Obama Claims New Lead

Barack Obama's campaign wants to make his Super Tuesday victory official.

Campaign Manager David Plouffe says that Obama won 9 more delegates than Hillary Clinton on Tuesday, based on a pledged delegate estimate conducted overnight by analysts in the campaign's Chicago "boiler room." Obama won 845 delegates to Clinton's 836, according to Obama's data team, which includes Democratic targeting buff Ken Strasma and delegate expert Jeff Berman, who caused the AP to reverse its Nevada delegate estimate a few weeks back.

"By winning a majority of delegates and a majority of the states, Barack Obama won an important Super Tuesday victory over Senator Clinton in the closest thing we have to a national primary," Plouffe told reporters on Wednesday. Senior Clinton strategists depicted Clinton as an energized underdog in a media conference call on Wednesday, contending that voters are rejecting Obama's "establishment" campaign.

The Clinton campaign has not released its own estimate, so Obama's spreadsheet may be all we have to go on for a while. These numbers refer to Super Tuesday only -- not to the total count of delegates from prior states or the party's mercurial, "elite contingent" of superdelegates.

Comments

[belladawna]

quote:"The Clinton campaign has not released its own estimate, so Obama's spreadsheet may be all we have to go on for a while."

isn't that what most people have been doing as of late? relying on all his campaign fodder as the gospel?!?!? no wonder people hate the polls when she wins!!! and no offense to the guy he did well, but......... she's gonna win this. these two should just team up, with her as "the boss", and be done with this!! then this country would be, in my humble opinion, in for a huge change literally!!!!!!!

[BionicWoman]

What BozObama can't seem to get is that the more he makes these claims, the more he attacks Hillary - THE MORE US WOMEN WILL SUPPORT HER! And, New Mexico has 17,000 ballots it hasn't counted yet. Brag and look like a fool.

[TedB]

I have been trying to make sense of the delegate count all morning and cannot. Adding to Ari's numbers above:

CNN's results at:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
Clinton: 811, including 193 super d's
Obama: 720, including 106 super d's

MSNBC's results at:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22419475
Clinton: 834
Obama: 838
not sure if these include super d's

Real Clear Politics results at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Clinton: 900, including 211 super d's
Obama: 824, including 128 super d's

[LeeFromVA]

Sweet! But this is just the beginning. He has several favorable states coming up. Certainly DC and MD, but also my home state of VA where anyone can vote in either primary.

[MaryNY1]

If the Clinton campaign had different numbers, then they would have released them ... So I guess these numbers ARE correct.

[FJRinLA]

Fantastic.

Could you please add detailed pre-Tuesday results going back to Iowa?

Here's a blog for you:

"Controlling for Race & Gender"

Take a poll if we hypothetically eliminated race and gender.

For example, if we assumed both Clinton and Obama were white men, with everything else about them being the same:
their age,
political records,
campaign styles, and
personal appeal.

And let's also look at the results of this campaign so far and determine, how the Democratic party voters and leadership would assess their general election prospects with each of these candidates:

Candidate A)
He was married to the first female President but now has become an accomplished Senator in his own right.

Generally regarded as the most polarizing figure in the DEM party due more to his wife than him. So trails badly in polls with INDS.

Carried so far by Latinos and women who still regard his wife's historic presidency fondly.

Has won the big traditionally DEM states that the party normally carris in a general election.

Candidate B
Seen as slightly less experienced as a Junior freshman, though his supporters cite his statehouse experience and take comfort in his newness to Washington D.C.

He shares most the same policy views with Candidate A except he was against an unpopular war that Candidate A supported.

He also is for drivers license for undocumented workers while Candidate A is not. This carries some riskk in general election since the majority of voters do not want that.

However, he has some protection in that he has won more states so far, and particularly in areas dominated by INDS and REPS that DEMS have traditionally not done well in.

Who would DEMS conclude it best to mobilize behind to optimize not only the chances for winning the election; but also to advance slim DEM majorities in both Houses of Congress?