishments have been enacted throughout the country, but these thieves reside in Mogadishu, which is an indication of how little control the government has over the nation -- and the state.
Unfortunately for all parties, and the world, it's unlikely that either side -- Sharif's government or Al-Shabaab -- will reach their end goal. Neither is powerful enough to take over or maintain a viable state, for it's unlikely such a thing could even exist in Somalia.
The magazine Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace released their list of states at risk for failure and, for the second year in a row, Somalia ranks No. 1. The review puts this reality into perspective:
A recent report by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, drawing on captured al-Qaeda documents, revealed that Osama bin Laden's outfit had an awful experience trying to operate out of Somalia, for all the same reasons that international peacekeepers found Somalia unmanageable in the 1990s: terrible infrastructure, excessive violence and criminality, and few basic services, among other factors. In short, Somalia was too failed even for al-Qaeda.
But that doesn't mean al-Qaeda won't benefit from Somalia's sinking state. The New York Times reported last week that a number of al-Qaeda sympathizers have fled forces in Pakistan and are heading down to Yemen and Somalia. Also last week, suicide bombers with al-Qaeda allegiance killed 30 in Mogadishu, including Somalia's security minister and the city's chief of police.
Most analysts say it's unlikely al-Qaeda's central leadership will plot a move to Somalia - or, for that matter, Yemen - should Pakistan prove unsafe, but an influx of sympathizers from Somalia into Yemen, and vice versa, could help bolster Islamists fighting within those nations' borders.
Rogue fighters may not sound like a serious international issue, but a number of analysts and officials note that Somalia's sorry state of affairs resembles those of Afghanistan in the years of the Taliban's rise.
From the New York Times piece: "Somalia is now a failed state that bears some resemblance to Afghanistan before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, while Yemen's weak government is ineffectually trying to combat the militants, American officials say." That same article passes on word that Pentagon officials have noticed increased communication between fighters in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. If the groups start to collaborate closely -- a move that would have its own tensions, not least of all cultural -- the violence could spill over into neighboring Kenya. Or beyond.
At worst, Somalia would prove a fertile ground for nefarious plots, a bevy of ready-and-willing fighters looking to spread their ill will. The United States State Department noted as much in an May 2009 report on international terrorism:
In 2008, East Africa Al-Qaeda operative Saleh Al-Nabhan distributed a video showing training camp activity in Somalia and inviting foreigners to travel there for training. A small number of senior Al-Qaeda operatives have worked closely with Al-Shabaab leaders in Somalia, where they enjoy safe haven. We have credible reports of foreigners fighting with al-Shabaab.
The establishment of training camps -- and a potential terrorist tag-team -- could threaten western interests around the world.
Islamic fighters, of course, are not the only force dragging down the nation's state and exasperating its emergency. Dozens -- perhaps hundreds -- of young Somali men are becoming pirates, hijacking foreign ships and making a tidy profit in the meantime. Some estimate the crews garnered more than $80 million last year alone, far more than the estimated $600 per capita GDP. So, Somali nationals are given two alluring choices: join the Islamists' fight or head to the high seas. There's no state to either welcome them or be aligned with: Somalis are living in the state of purgatory -- and no emergency declaration can save them.
So, what are the options? The international community pledged $250 million earlier this year to help build - or support - Somalia's internal security. A vast amount of that money, $134 million, will go to the African Union. That group, however, cannot engage in armed combat, but can only secure areas and protect governmental officials. Neighboring Kenya says it won't send forces into the nation, largely because the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development - of which both Somalia and Kenya are members - prohibits member nations from interfering with neighboring nations' internal affairs. The rest of the aid would go toward growing and training the nation's security and police forces.
Unfortunately, as Sharif's announcement makes clear, there's little space for such forces to train. And, sadly, as the struggle continues, more and more Somali citizens - especially the estimated 1.3 million who have been internally displaced - will continue to live in a state of despair. While there's no easy answer to the Somalia conundrum, it's one to which the world's stable states - and everyone else - should turn their attentions, because what happens there will no doubt have international ramifications.