iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Andy Ostroy

Andy Ostroy

GET UPDATES FROM Andy Ostroy

Leaving Obama

Posted: 04/ 4/11 11:24 AM ET


If Michelle Manning's frustration and disappointment is any indication of what's in store for President Barack Obama in 2012, he may be in very serious trouble. Obama, who made his reelection bid official in a video message released Monday morning, is struggling to retain his most loyal supporters. And Michelle was one of his fiercest devotees.

Back in 2008, a very pregnant Michelle, who's little brother was fighting in Iraq, protested the war and rallied hard for Obama. She took part in out-of-state get-out-the-vote campaigns. She produced the above video at her own $8,000 expense. And she sent the maximum contribution allowed by law. She was one of those people who were ridiculed as Obamacons. She took the Kool-Aid pitcher right up to her face and guzzled until she was drunk on "Change We Can Believe In." No doubt about it, Michelle was hard-core.

And then something happened after the election. There was change, alright, but not the kind that Michelle, and millions like her, expected. The president they loved and fought for was letting them down. He hadn't ended the war, as promised. He escalated the war in Afghanistan. Dropped health care reform's public option. Didn't support gay marriage. Took forever to repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell. Folded like a $2 lawn chair on repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. They grew angrier as he seemed to care more about placating Republicans than the die-hard progressives who put him in office. And now they're upset that he's gotten the United States embroiled in a third war, in Libya. For the Obamacons, this is not how "Hope" was supposed to look.

Michelle explains why she can no longer support and accept the inevitability of a second Obama term:

I can't anymore. I worked too hard for him. I gave too much. I stood out in the freezing rain on Super Tuesday in Union Square holding a sign seven months pregnant begging for votes all day. I knocked on doors in Pennsylvania for two days begging for votes while I was nursing my new newborn baby, taking breaks to pump milk with a portable breast pump and a cooler in my car every three hours. I was a maxed out donor. I made two videos I put up on YouTube at my own production expense. He owes me. He needs to at least keep his promises, and he hasn't. I haven't wanted to say anything so as not to betray my party, but I am an American first, and a Democrat second, and keeping my mouth shut is wrong. We need another option in 2012. I'm afraid Mr. Obama is a one term president, and the sooner we recognize that and start working on Plan B, the better off we will be when the time comes. Pretending he's doing a good job isn't helping anyone, and I'm afraid the "give him time" grace period is over. It's reelection time already. I want another option.

To be sure, defections like Michelle's could be devastating to Obama's reelection bid. His approval rating continues to be stuck in the low-mid 40's, if you believe recent polls like Gallup. And half of those surveyed don't want him reelected. Yet his advisers say that time is on his side. That the economy will improve enough to win over a majority of voters. That may be true. But the opposite may be true as well. Unemployment remains unacceptably high near 9%, and about 14-million Americans are still searching for work. The budget deficit is at a record high, and the economy, while recovering, isn't recovering fast enough. The military engagements in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya won't help him either. People are fed up. They're dissatisfied with the political system and the politicians who've failed them. The Michelles of the party gave their heart to a new lover. Someone who promised an entirely new kind of relationship. They put their trust and faith in Obama, and there's no mistaking that he broke those hearts.

Democrats should be scared. They should start praying that someone like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie doesn't enter the race. He 's wildly popular among moderates and independents, and many believe he'd trounce Obama. And while all eyes seem focused on human Ambien pills like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, don't be surprised to see a dark horse like Sen. Scott Brown (MA) toss his truck into the ring. He'd be quite the formidable opponent for Obama. Considering the aggressive, calculating and often ruthless campaign tactics of the GOP, 2012, for all of the reasons stated above, could be a truly horrible year for Obama.

Given this fertile landscape, would someone like Hillary Clinton recognize this reality, and opportunity, and run against her boss? One thing's for sure: Michelle Manning would drop Obama and throw her mighty weight around the Secretary of State in a nanosecond. And so would millions of others. Considering that Clinton actually won the popular vote in the 2008 Democrat primaries, is this such a far-fetched scenario? The conventional wisdom places Hillary atop the 2016 Democratic ticket. But, if Obama were to lose next year, her chances of toppling a potentially popular Republican incumbent in 2016, especially given a very likely, and strong, economic recovery these next few years, would be extremely diminished. As politically incorrect as it may seem, going head-to-head against Obama in 2012 may just be the strategically better bet for her.t

 

Follow Andy Ostroy on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AndyOstroy

 
 
  • Comments
  • 565
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Highlights
Bloggers
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3 4 5  Next ›  Last »  (9 total)
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gigi Jacobs
Devloper, small business owner, although recent st
06:05 AM on 04/16/2011
Obama has let the american People down. He's a slick con artist who minces his words to walk on the fence and i would not trust him further that i can throw him.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
04:54 PM on 04/09/2011
FAUX-Democrats are at full boil on this topic.

LOL
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
02:41 PM on 04/09/2011
Really? Hillary's our only other option?
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gigi Jacobs
Devloper, small business owner, although recent st
06:07 AM on 04/16/2011
Try Alan Grayson of Flordia and Senator Weiner and Bernie Sanders.
10:46 AM on 04/08/2011
i am disappointed in Obama. He has shown little ability to lead he has given into too many times to the republicans. the heatlh care bill was a disaster granted it was the best he could get what but the fact is that he showed he could deliver the democratic vote. he is i am afraid a failure at being president. i still respect him but i no longer want him to be my president or the democratic candidate. we need a fighter we need some one who can deliver some like grayson. Please President Obama recognize that you do not have what it takes to be president, you have a lot to offer in public service but is not as president. i beg you to be the great man i think you are and recognize your weaknesses and your strengths. please do not run again and please help pick a strong democratic candidate for 2012. you will loose and the country will pay for it
01:07 PM on 04/08/2011
President Obama has announced he is running in 2012 which is no surprise. Most Presidents run for two terms, even the unpopular ones and many people still say they like Obama as a person even if they don't agree with his leadership. He's betting that a.) he can turn people's thinking around about his leadership and b.) the Republicans won't be able to find a candidate popular enough with the whole country to beat him. I'm betting on b. Our President is intelligent, personable, and doesn't get his feathers ruffled easily. He's better than those who will most likely run against him but he does act more like a Republican of old than a Democrat.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gigi Jacobs
Devloper, small business owner, although recent st
06:08 AM on 04/16/2011
No get him out and have Grayson run for office. This is a man with courage who's not a peole pleaser. And I've spoken to him in person and he's just as sincere.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
GrumpyGrandpa
A '60's liberal who didn't sell out
10:23 AM on 04/05/2011
I thought, back in 2008, that I would never feel the same as Michelle does. I do now. After scrounging together several $25.00 donations out of my measly Social Security check as best I could and phone banking because I can't walk or drive very well to go door-to-door, I feel so betrayed that unless someone is successful in winning a primary against President Obama, I will vote Green. And I don't want to hear any preaching about "throwing away my vote." I am so discouraged that I believe that voting for a second term for President Obama would be "throwing away my vote." I'm not sure what the President can do to win me back at this point, but I do know that there are a lot of liberals who feel the same as I do. And they will either not vote or will vote for a Green Party or some other small party candidate rather than compounding the betrayal.
I hope the President makes the effort to bring the liberal wing back into the party. When Rahm Emmanuel called us 'dirty f*****g hippies' and 'f*****g crazy' and Robert Gibbs called us 'The Professional Left', the President's refusal to ask for their resignations immediately or even an apology spoke volumes. Please make the effort Mr. President. I still want to believe.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
INVet
Truth has a liberal bias
08:52 AM on 04/05/2011
Elect a Republican and get ready for issues that are occuring in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and Maine to be replicated at a national level. This crop of Republicans make GW Bush look smart and sane.

Elections do matter and Obama, while not the liberal we want, is better than any of the Republican alternatives.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jharris344
Go Republican!! Go Broke!!
10:25 AM on 04/05/2011
Agree with the first part, disagree with the second part. A second term Obama is just what this country needs. Add in a democratic Congress and we'll be put back on track.
12:00 PM on 04/05/2011
The Republican Party has not put forth one single candidate that could win in a general election. Most Americans are moderates, not to far right or left, and what sounds good at a party rally of the most faithful doesn't fly everywhere else. I don't think President Obama is a typical Democrat but then again these whacky new generation Republicans don't remind me much of people like Eisenhower either. President Obama, stay home, focus on the economy and the budget. Get us out of Libya, at the very least. Three military interventions in three different countries is not acceptable.
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
07:20 AM on 04/05/2011
One, JUST ONE, "final straw" for me:

AS you talk about, and THINK about the whole concept of whether or not Obama deserves a second term, THINK about ...

...the CONCEPT of "indefinit­e detention.­" Just where in the hell does this president even get the _idea_ of incarcerat­ing someone for potentiall­y their whole lives _without_ the exceptiona­lly American ideal of even being _charged_ with a crime, much less an actual TRIAL. EXCUSE ME?!?!?! NO, SIR, this is NOT an American idea, it's Completely Foreign to me. FAR TOO MANY slogh it off as if it hasn't even happened. OH NO, we DO NOT incarcerat­e people for NO GOOD REASON in America! _Yeah,_ Right.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jharris344
Go Republican!! Go Broke!!
10:34 AM on 04/05/2011
Really? I thought this was your final straw:

"The CIA, the Libyan Rebellion, and the President
Commented Apr 2, 2011 at 13:00:40 in Politics
“I wish I had read this two days ago, but I just discovered it - via an email I just received from hp, by the way!

Well, I'm glad to know, but what horrible knowledge this is. I haven't read the Mark Mazzetti and Eric Schmitt piece yet, but I'm confident enough in Bromwich that he didn't lie about what they said.

Well, this is certainly the very, very, VERY last straw: Now I must affirm; I will NOT vote for this man for president again, nomatter WHAT it means. He has shown himself to be not very much better than Bush III. IF WE REWARD "almost as bad" we will NEVER get a _good_ president.”"
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
12:35 PM on 04/05/2011
Yes, I guess I'm still in great frustration / disbelief and articulating it a few times seems to help me feel a little better....
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
06:51 AM on 04/05/2011
How do I vote to support Michelle?

OH, that's right, I DON'T vote for Obama!

Got It.

In Fact, she's right. What True Democrat can look at this man and say he's a Real Democrat? Oh, I'll grant you that he's the most left of all the Republicans out there, but _really_ he _is_ a Republican.
05:22 AM on 04/05/2011
yes i voted for Obama but have been very disappointed in him. I seriously wish we had another choice and i do not consider any of the republicans as a choice. I do believe that Obama is a very smart man but he is not a leader, he does not have the fire to stand and take criticism instead he tries to compromise and goes out of his way to please the republicans. Now compromise is good and it is how many changes are accomplished and how things progress but you have to quit trying to compromise with some one who has expressed over and over again that he is not interested. Obama has lost all creditability the republicans do not fear him and recognize that he is the next best thing to having a republican in the white house. Obama has two years to show me that he has a back bone that he can stand up to the republicans that he is proud to be a liberal and that he is willing to take a stand.
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
06:57 AM on 04/05/2011
Too late.
photo
ewldest
I don't care "whose" war it is - end it now
12:40 AM on 04/05/2011
I don't buy the 'Clinton next time' implications of the article if she had been elected, we would have seen no difference. And for that reason alone, it is doubtful she will run.
On all other counts, I agree.
Obama can save himself by ending the colonial wars and retrenching on the economy - but these moves are doubtful.
I will certainly vote a progressive in the primaries - and Obama ain't that.
12:12 PM on 04/05/2011
Hillary Clinton is not going to run in 2012. Many people who backed her in the last election wish she would, I think, but she has already said, she is retiring from politics in 2012. She is in her 60's, and probably wants to take her life in a different direction, at this point.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Malcolm Hensley
Last of the Reagan Republicans
12:05 AM on 04/05/2011
President Obama could tackle an environmentalist/civil rights issue. Free Trade! As President he has the bully pulpit and doesn't need as much Wall Street money!

Imagine President Obama debating his Wall Street financed opponents and asking them the question, "Do you really think on trade issues John C. Calhoun the slave owning/plantation owning Senator was right and Senator Daniel Webster after almost 170 years of proof was wrong?" During which time the U.S. became the strongest nation on the planet!

Why give up the gains we have made with the formation of the EPA and OSHA. Why buy products from nations that exploit their workers to make a little cheaper products. Why buy products from nations poisoning our atmosphere and oceans to make us a little cheaper product.

What do we gain in terms of climate change to move production off shore?

We need to continue our social and environmental advances not export our problems to import cheaper products.

Let's start with adding an environmental impact tax or tariff on all products sold here based on the manufacturing, transportation, and sustainability!

This is a populist campaign that can over come Wall Street money!

Remember the money maybe on Wall Street but the votes are walking Main Street and even today after the elections they count the votes not the money!
12:18 AM on 04/05/2011
Great observations or your expression there of
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
06:59 AM on 04/05/2011
Obama had his chance to face the Wall Street crowd when it mattered and didn't.

Sorry, too late. If he can't be there for us when it matters, when policy is written, he's a loser. That's just the facts.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jharris344
Go Republican!! Go Broke!!
10:35 AM on 04/05/2011
You are sooo right. Sorry that you spent so much time in DC countering the tea bagger protests!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kamact
Market Observer
10:31 PM on 04/04/2011
Based on his actions, Obama has earned the right to run on the GOP ticket in 2012,...I would like the option of voting for a real progressive capitalist, who will represent the larger public's interests
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
06:59 AM on 04/05/2011
Yup, me too.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
06:25 PM on 04/05/2011
Me, too--just don't expect to find one in the Democratic Party.
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
10:20 PM on 04/05/2011
But that's where we need to find one / them.

The Main Stream Media will _never_ give publicity to any other parties than the Rs and Ds. And they can't really NOT give publicity to the Rs and Ds, so so-called third parties aren't going to make it in today's climate. What we need to do is take over the D party in a similar (but more long-lasting) manner as the Religious Right did to the Rs in the time of Reagan. This is the ONLY way we can really do it, unfortunately.

But there ARE some good Ds out there - Dean, Weiner, Feingold, Warren, Kucinich, etc.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Elijah A Alexander Jr
Elijah NatureBoy
09:44 PM on 04/04/2011
The option is found in Amendment 12 where each state chooses a minimum of 3 president and vice candidates, on separate ticket and independent of parties then certify them to head of the Senate for verifying the states' votes. Congress then notify the entire nation of the possible 50 presidents and 50 vices with their credentials for primaries, without parties, campaigning or conventions, and the people vote November's general election.

After the people vote on presidents and vices each congressional district chooses and elect electors (Amendment 24) who will vote according to their district's majority vote. That's how the constitution planned presidential elections without super electors, the people must vote on them all.

For congressman of both houses the people chooses from their districts no less than three people who will allow their constituent to dictate their every vote on every bill. Each bill will be voted on without any other bills riding it. The people will be allowed to read every bill and budget proposal to give their OK or rejection. That's the intent of the Constitution's reading as amended.

Using http://www.change.org/petitions/eliminate-capitalistic-military-regime we are able to do it now.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
08:45 PM on 04/04/2011
Not a fan of the GOP but Democrats could definately do better than President Obama. He has been somewhat of a disappointment as far as I am concerned. Most troubling is his lack of leadership skills and an appearance, whether true or not, of a woeful lack of effort.

Mediocracy is not something to be proud of nor approved of. When you are elected President you are expected to make things happen, might be good or bad, but you make it happen nonetheless.


Sure, President Obama has had it tough. That comes with the turf. If you are in the game then you are in the game to win it, not just to say I played. Good leaders find ways to overcome. That said I will vote for whoever appears to be the best out of the choices we end up with. The wealthy owners of our government will really be the ones to chose their next employee anyway.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
rtx47
08:06 PM on 04/04/2011
Looking at proposal(s) and comments, its disappointingly clear that some confuse being progressive with socialism. Being progressive is coming-up with ideas to make our system efficient and productive using current technology and thinking. Important component of being productive is eliminating (and not rewarding) waste and inefficiency.

In America there is much waste and over-consumption. We are reflexly conditioned to consume things not good for us - like over-eating, over-drinking and over-entertained with expensive toys. Many of us cannot afford these things but that's solved by (multiple) credit cards. Over-spending is encouraged by corporate-interests that benefit from these bad habits; which are manipulated with slick marketing.

While 40% are over-weight, consumption of sugar-loaded soft drinks and prepared foods saturated in transfats is chic. Tax on these items to discourage consumption is presented as burden on the poor.

Similarly with 50% school drop-out (70% in inner cites), providing our children with distracting gadgets are top priorities of many parents; under the guise of psychologically impacting them by depriving them of what most "cool" kids have - wear, consume, possess.

Thanks to Obamacare, we are already seeing significant savings in healthcare. Insurance carriers are reporting huge profits. It's time these insurance companies pass those savings to consumers in the form of reduced premiums. What are the state health and insurance commissioners doing? Citizens should contact their state representatives and governor seeking action.

There is much we can do, instead of expecting it all from Washington.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Doug Watt
Not ready for 2012
01:36 AM on 04/05/2011
rtx47, I checked the national high school dropout numbers and as of 2008 the percentage of dropouts was 8%, down from 14% in 1980:

http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=16
RTIII
Poster of over 0.0135% of all HufPost comments
07:06 AM on 04/05/2011
"There is much we can do, instead of expecting it all from Washington­."

Of all the things you said (or tried to say) this is theone sentence that stands out.

Yup, and the most important thing we can do is NOT vote in the dolts who got and keep us where we are now, and, sadly, that includes Obama.