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Andy Stern

Andy Stern

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The Third Economic Revolution -- Boom or Bust for America?

Posted: 02/ 2/11 08:53 AM ET

Last Thursday the leaders of the Senate, in contrast to President Obama's State of the Union speech, reached an agreement on rule changes which shows again that they may be able historians, but they fail miserably as futurists and leaders of change.

Sadly, this is simply the latest in a series of American leaders failing to choose to change and maybe make history, preferring to stick to the status quo and threatening to turn American competitiveness into ancient history.

In 2005, I wrote about the need for change at this moment of economic inflection in my book, A Country That Works--Getting America Back on Track. I was reminded during President Obama's State of the Union address how many of my own observations about the future were embodied in his speech.

My book's premise was simple -- our country, joined by the rest of the world, is living through the most profound, the most significant, and the most transformative economic revolution in the history of the world.

And where the first economic revolution -- the agricultural revolution -- took 3,000 years, and the industrial revolution 300 years, this third economic revolution will take only 30 years. As the President reminded us, "In a single generation revolutions in technology have transformed the way we live, work, and do business."

I wrote in 2005 "...that America cannot confront the challenges we're facing with constituency groups operating in separate silos or like-minded individuals failing to combine their voices. Our country's failure to break loose from conventional wisdom and embrace the future is the biggest threat we face", or as the President said, "The future is ours to win."

I even called out my own Sputnik moment, "In 1957, Americans were shocked to discover that the Soviet Union had successfully launched the world's first satellite into space...Our country responded to the news with a patriotic effort to join the Soviets in space by launching Explorer I and creating NASA."

My prediction then was that the 2008 Olympics in Beijing would be another "Sputnik" moment for Americans, when they see the striking evidence of China's economic might. America would have the chance to respond to China with a plan as quickly and effectively as we did to Sputnik. This would be the signature test for our generation, and a history making moment for our children's future.

Now 5 years later in an ever increasing global economy, and two years after the Beijing Olympics, with workers having endured both a jobless decade and 3 decades of virtually no wage growth, capped off by an economic collapse -- America still has no plan to keep the American Dream alive or compete globally in the face of this third economic revolution. Our Sputnik moment lacks the energy and political cohesion for lift off while China keeps rolling along.

New Congressmen pay homage to the market, as their economic cure-all, despite clear and convincing evidence to the contrary. Our employer based health care and pensions systems, by putting the cost of benefits on the price of our products, is a drag on American competitiveness, but politicians seem more comfortable designating "Obamacare" as the real root of all evil.

Our competitors' VAT taxes allow them to tax our exports while we let their imports into our country tax-free.

While China promotes unions to raise wages, many US elected officials and leaders in our business community want them to disappear. Our health care system costs 2-7% more of GDP than our competitors, but we continue to brag that it is the best in the world, and, given the extreme cost differential, it better be.

And now the middle class jobs in legal and pharmaceutical research, and medical care, to name a few, are being shipped overseas in a trading system were America obeys the rules and China and others flout them. White collar parents who played by the rules and made sure their children had a college degree are asking this century the same question that was dismissively cast aside when raised by blue collar parents' last century -- where are my kids going to find a job?

President Obama's recent State of the Union address, coupled with his 2008 campaign message and his New Foundation speech in April 2009 at Georgetown, my current institution, establish his futurist credentials, and his recognition that this is no longer our father's or grandfather's economy.

Yet, most of the political class in Washington thinks we can drive into the future looking in the rearview mirror.

Today, Americans are embroiled in a very different revolution than the one our forefathers were engaged in fighting for liberty in 1776. But the truth is that this revolution, the third economic one, is the defining contemporary moment for our nation's greatness.

Team USA needs a 21st century future oriented plan to make this truly-A Country that Works- for everyone, and where the dreams of our children still can come true.

Our future is not a matter of chance, but a matter of choice. And it is time to decide!

 

Follow Andy Stern on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AndyStern_DC

 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
bllnsinchnge
peace, markets, freedom
01:10 PM on 02/03/2011
Our competitors' VAT taxes allow them to tax our exports while we let their imports into our country tax-free.
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You are closing in on the issue. Tax policy can promote or prohibit trade. But the USA has a far bigger tax levied on homemade products, the minimum wage.
As nations evolve, grow and become more educated, we also become more diverse and efficient through inventions, tools and the availability of information.
So why does the government get larger? Consuming more of production through regulations and ever rising taxes which now total over $3.5 Trillion per year, 7 times the amount of 1980. We are spending almost 1.5 times the 1980 federal budget on todays military alone.
Capital and savings have to be available for entrepreneurs to design the future of our lives. When government is consuming, those funds cannot improve life, they only sustain it at an incredible cost.
11:01 AM on 02/03/2011
Your article illustrates your misunderstanding of the technological revolution in the same way that you misunderstand the fundamentals of economics. The most significant aspects of the technological revolution is that it decentralized information sharing, allowing more people to engage independently through the use of technology. Centralization of information, whether political or apolitical, is a relic of the past. However, organization like the SEIU continue to advocate for such a model...in direct contrast with what is an inevitable tide of technological decentralization. This is the same reason why your preferred economic model will always fail. Markets are driven by billions of independent marginal decisions made every day by individuals engaging in commerce. Your attemtps to centralize and centrally plan these decisions, in the same way that you advocate for the centralization of information, are doomed to failure. Your own quote illustrates this ignorance...

""...that America cannot confront the challenges we're facing with constituency groups operating in separate silos or like-minded individuals failing to combine their voices."

In the same sentence, you advocate not for breaking down these silos of information and commerce (which is a market driven solution) but rather to aggregate those same silos into more compartmentalized silos. This is not where technology is leading us, and is not a recipe for success in any way.
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Paperless Tiger
10:40 AM on 02/03/2011
Future generations will refer to our era as The Great Wealth Transfer, because that is the outstanding feature of it. They will marvel at our greed and gullibility.
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muliolis
04:27 PM on 02/03/2011
Yes, that is what government spending does.
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Chaotician101
10:22 AM on 02/03/2011
Indeed, what needs to change first and foremost is our political systems! Unfortunately, the major tool for the needed changes is the most compromised element of our society. The reactionary forces of our society have captured and suborned the political process; the repudiation of the 70s led not to reform and corrections of the politics, but to a "sputnik" moment for the reactionaries which include the Christian Right movement of Falwell and his band of Luddites, NeoCon embrace of the Straussian philosophies embodied in the American Enterprise Institute, the rise of Corporate Fascism and its preemptively suborned of the judicial system, and of course the anti-intellectual embrace of ignorance and class rejection of scientific truth by so many! Without a significant reform of our political processes, nothing that is needed will be possible and the reform will not happen unless the people wake up and force the changes onto our political stooges of the reactionary forces! And the only tool for peaceful revolution is the right for States to hold a Constitutional Convention to make the needed changes! And that will be very hard as the same reactionary elements have great power and economic resources to seize control of this last resource; and even use it as a tool to further their destruction of our society; but it is our last hope!
08:42 AM on 02/03/2011
The only thing that will create change in America is to stop using the Bank's Crack. Credit and buying imported goods feed the evil machine. And don't forget the mindless millions being invested in Wall Street heroin every pay period. Where do the hedge fund crooks get their gold? It is from the mindless investors. Those of you that can still invest look not to wall street but try to invest locally.
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robert horwitz
08:28 AM on 02/03/2011
Most people enjoy a good magic show but when one thinks about any particular trick in the show we understand that it is just an illusion. I am pretty sure that when the magician saws the lady in half and then puts her back together he really never sawed her in half in the first place. We all enjoy the trick but it does require a suspension of belief in reality. I see the economy in the US the same way. For decades our political leaders, business and financial leaders have been telling us everything is great and getting better but it was pretty obvious that the fundamentals that it was built on were nothing but an illusion. Our problem moving forward now because this time we really did saw the lady in half how is this going to be explained to the American People and more important how are we going to go about fixing a long term problem in a world of short term thinkers.
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innerpuppie
The truth is an absolute defense...
01:53 AM on 02/03/2011
Unless we hit the streets like the people of Egypt the middle class will continue to disappear and the upper class will prosper. DC doesn't hear us. They are deaf to our cries of hunger and pain.
09:05 PM on 02/02/2011
Unions got a disproportionate share of Obamacare waivers (more) with regard to the percentage of US workers that belong to unions
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tinyrainbows
10:37 PM on 02/02/2011
Stern and his minions pushed harder than anyone to get HC enacted then dozens of his former locals opted out. Obama diminishes the position he holds.
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Greyfox01
My shoe knows more than they do.
08:07 PM on 02/02/2011
What is happening in Congress and America today seems to reflect the idea that adding to the number of the poor is acceptable behavior as long as it clears the way for the rich to maintain it's status quoi. Most of us don not have a problem with the rich getting richer as long as people aren't used as sacrificia­l lambs. There is no acceptable level of collateral damage to support the idea that more and more is never enough. If you look at all civilizati­ons down through history the rise and decline of Rome, Egypt, France, Spain, England, and the US are a direct result of Allowing corruption within their systems to grow beyond what that system can support. What government­s and the corporate world can't seem to comprehend is that at some point as corruption becomes the driving force to prosperity for some, those who were the middle class are driven to the bottom their view of reality becomes clarified. Soon it doesn't matter if the system breaks down and chaos becomes the norm, they see that if the destructio­n of the system make everyone equals then so be it. Those at the top need to take a chill pill and let the rest of world catch up, or they along with the rest are all going to crash and burn. The equality, sharing the wealth have always been the signature of a successful society, the lack of which has always been it's downfall.
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Paperless Tiger
08:05 PM on 02/02/2011
Top heavy economies collapsing under the weight, that's all. See those hungry folks out there, the ones that don't get raises anymore, those are consumers. That's why you can't sell anything.
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rtx47
05:34 PM on 02/02/2011
America does not need to spend more. It needs to 'get more bang for the buck.'

We spend 17% of GDP on healthcare. Our competitors spend less than 11%; and get BETTER GRADES using internationally accepted healthcare benchmark endpoints. Similar experiences exist for school and undergraduate education.

Let's not look abroad for data and solutions. Comparing costs and effectiveness between states can teach us a lot; if we want to be efficient and productive.

Being cost-effective is achieving / doing more for less money (without spin and accounting gimmicks). Last few decades cost-effectiveness is foreign to the thinking in public sector, (including defense), social support, education and healthcare. In these fields, ones standing is based on income or budget spent. Govt. contributed by reimbursing on cost + 10% formula. Where are incentives for cost-control, and penalties for inefficiencies in cost+ reimbursement?

Incentives and disincentives should be used to change behavior pattern. Money-saving ways to change behavior is disincent­ivize bad choices. Simple example is the quarter put into ALDI shopping cart. This quarter is retrieved on returning the cart. Even in a bad snow storm, and with risks of slipping and falling, people return shopping carts to retrieve their quarter.

In medical care, auditing and non-reimbu­rsement for inappropriate care is a quick way for patients, their family, doctors and hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. This has been proven time and again.

In education, automatic social promotion has been the downward slide to learning.
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tinyrainbows
10:41 PM on 02/02/2011
What competitor­s spend less than 11% of their GDP? England's economy is being crushed by their HC system and is making dramatic cuts in services and options. Canada is also slashing available benefits and can't afford their system. France and Germany are sinking fast, too. You may be talking some of the Nordic socialist countries that have an incredible tax burden on their citizenry...oh wait a minute...that is the progressive plan anyway...I forgot.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Downix
12:29 AM on 02/03/2011
No, England's economy is not being crushed by their HC system. it is being crushed by their banking crisis. Canada is not slashing services. France, like England, is having issues due to their banks. Germany is growing, hard. And Norway was listed as the best country to live in as a businessman, and of the richest people in the world, multiple are found in the Nordic countries.

You, sir, are living in a delusion.
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TimeMaster
I see A, You see B, C is Correct
05:22 PM on 02/02/2011
Today we have many problems and too many politicians. It takes focus and cooperation with real leaders who serve the people and not themselves. Look at Egypt and you see what having a political leader and their cronies in place for too long creates. Too bad the system works and that most people are satisfied with the status quo for too long.

Replace politicians with problem solvers, and maybe we will see a 3rd Economic Revolution. Until then, learn how to protect and build up your financial resources since the powers that be will only focus on repealing health care, ending social security, and lining their own pockets with political contributions and lobbyist funding.

"The revolution will not be televised."
05:20 PM on 02/02/2011
wow! I never saw chad or dylan shake his pom-pom's like that - and our team was only down 51 - 3!!!?

who are you cheering? thank goodness you make it clear it's not ""the destined to destroy us all"" 'free-market' - - - but who is it??

what a weird way to write

try advocating something specific with a hint of clarity next time
05:05 PM on 02/02/2011
How does this government and our reporters have the gall to criticize Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak for the way he runs his country?
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Bayard Waterbury
social philosopher
02:39 AM on 02/03/2011
Amen, sister, amen!!!!!!!!!
05:01 PM on 02/02/2011
Obama messed up, he put one decent person on the commission, Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL 9). I am not sure about Stern.