You know who won, so here are my takeaways from what might be the beginning of the end:
1. Romney Actually Won Big
There is a rumor going around that Romney did not win convincingly. "Five Years Campaigning, Less Than 40%?," blared Huffington Post's quizzical election headline. Here's a better question: Who breaks 40% while winning New Hampshire?
John McCain didn't -- he won with 37% last cycle. Neither did Granite State winners Hillary Clinton (39%) or John Kerry (38%). Romney's 39% stacks up well, and he is competing in a pretty wide field. Thus while Romney's total is close to those previous winners, his margin of victory is actually significantly larger, as Karl Rove noted on Tuesday night. A decisive Romney victory doesn't fit the "anti-Romney" narrative, however, so these numbers have been underplayed.
In another sign of strength, Romney led among all voters when they were asked who would be a satisfactory nominee. Regardless of who they backed, 61% of New Hampshire voters found him satisfactory -- in other words, some 20% of the people who voted for other candidates have already accepted the idea of Romney in the general election.
2. There's This Guy in Second Place Named Ron Paul
While Romney is the first non-incumbent Republican to dominate the first two contests in the modern era, Ron Paul is the only candidate besides Romney to finish strong in both states. He trailed Romney by just three points in Iowa, and came in a very solid second last night. In fact, Paul had more votes in New Hampshire than Santorum, Gingrich and Perry combined. (Imagine the media reaction if Huntsman pulled that off.)
Just as he showed breadth in appealing to evangelicals in Iowa, Paul's constituency was quite wide in New Hampshire. He led all candidates among voters making under $50,000 (about a quarter of the electorate). He was second to Romney among the McCain wing of the party - voters who had a favorable view of the last GOP nominee (a majority of the electorate).
Yet Paul's opponents are strong opponents, the thinking goes, so he would not be accepted by the rest of Republicans. But is that true? You'd have to ask them. The exit pollsters did, and overall, regardless of personal preference, more voters said they would be "satisfied" with a Paul nomination than Gingrich or Santorum. Now, that could reflect some ignorance about Paul's record and ideas, but if the press is going to cover the strength of Paul's campaign on earth, and not its hypothetical vulnerabilities, then it's time to report the reality of his wide appeal in this race so far.
A voter tuning into the conservative coverage at Fox News on Tuesday, however, would have no idea that Paul is currently in second place. Many other outlets have not been much better -- the press would love to have a two-man race, but not enough to overcome its thick distaste for Paul. The political media has been shorting his campaign, and there are few signs that any evidence will change how the press invests its coverage -- a valuable commodity as time runs out. So, like Mike Huckabee or Jesse Jackson before him, Ron Paul is learning that if the press deems you "unserious," even the voters can't save you.
3. New Hampshire is Not The GOP Base, But The Base is Not What You Think
Complaints about the unrepresentative nature of Iowa and New Hampshire come along like the Olympics, or like a presidential campaign. They happen every four years, is what I'm trying to say. And the complaints are true but a little misleading.
Last night, for example, Romney didn't just win an open primary packed with independents. He also did better than every other candidate among people who describe themselves as "very conservative" - about one out of five voters.
Remember the Tea Party? Romney did best among Tea Party supporters, doubling the take of their next favorite candidate. (It was Ron Paul, but shhh -- this is not a two-man race!)
Romney did best among registered Republicans, too, again more than doubling the support for the next most popular candidate. (You get one guess on who that was.) And in the sub-slice of the electorate that most concretely reflects actual participation by The Base -- Republicans who voted in previous GOP primaries -- Romney dominated with a strong 43%. The candidate who came in second among those active, experienced Republican voters? At 20% it was, naturally, Ron Paul.
But if you're a smart political junkie, you can just forget about him -- let's talk about whether Rick Perry can build on his 1% showing and buy ads in Florida, and did you see what Newt Gingrich said the other day?....
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Ari Melber writes for The Nation, where this article was first published.
Photo of Ron Paul at the 2012 Iowa Caucus by Gage Skidmore.
Follow Ari Melber on Twitter: www.twitter.com/AriMelber
"Yet Paul's opponents are strong opponents, the thinking goes, so he would not be accepted by the rest of Republicans. But is that true? You'd have to ask them. The exit pollsters did, and overall, regardless of personal preference, more voters said they would be "satisfied" with a Paul nomination than Gingrich or Santorum. Now, that could reflect some ignorance about Paul's record and ideas, but if the press is going to cover the strength of Paul's campaign on earth, and not its hypothetical vulnerabilities, then it's time to report the reality of his wide appeal in this race so far."
That above paragraph sums up the gap between the media narrative/marginalization of Paul vs. the actual facts on the ground.
Or taxes. An argument can be made that there is a rate of taxation at which any higher reduces growth, reduces production, etc (Laffer curve). But we are so far from that it's Laffable (haha). And Republicans claim that any discussion of the marginal tax rate is 'class warfare' -- despite the fact that taxes are at their lowest rates in generations, and that we had great growth and income distribution when marginal rates were above 70%.
Face it, Republicans have become extremists and Ron Paul is the epitome and most fringe of much of their ideology.
You are a cynic pure and simple, with no grasp of reality. I'm talking policy. In terms of policy positions, the modern right-wing is extremist compared to even 20 years ago.
On the other hand many of his views are so absurdly extremist, that anyone with a grasp on reality understands he shouldn't be taken seriously.
For instance, he thinks removing regulations will result in corporations self-regulating and that somehow individuals won't be harmed in this scenario. As if this hasn't been proven wrong in the US over and over and over again... as well as being proven wrong on in every nation around the world without the same regulations as the US.
Or that he thinks removing support (financial and otherwise) for medical services for the poor would result in non-profits and doctors picking up the slack. Again, this has been proven to be a pipe-dream.
The idea that ridding involvement by government in education, medicine, business, and in general regulations across the board -- is somehow going to make things better is simply absurd.
And regardless, just because I don't agree with him on every single issue, doesn't mean I don't agree with him on most issues.
You all or nothing types will never be satisfied.
Boehner, Cantor, Paul and Bachmann are ALL up for reelection in November. -NON of them will ever be president. Which of these should continue to be Representatives or should given 'pink slips' and sent home with 27 weeks of unemployment checks and NO taxpayer funded lifetime pension?
Lol...since you're new, here's a quick heads up: Almost NO ONE "checks their facts". Sad, but true. So don't get too jaded when you encounter many more people like the one to whom you just responded.
P.S. The same applies for reading articles. Many people post comments without reading the article on the page...often leading to situations were their "good ideas/opinions" are directly refuted by the article under which they're commenting.
The MSM is short-circuiting the electoral process when it "votes" by its coverage that a particular candidate is unworthy of coverage.
For the two parties to think this will movement will be dead within a year and business will continue as usual in DC might find themselves suddenly on the outs with the American people. I don't see Romney doing any better than Obama in cleaning up how DC works. At some future point its going to be independent groups doing battle and eventually coming to compromise not this outdated and ineffective two party system.