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Ann Lee

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A World Without China

Posted: 01/09/12 01:20 PM ET

While its more fashionable for certain politicians and many Western media commentators to blame China for America's economic ills, the reality is that the U.S. and the rest of the world would likely be in a deeper recession, if not a depression, were China missing from the global picture.

China accounts for the lion's of the world's domestic consumption growth. Increasing at a rate of about 8 percent per year -- more than twice that of the G7 -- China's growth has actually eased the severity of the economic contraction felt by Americans and people around the world. In short, the jobs crisis would be even worse.

And yet the notion that China took all the manufacturing jobs from the U.S. persists even though U.S. manufacturing jobs started declining long before China became engaged in the global economy. In 1965, U.S. manufacturing was 53 percent of the economy and by the 1970's, manufacturing declined to only 25 percent. And with President Clinton's signing of the NAFTA agreement, U.S. manufacturing jobs further migrated to Mexico, not China.

There are more than 3 million U.S. jobs open today which include those in manufacturing. And painful as it might be to admit, they have remained unfilled for six months or longer because the American labor force lacks the technical skills needed.

Americans, in fact, are the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese labor and consumerism. American corporations have enjoyed record profits since the financial crisis of 2008 because they discovered that China was where they could not only keep expenses low, but also generate rapidly growing revenue.

If China didn't exist, many existing American companies would have closed up shop or never even opened in the first place because they wouldn't have had enough consumer demand to cover the higher expenses associated with higher U.S. labor wages and regulations.

Because of China, the U.S. can employ more accountants, lawyers, marketing professionals, financial advisors, retailers, logistics managers, and a long list of other service jobs that benefited from American entrepreneurs who were able to start their businesses by outsourcing to China.

As reported by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, for every dollar spent by a product made in China, 55 cents goes to pay for American jobs, contributing more to American jobs than products made anywhere else, including those made in the U.S. The U.S. added higher paying service jobs as a result of China. Without China, U.S. unemployment would be much higher than today.

Debt in the U.S. also would have continued to grow unabated if China were not in the picture. Total U.S. household debt grew every single year since 1982 after accounting for inflation. China, on the other hand, did not start buying U.S. Treasuries in significant numbers until the mid 2000s after the Internet crash so China could not have been a significant factor to the U.S. debt problem. Growth in income inequality in the U.S. already started in the 1960's, again, long before China came into the picture.

The truth is that it is simply more convenient to blame China for America's problems than to take ownership and fix them ourselves. Criticizing others is always easier than acknowledging and changing our own bad habits. However, adopting such attitudes and behavior will only make matters worse.

Rather than live in procrastination and denial, we need to recognize that the solutions to America's problems are all within the nation's control as long as there is political will to tackle them. Whether it is nurturing more innovation, retraining unemployed workers, or reining in our addiction to debt, the only thing standing in the way of the U.S. from solving its problems is U.S. leadership.

The existence of China, thankfully, has allowed Americans to buy more time to solve its internal political problems without stagflation rearing its ugly head. That is China's gift to us; let's not squander it.

Author of What the U.S. Can Learn from China, Senior Fellow at Demos, and Professor at New York University

 

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09:36 AM on 01/15/2012
You lost me after stating China consumption is growing at 8%, more than 2x the G7. Flaunting percent tells us exactly nothing. Growth of 8% when the real monetary growth is $1 is not relevant. I don't know what the actual growth is, but your whole article is suspect because of your lack of understanding simple math.
11:34 PM on 01/12/2012
Judging by enormous cumulative current account deficit that we run with China, it's pretty clear that it's China that gets all the benefit out of the trade relationship. We buy Chinese goods and china exports unemployment to us. I don't know where professor Lee studied her economics but she clearly doesnt understand economics enough to teach it
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clearasmud
Obama Is Nothing More Than A Moderate Republican
05:22 PM on 01/12/2012
I would really like to know what those 3 million "technical" jobs are that the press keeps stating exist, that no one is qualified for.
10:40 PM on 01/09/2012
Actually Ms Lee, as repeated studies by the congressional research service show there has been negligible benefits to trade with China. Job losses from China are at least the equal of any 'service jobs' gained. And yes, manufacturing began to leave the USA before the rise of China, but this is the problem of our trade policy, not some mystical force of nature. China merely took advantage of what is a flawed trade-industrial policy more efficiently than Mexico and others could. And yes debt was rising before China artificially kept US interest rates low, but China inflated the asset bubbles to levels otherwise unachievable through the recycling of US dollars acquired via currency manupulation. Yes, blame our politicians, not China, but don't paint our relationship with China as harmonious. It is killing us.
01:44 AM on 01/10/2012
Unless you can call US250 billion a year in advantages "negligible benefits".

1. $100 Billion in annual profits in and from China reported by American companies.

2. Interest differential on the $1.32 Trillion parked in ultra low interest American Treasuries and GSEs. Another $100 Billion a year at least (CIC is getting 11% a year - vs. Treasuries 2.5%).

3. Well priced Made in China accounts for at least another $50 Billion in American consumer savings each year.

Balance that against the 3-5% margin that the China exports to America commands, giving at most $10-20 Billion a year in profits.

That is an advantage of over US$200 Billion a year. Hardly nothing.
07:33 PM on 01/10/2012
Herein lies the problem with assessing the cost-benefits of any relationship. US corporate profits are balanced by the required technological transfers (devaluation of R&D), and the creation of effective competitors. Investment in treasuries has also not been an advantage - this has badly distorted the macroeconomic environment, far outweighing any short term cost of finance advantages. And American 'consumer savings' are real, but so is the loss of earnings for many people.
01:48 AM on 01/10/2012
The fact that (which I concede) not much of this $250 Billion shows up in the wallets of the working Joe, is a distribution problem. The fact that the American rich perennially decide to keep more for themselves, is not a bilateral problem with China, or one that Beijing can solve.
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11:47 PM on 01/25/2012
read through the entire thread - good arguments made by all, but this last comment defines the problem in a nutshell
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Nighthawlk
06:46 PM on 01/09/2012
Ann Lee your article was a good advertisement for China. It has nearly all the toppings of a propagandist could think so. Your coverage wreaks predetermined bias, disinformation and finger pointing you determined was our problem.

You need to realize the businesses actually having the openings you described have moved out of the country. New business development is almost dormant except for ‘mom and pop’ Micro-businesses. Of course we have doctors, lawyers and accountants hanging their own shingle, so to speak, when they go into a sole proprietorship or a Limited Liability Corporation. [ though by rights, this does create new jobs but doesn’t change the unemployment numbers]
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DAE
11:22 PM on 01/09/2012
Balderdash.
04:28 PM on 01/09/2012
China was starving in the 1960's and 70's. It wasn't until 20 years ago that they began to compete in manufacturing. What happened 20 years ago was that American universities began teaching them about industrial engineering. We had many of them at the University of Michigan. We also sent industrial engineers to China. That would have been fine but instead of being grateful and becoming a trusted friend, they began to steal technologies that were not freely available. The began to hack our computers to steal. They began coercing students to steal from our universities. Look at the newspapers and you will find story after story about Chinese citizens caught stealing US secrets. Act like a friend and we will treat you like a friend. Read more at www.china-threat.com
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OneTop
Uh, is that a beer hall?
02:23 PM on 01/09/2012
""There are more than 3 million U.S. jobs open today which include those in manufacturing. And painful as it might be to admit, they have remained unfilled for six months or longer because the American labor force lacks the technical skills needed. ""

Nonsense.

This same old canard is trotted out every recession during the neo-liberal age. There are tens of millions of unemployed and underemployed that used to until recently from manufacturing backgrounds.

I'm sure you meant there is a shortage of skilled workers who want to work for $7.50 / hour, part time, on contract, no benefits etc.

""Total U.S. household debt grew every single year since 1982 after accounting for inflation. ""

That's right as personal debt fuelled economic growth - unitl 2008 when it became no longer sustainable. The reason behind this was that real wages did not increase during this time. All labour productivity and income gains went to capital not to labour.
For Americans to maintain their standard of living (not increase) they were forced to borrow.

This is and was a result of the adoption of neo-liberal economic policies by US governments, so yes, China is not the issue and never was.