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Andrew Winston

Andrew Winston

Posted April 27, 2009 | 10:55 AM (EST)

Is Bjorn Lomborg Dangerous or Helpful?


This weekend, the New York Times gave Bjorn Lomborg -- the self-proclaimed "skeptical environmentalist" -- more air time. Lomborg wrote an op-ed that railed against those who want to cut greenhouse gas emissions dramatically. He offered his opinion on a better solution: "make low-carbon alternatives like solar and wind energy competitive with old carbon sources."

As usual, Lomborg sets up a false straw-man to knock down. He says "we are often told that...we must cut emissions immediately and drastically." Then he worries that people just don't get that we actually need to make renewables cheaper. Really? So none of the major environmental NGOs, or country delegations to global climate negotiations, have thought of that? So to tackle obesity we shouldn't just talk about weight, but also about exercising more and eating right? So insightful...

Lomborg has a long habit of tilting at windmills that he mostly imagines. His most famous argument is that we shouldn't prioritize climate change over other pressing social priorities like poverty alleviation -- as if they're all separate. The poorest people in the world are energy poor and don't have access to clean water -- the two biggest environmental challenges of our time. He's always setting up false tradeoffs to establish his more "reaonsable" middleground.

I will say that one overarching aspect of his arguments is important. Of course we should constantly ask ourselves, "What's the cheapest way to solve that problem, and where should we allocate scarce resources?" He's always pushing for that discussion. But as we've seen time and again, whenever a group -- usually a particular industry most affected by a change -- says it will be too expensive to solve an environmental challenge, it ends up being much cheaper. We innovate, get smarter, get leaner, and move away from what's ailing us.

To me, Lomborg's arguments seem couched in a way to just maximize attention, not for the ideas themselves, but for Lomborg. And I'm guilty of spilling ink on him now. Climate change deniers use his work to say, wait, let's not rush into anything (which makes me ask, you mean rushing into things that might save us money, keep cash and jobs here instead of sending them to parts of the world that hate us, and improve our health -- you mean those things?).

Lomborg's arguments are more subtle than he usually gets credit for. Probably 75% of what he says is dead on -- but that's what makes him so dangerous. It's the other 25% that gets us in trouble.

I welcome your thoughts on his role...

Andrew Winston helps companies use environmental thinking to grow and prosper. He is author of the upcoming Green Recovery -- a special preview is available free here. He is also co-author of the best-seller Green to Gold,

This weekend, the New York Times gave Bjorn Lomborg -- the self-proclaimed "skeptical environmentalist" -- more air time. Lomborg wrote an op-ed that railed against those who want to cut greenhouse g...
This weekend, the New York Times gave Bjorn Lomborg -- the self-proclaimed "skeptical environmentalist" -- more air time. Lomborg wrote an op-ed that railed against those who want to cut greenhouse g...
 
 
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08:08 PM on 05/06/2009
I think he brings an important viewpoint to the discussion about how to deal with global warming. We are embarking on some major structural changes to our economy and it is wise to consider the possible consequences and alternatives.....lest we have more debacles like the ethanol mandate.

No country can "do everything", any more than a person can, so his advice to choose wisely is welcomed. We have far too many examples of having "jumped the gun" with terrible results: ethanol, as mentioned, but also palm-oil diesel, MBTE, the first round of wind energy in the 80's, maybe CFL bulbs, etc. Some were just a waste of resources, others actually did harm.
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02:27 PM on 04/29/2009
Hey great, Prawn. How long until these super trees are in place doing their job?. Why didn't he start them years ago? Maybe he can build us a nice perpetual motion machine . That would really be usefull.
IF we are facing an industry or ememy that is destroying our future, AND they are " just too big to fail"
Then we need to at least slow them down. And let the hot air out of them slowely.
Tax the polluters, they will pass it on to their customers.
The customers can now make an informed choice. Oil and Coal with/tax cost ....This Much$$$ . Wind , Solar, and (Name the new tech) cost ....this much$$$
Then the customer can choose ,based on not only the cost of manufacturing, profit. shipping, but also with the cost of clean up, invironmental damage factored in.
And the customer faced with these choices may choose also to conserve.
Hey this is all win win.
10:15 AM on 04/29/2009
I agree with topgunna...develop green energy technologies without imposing a carbon tax because that creates an artificial playing field...no real competition between fossil fuels and green alternatives can take place. For all the enviros who will now bleat about the huge subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels and nuclear...you have a point but the problem is that the petroleum, coal and nuclear infrastructure is already in place so removing their subsidies will cause great economic pain...if it were possible to go back in time and prevent those subsidies from being put in place at the start, and encourage green entrepreneurs at that time, then we could have had a genuine competition between fossil and green on a level playing field...but fossil fuels would have won back then because they are more energy dense, return a bigger profit per unit of investment, and a free market would have flocked to them even without subsidies. And the externalities, the pollution costs, could not have been factored in 100 years ago, because there was no way to know how huge those external costs would have grown by now. Today, to deal with CO2, the best sounding solution is by Freeman Dyson, the renowned physicist..he recommends developing genetically-engineered super-carbon uptake trees and planting them massively around the world to soak up the carbon we can't help emitting.
10:03 PM on 04/28/2009
I too was suspicious of Lomborg's rhetoric. My take: http://greenresearch.wordpress.com/2009/04/27/wierd-consensus-on-global-warming-emerging/
06:18 PM on 04/28/2009
Neither. He is noise.

He is a liar and self-publicist (lied about being an environmentalist, lied about being a member of Greenpeace etc we know that he's a self-publicist from the fact that we know his name and yet he is clearly not actually an expert in anything he is talking about).

I do like the fact that he is raising "other" global issues in his continuing quest to have global warming sidelined. He has been driven from every previous position he has held by the facts. And today any 9 year old can see that his current objection is ridiculous because you don't have to choose between which problems to solve. BUT he has opened up the idea that we SHOULD be solving common global problems. So thanks for that, now is there any reason we should listen to him?

His economic arguments are so clearly starting with the answer (enviros are wrong, and for Bjorn's constantly vague and shifting reasons) that what he says doesn't even pass a sniff test.

So, no. Noise.

Sebb
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11:52 PM on 04/27/2009
Bjorn Lomborg makes me ill. The only way to "compute" that solar panels all around are "more expensive" than our current mix of coal, nuclear, hydroelectric and various liquid and gaseous petroleum products, is to take the perspective of Exxon-Mobil, Bechtel, et. al. and compare only the up-front installation costs of clean energy but omit their _drastically_ lower "long-term" maintenance costs, which nevertheless make them cheaper to the owner/operator within 10 years. That's first-order economic cost only, meaning _before_ counting environmental impact. The only reason we continue to burn chemicals, dam rivers and split atoms to light and heat our homes and move our vehicles is corporate lobbying.
09:03 PM on 04/27/2009
Lomborg is at best "not helpful" and at worst dangerous. Dangerous because he will be viewed as an "expert" by those that see value in business as usual.

What is his argument? We should spend money on other global issues and continue to burn fossil fuels?

This is pure grandstanding. We no longer have time to indulge in theatrics.
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jsehgal
Micro-bio? There is too much to say!
07:00 PM on 04/27/2009
People like Bjorn Lomborg get away with what they say because they fail in their calculations to account for the true cost of a resource and true cost of clean up after they are done with creating the junk. Ask them if they know What the cost of oxygen is what are the consequence of depleting it. What is the cost of having too much carbon di oxide in the atmoshphere? What is the cost of polluted water? What is the budget to restore our supplies to the original state? SO the cost of an internal combustion engine based car is far more than is actually realised. We ignore the cost of pollution in various ways e'g there is no accounting of the loss of oxygen, increase of CO2, increase of air pollutants, increase of asphalted land, increase of junked materials. In addition, we subsidise the roadways, we subsidise the oil extraction industry with the most sophisticated army the planet has ever seen. If these costs were to be put on to the oil and car companies (who would then pass it on to us) we will see a marked change in consumer behaviour. It is this dishonesty (of hidden costs borne through state taxes) that sustains the arguments of the Bjorn Lomborgs of this world. On a final note, ask him if he will bear cost replacing extinct species. As it is every species except humans are paying for our way of life.
08:49 PM on 04/27/2009
When someone says "true cost" - in contrast to plain "cost" - they do not know what they are talking about.

What is the cost of a life? Well, the speed limit should be set at 1 mile per hour. No accident-related death. But then ambulances move so slow that people die of heart attack before reaching the hospital. Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

Some are naive to think that Nature is pristine. Nature is dirty, brutal and brutish.

Bjorn Lomborg has the correct idea. Given the resources you have, how best to use it. The "best" is determined by the population at large since each segment have different problems/needs and at different degree.

Example: what to do about Mississippi floods? In some cases, rebuild the levees. In others, move the towns to higher ground. More and more, the US army corps of Engineers is choosing the latter solution.
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01:06 PM on 04/29/2009
No! Nature is not dirty, brutal and brutish. Using these words simply are applying human characteristics to something we fear, and do not fully understand. It is looking for order and promise in chaos and failing we call it names.
The rain that waters my garden, also washes the man's home away down in the valley.
Nature was neither benevolent or angry.
I think what Bjorn is saying is that since we are intent on spending money to correct something he doesn't want to correct. He now wants to block this by suggesting we spend money on something else instead that we were not going to spent money on anyway.

20 of us are in a lifeboat, and we find a hole in the bottem, It is sinking. It can be patched. There are also bones to set, diapers to change, people to feed, questions to answer, radios to fix..
What do you think we should tend to first.
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01:22 PM on 04/29/2009
Your question about the Mississippi River flooding. The answer is not to have build citys on the banks of rivers that have been flooding forever.
And if you do build make sure no one CLEARCUTS all the forest and fills all the marshes with farmland , subdivisions, and parking lots upstream, so that the water pours directly into the river causing even bigger floods.
03:31 PM on 04/27/2009
I agree that Bjorn's arguments are more subtle than he gets credit for, but I would continue to say that he is closer to 100% than you credit him with. Your comments on his arguments were fairly superficial, you provided not a single fact and simply threw out, "...you mean rushing into things that might save us money, keep cash and jobs here instead of sending them to parts of the world that hate us, and improve our health -- you mean those things?)." as if it were a fait accompli.

Many items tied to The Fight on Climate Change are huge waste of money and resources by any length of the stick - carbon sequestration, ethanol, etc. But one thing is clear, the best way to improve the world is to improve the people who impact it - hence Lomborg's argument for medical innovation, poverty alleviation and prioritizing education.
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12:53 AM on 04/28/2009
Carbon sequestration is the coal industry's stupid idea, and ethanol is Archer Daniels Midland's. Real environmentalists (not the corporatists featured in gadget-tv and gadget-magazine fluff pieces) know that wind and solar collectors are the only clean energy technologies, and all vehicles should be 100% electric, like the Cooper Mini-e. The performance is better than any Ferrari, or anything else petroleum-powered.

http://www.acpropulsion.com/company/press-releases.php
"AC Propulsion is the owner of 6 issued patents on EV technology, which have been licensed to other companies, including Tesla Motors. Some of this technology was originally developed by AC Propulsion for its tzero™ electric sports car which achieved 0-60 mph acceleration in 3.6 seconds and 300 mile range while driving 60 mph."
03:19 PM on 04/27/2009
I think Lomborg is stressing the need to "actually" reduce the costs of alternatives. This is different from imposing hefty taxes on carbon-based fuels to make alternatives SEEM cheaper. Alternative energies need to drive costs down, not simply have taxes imposed on the competition.

As for not rushing in to things: Supposedly, atmospheric levels of CO2 are the major concern (which may or may not be true, but for argument's sake). If that is the case, then cutting the rate of emissions doesn't solve the problem. It merely slows the rate at which the problem is exacerbated. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will continue to climb as a result of human influence - they just might not reach the imaginary "tipping point" as quickly.

I think that's the essence of Lomborg's argument. "Greening" the economy with the current state-of-the-art is an expensive"feel-good" measure that doesn't solve the problem it targets.