He can win in 2012, but a small makeover is in order.
Since we elected Barack Obama, we've learned a handful of things about him that aren't loveable. We're talking about subtleties of character, the things that influence our unconscious levels of approval and affection. Or disapproval and disaffection.
Here's what I think we've learned: Barack Obama is articulate, but he isn't persuasive. He is sincere but we don't feel his embrace. He has wit but his smile doesn't reach us. This president's essential quality is that he seems one step removed. He leaves us with the impression that, no, he doesn't feel our pain. During his first term, he has become harder to... um... imagine hugging.
The Republicans love that stuff. They know that every time someone says Barack Obama is articulate, he loses another vote. Articulate is what schoolteachers are, and only little girls too young to vote love schoolteachers. The 2012 election will be meaner than any election since Aaron Burr walked the new nation's earth. But meanness won't help Obama. Vitriol isn't a good strategy for the aloof president. To be re-elected, Barack Obama will need to work himself over, not his opponent. He needs to re-connect with us, the people who put him in office in the first place.
The question is how can we help him, because not re-electing him is unthinkable. A recent headline in the Washington Post announced that the Center-Left is pulling away from Obama. Can you spell dumb? Placing the Democratic nomination in the hands of anyone but the sitting president would seal a Republican victory.
If the Republicans get the White House in 2012, the Center-Left will look back fondly -- and feebly -- at Obama. Hell, they'll look back fondly at Bush and Cheney. If you think the last Republicans got everything wrong -- from Iraq to Samuel Alito -- wait until you see Rick Perry's version of foreign and domestic policy.
No, it's not time to abandon Obama. It's time to help him connect with the people who voted for him last time. He needs simple, achievable advice. Fortunately, I have some.
The Obama 12-step program to re-election.
- Stop playing basketball. Race is going to play a bigger role in 2012 than in 2008. When Stevie Wonder and Jay-Z come to the White House, make sure the photo op is with Tom Hanks. Do public appearances in very mixed senior centers, schoolrooms, factories. It's ugly out there. An hour online will convince you.
We can't let that happen.