A Great Night for Hillary, a Crappy Night for Pollsters

Nashua, New Hampshire -- The results from New Hampshire represent a crushing setback. Not for Barack Obama -- after all, only three weeks ago he was 12 points behind.

No, the biggest losers of the night were the pollsters, who will now have to down a heaping helping of humble pie. Like Lucy Ricardo, they have a lot of 'splainin' to do. That includes CNN, which over the weekend had Obama up 9 points and USA Today/Gallup, which had him up by 13.

This was obviously a great night for Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Bill. But also a very good night for the democratic process (record turnout), and for the long-term prospects of Barack Obama.

The voters clearly want the nominee they pick to have fought for it. They don't want a coronation. And now Obama has a chance to prove to the skeptics his mettle under fire.

And were it not for the over-inflated expectations puffed up by the pollsters, Obama coming within two points of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, which has long been Clinton country -- with a superb organization and the support of the state's Democratic establishment -- would have been seen as a great showing.

But none of the endemic New Hampshire Clinton advantages would have delivered victory were it not for Hillary -- either through desperation or exhaustion -- finally letting down her guard and showing her human side. Or as she put it, "I found my own voice." She got angry in the debate; she got emotional on the stump. Indeed, her victory in New Hampshire was a resounding repudiation of the Mark Penn plan to keep her in a bubble, allow no questions in the last few days of Iowa, and act as if her nomination were inevitable.

"Something is happening in America," Obama said during his concession speech, citing the extraordinary turnout and the country's longing for change.

As an African American Obama supporter said to me tonight, "It's always harder than we think. It's always a struggle. But we shall prevail."

He was referring to the black experience in America. But he might as well have been speaking about any real progress that's been made in this country -- from the Emancipation Proclamation to the Clean Air and Water Acts.

And it's a fitting rallying cry for anyone looking for real change through the '08 race.

Comments

[Leda]

A great night for Hillary- a crappy nite for Hillary Bashers----
may there be many more- oh sorry AH. Read Roseanne
Barr's rant on Obama--- pretty f-ing funny,

Really could Huff Po
Possibly be less sensationalist & could someone help educate the public on where candidates actually stand on issues that affect them?
Of I forgot--- our country is only interested in tabloid journalism....
an informed populace- that would be too much of a democracy.... keep it coming all you bashers..

You know my illiterate brain can't handle anything more.
xo Leda in l.a.

[JFaye]

The pollsters getting it wrong, was a healthy dynamic for the political process. Unfortunately, far too many Americans use the polls when considering what candidate to support. Perhaps now, more voters will do their homework and cast a discerning vote for the best candidate in their opinion... and not what the pollsters say.

[belladawna]

hope this is ok to post this. if anyone wants to contribute then click here:
https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/form.html?sc=ac0&rc=FIV6

[belladawna]

hope this is ok to post here. to contribute to hillary if anybody would like to.
https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/form.html?sc=ac0&rc=FIV6

[belladawna]

from a unbiased point of view hillary sounds like she's trying to get the republicans to vote for her by walking and talking the republican line in her speeches. i still think she's more "qualified" to run this country than obama. i like him alot but all hillary has to do now is buff up the "spin" on her environmental issues-http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/energy/ with her health care- http://www.hillaryclinton.com/feature/healthcareplan/ and "terrorist" - http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/iraq/ talks and she's going nail this whole thing. watch.... :)

[outmost1]

Once upon a time about fifteen years ago polls could be counted on to provide a realistic snapshot of the mood of a people in fairly accurate terms. Since about ten years ago there has been a groundswell of election results that discredit or disprove the polling results. The most egregious example would have to be the election day results from Florida in 2000. This might have been the culmination of the effort to discredit poll results so that the American people would just take the "results" at face value. Perhaps the discrepancies point to the ongoing efforts to keep Americans from trusting the math that poll results are based on so when Rudy is shown to win the '08 election despite his horrible polling numbers we will all go along and not riot in the streets like we should if we truly were paying attention.

[ErrinF]

New Hampshire chose Gore in 2000. He went on to lose the general election.

New Hampshire chose Kerry in 2004. He went on to lose the general election.

New Hampshire has now chosen Clinton in 2008. Given their recent track record, the Democrats should be smart and NOT vote the way New Hampshire votes any more.

This is just so common for how the Washington DC insiders of the Democratic party operate. They get their machine (which includes blindly partisan party loyalists) to support a weak candidate that is an insider rather than a strong candidate that is an outsider. Independents would much rather vote for Obama, but the Democratic elites and establishment would rather shut out Obama so that a candidate that does not appeal to the independents can win the primaries. If the Democratic primary voters are dumb enough to play along with this insider BS once again, then I have no pity for them if Hillary loses the 2008 general election should the Democratic establishment be able to win her the party's nomination.

[ImNotThere1956]

Add my voice to those who are angry that the mainstream media (apparently now including HuffPost) refuses to look closely enough at the NH vote counting to see (or at least report) the large discrepancy between machine-counted results and those counted by hand. The votes counted by hand closely approximated the polls; the machine counts vary widely-- favoring Clinton and Romney by several percentage points, and subtracting several points from Obama and Paul. The suppression of such facts is my reason for no longer taking supposed mainstream journalism seriously: The "story" in the "news" is just that: a story, not the facts. Stop listening to myths about misty eyes making thousands of people change their votes. Wake UP! Demand more from your news. http://ronrox.com/paulstats.php?party=DEMOCRATS - bradblog.com - prisonplanet.com for starters.

[ladygreenslippers]

In those few days in NH she managed to make derogatory comments about Putin (so much for international relations. Just what we need another Bush, just more eloquence), she managed to portray her as the womanly victim, and she managed to say that it was all good and well for Martin LUther King to have dreams, but it took a president to make it happen!
No wonder she was emotional, she had to distract from all the crap that was overflowing from her mouth.
If Obama had done any one of those, his campaign would have been over. Why do we keep giving this person the benefit of the doubt, when she repeatedly shows and says what kind of president she would be, the kind of administration, and the kind of country we'll have as a result.

[shaefromTn]

I am sick to death of the media bias against Hilary Clinton!! I think people are finally waking up to truth and the polls and media can go straight to hell!

[denver]

What drives me crazy is Barack became Washington in two years.If he is so against Iraq and has superior judgment why did he vote with Hillary 99.9 percent of the time.He never stood up or out to stop the war,like Russ Feingold of WISS.All because he is a smart politician who was plotting his run in 08.Hillary is the best chance we have not to have a neocon in there again.She can get the vote out you need only to look at NH to figure that out.And im so sick of ignorant people calling Hillary Bush light,give me a break.What a joke

[denver]

John Kerry just endorsed Obama today.What a slap in the face to John Edwards,that said a Kerry endorsement is political suicide.The man cant go more than five sentences without putting his foot in his mouth,and not good for Barack who wants new face and change Kerry is so establishment,and a reminder of how bad the dems did in 04 with him as the nominee.Im for Hillary,to me she is change and knows the process to have change happen,its only a word if you dont have the know how on the hill,and Barack has said to much to piss off those old white goats that will be waiting to slap him down Hillary has been there done that and can make things happen.

[ChristopherLib]

A good analysis Ariana, and I think it's obviously good that we aren't coronating Obama with out looking at him deeper. On the other hand I'm sure you, and most other Obama supporters, wish he has won. Then it would have been very hard for Hillary to come back.

New Hampshire saw the media pushing Obama and said hold on a second. If we give Obama a win here we'll probably be giving him the nomination. I think the people there realise, even if they won't say it, that the system of giving them and Iowa so much power is not fair. Now Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, and all those Super Duper Tuesday states will likely end up deciding it, though it wouldn't surprise me if it ended up going farther than that.

[letsmakesense]

No Arianna the pollsters did not get it wrong. Hillary won in New Hampshire because the powers to be cheated in the machine vote count and in the tabulations of the hand counts.
Google New Hampshire vote fraud.
This secret criminal operation not only stole the election from Obama to give it to the CFR/media chosen candidate Clinton, they also kept Ron Paul out of third in GOP race thereby slowing his campaign.
Please google New Hampshire vote fraud instead of playing into their hands and continuing this senseless debate of man woman black white etc.
Thank you

[gonnuts]

A great night for Diebold and the MIC.

A bad night for the American people.