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How to Tell if There Will be a Dem Sweep: The Early Races

05/25/2011 12:00 pm ET
  • Art Levine Contributing Editor, The Washington Monthly

One of the country's savviest political reporters, Salon's Walter Shapiro, has highlighted the early results to watch in the east coast to tell if there's going to be a strong Democratic tide this evening. He notes, after reviewing some of the key races, what to watch for:

"The Democrats will be heading for an epic House sweep, if, by 8 p.m., they have won three GOP-held Indiana seats, at least one in Kentucky, one in New Hampshire, one in Virginia (if Phil Kellam knocks off Thelma Drake in the 2nd District) and a minimum of three in Ohio. That new math would give the Democrats nine new House seats -- leaving them just six pickups around the country short of making Nancy Pelosi speaker. Conversely, if by 8 p.m. Eastern, the Republicans have held their losses to, say, three seats, then the Democrats will once again be reeling from the hidden power of the GOP's turnout operation. "