Inside Clinton's Narrow Comeback

Hillary Clinton has eked out a crucial win in New Hampshire, a state her aides have long staked out as the "firewall" in her quest for the Democratic nomination. At roughly three points, the margin of victory is far smaller than her lead in state polls over the past 11 months, which often topped 20 points. But Clinton's success will surely help stabilize her presidential campaign, which was rocked by infighting since her loss in Iowa. Rumors of a major staff shakeup had percolated for days: Campaign Co-Chair Terry McAuliffe already annouced that the campaign would "bring in more people to help," while James Carville and Paul Begala spent the primary day denying rumors they were taking over. On Tuesday afternoon, a Democratic source told The Nation that Team Hillary was still debating whether to hand the reins over to Steve Richetti, who served as President Clinton's Deputy Chief of Staff - the strategic post that Karl Rove made famous.

Yet Clinton cleared away the doubts and struck an inspiring note in her victory speech, telling New Hampshire voters, "I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice. I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded!" She was met with roaring applause. Clinton likened the narrow victory to her husband's famous "comeback" in 1992, when he battled back to a surprising second place finish in New Hampshire. Then she offered a much more important parallel, vowing to give America the "kind of comeback" that New Hampshire just gave her.

The Clintons shared another political asset in New Hampshire, though farther offstage. Michael Whouley, the most respected field strategist in Democratic politics, was dispatched to overhaul the mobilization program in the state. Clinton aides had debated whether to deploy him in Iowa, where he had helped engineer John Kerry's huge comeback in 2004, or task him with fortifying the famous "firewall." Some feared that his efforts would simply be wasted in New Hampshire if Clinton lost Iowa, but the "Plan B" advocates won, and now they look pretty shrewd.

Obama took the narrow loss in stride, congratulating Clinton and delivering a dignified iteration of his stump speech. Reminding voters that he was "far behind" for "most of this campaign," Obama repeated his call for a bipartisan "new majority who can lead this nation out of a long political darkness." He did not shy away from reiterating his contrasts with Clinton, claiming the mantle of a different, bolder campaign that is "not just about what I will do as president -- it is also about what you, the people who love this country, the citizens of this country, can do to change it. That's what this election is all about!"

If the boisterous beginning of this presidential campaign proves anything - and elections still do officially start with voting - it's the empirical fact that a year of polls and predictions were flat wrong. Clinton was not an inevitable frontrunner, as her chastened aides now rush to emphasize; "cash on hand" is not even a rough predictor of political viability, as Mike Huckabee and John McCain are celebrating; polling remains unreliable, as every candidate says when the "second tier" comes calling; and while Iowa is powerfully pivotal, even the sum total of its caucus wisdom cannot dictate democracy in other states.

So Obama can only take cautious solace from his strong position in the next two states....

Ari Melber writes for the The Nation, where column first appeared.

Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber

Comments

[nuana]

this is the opinion of a dem on sfchronicle- Hillary 'LBJ' Clinton will end up dividing the voters if she hasn't turned them off already....And I was dreaming of a dem WH
"Some have made the point that democrats should support the democratic nominee regardless of who wins the nomination. While that may be how it works in the Repuke party, while that may be the pathetic excuse of those who voted for Bush, that's not how I roll. Talk all you want about platforms and policy goals (which are never delivered as promised by ANY candidate), what I can't stand is executive lying. Better to elect a guy like McCain, who by most accounts is a straight shooter, than a Romney or Hillary, who will do ANYTHING (lie, cheat, steal?) to be elected. My guy is still Obama, but if he and Edwards go down, there is no way Clinton ("Nixon in a pantsuit") would ever get my vote in the general."

[itsnotmyfault]

An analysis of the vote based on exit polls indicates that if you look exclusively at the registered Democratic vote in NH, Hillary had a significant victory in line with their original projections of double digits. What made it a three point result, was independent voters who went more consistently for Obama. Given the fact that NH and their eccentric anomalous primary system, is unlike most of the critical upcoming states, looking at the strict Democratic result may be a better indicator what to expect. In which case, it is likely that the result favoring Clinton reflects a positive momentum for her prospective nomination beyond the "narrow loss" Obama took in stride.

I hope, though, that the race remains competitive between the two leaders and that the competitiveness is reflected in a highly dignified exchange of their respective ideas as opposed to deteriorating into mutual self destruction. The potential of a race showcasing two highly skilled, intelligent Democrats, one a women and one an African American, would have a halo effect that would be transcendent.

[Freddy334]

Edwards is the only real Democrat in the race. The Clintons exported American jobs to China, other parts of Asia along with the Bushies and Cheney. Obama's supporters are wealthy white folks and their college kids who never did a hard day of work in their lives. They drive BMW, Mercedes and Lexus while American workers are suffering. My neighbor is a republicon but he drives American. The neighbors with Obama and Hillary signs all drive Toyotas, Lexus, BMW, etc. It sickens me. John Edwards will bring American jobs back to America. Obama and Hillary are not real Democrats.

[converse]

Perhaps one of the reasons for the 22nd amendment, limiting presidents to two terms, is because of the awesome power that is developed from bring president for eight years, enough power to sway elections, even to turn around a 10-14 point lead in one day.

[converse]

It occurs to me that this is the first time a candidate has had to run against a two-term president since Wendell Willkie vs. FDR in 1940.

[sky2evan]

Actually, polls are NEVER wrong. Predictions can be right or wrong, but polls are only a record of a sampling of opinion for a given moment in time. The longer the time factor, the greater the possibility for variance. That's why outside of the actual vote itself, entrance & exit polls are always the most accurate.

The national polls showing 20-point Clinton leads all took place before active campaigning, with Mr. Obama still being relatively unknown & unscrutinized by your average voter, who is typically NOT a political junkie. So to use those polls as a prediction of a general election outcome would be nonsensical.

The NH night-before polls were actually pretty accurate indicators for every candidate EXCEPT for Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton.

And those 10-point lead Obama polls were all completed before Ms. Clinton's crying episode & (the smaller iron-my-shirt incident), which was later recycled by all media for 24-hours before the primary.

[Brickfielder]

What is this, the Foxington Post?

First you've been throwing around 'inauthenticity as code for doing to Hillary what the media did to Gore in 2000. Now the NH results is being qualified so heavily in your columns that in a couple of hours you'll persuade yourselves that your candidate actually won.

There are 3 excellent Democrat candidates. Dancing in a Fox News circle and chanting 'inauthentic' does not after that fact, but it does say something on the extent to which Foxpo seems to have arrogated to itself the same powers as the rest of the traditional media.

[Stevelagain]

She did listen, she cried, I saw it!