Saw all the polls showing McCain up? Had a big gulp when Gallup showed McCain way up? Relax. Jonah Goldberg helpfully reminds us why McCain is going to lose in the end.
Every presidential candidate since 1960 has gotten a "bump" or "bounce" . . . except George McGovern . . . . After the 1980 convention, Jimmy Carter erased Reagan's healthy lead, gaining 7 points while Reagan lost 6. So, during this week twenty years ago the race stood at 39% for Reagan, 38% for Carter, and 14% for John Anderson. . . .Now here's the really important thing to keep in mind: Jimmy Carter was a loser . . . And guess what? He lost, for that is what losers do. Indeed he lost by a bigger margin -- 50.75% to 41.02% -- than the amount by which he was trailing before his bounce.
Your friend and mine Jonah was talking about Al Gore, of course, not John McCain, but his analysis shouldn't be any different today.
Oh yeah, and here's the magic of Palin explained:
Then, of course, there was 1996. Bob Dole got the second-biggest bounce in memory. (The highest was Bill Clinton's in 1992.) The Dole bounce was explained in the press as the result of the Kemp pick, in much the same way Gore's choice of Lieberman is cited as lifting the ticket. Dole lost by 9 points, and -- except for about ten days after that year's Democratic convention -- pretty much everyone would have predicted the loss.
I know some will object on the basis that Al Gore actually won in 2000. Yes, he did, but Miami also won the 2003 National Championship game, except for that phantom pass interference call/Supreme Court decision. That bad call allowed Bush to wreck the nation like Willie McGahee's knee. The country may have gotten embroiled in war and suffered financial ruin at the hands of that idiot, but at least we never had to play for Buffalo. Putting the closeness of the 2000 election aside, you have to remember that Gore had the burden of laboring under succeeding one of the most popular presidents in United States history. McCain doesn't have that problem. It won't be that close.
So don't be despondent. Whether despondent or confident now, the real question is a practical one. How many hours are you going to put into knocking on doors, registering voters, and making phone calls to share your story of why you support Barack Obama between now and the election? It's more efficient than spending four years bitching about John McCain's fuck ups and sighing when some McCain voter says "Damn! I had no idea they'd really ban abortion and nuke Iran!"
Let's win this thing. Thanks Jonah!
Update: Jonah Goldberg replies. Very much a non-refutation refutation. If he sticks to his underlying premises as he says he does, it's hard to figure out why he thought Gore would lose then if he doesn't think that McCain will lose now. Anyway, thanks Jonah, I don't know who Bart Motes is either.
Follow Bart Motes on Twitter: www.twitter.com/bmotes
Bush wrecked the nation? When did this happen? Was this recent? Jeez, I always miss the good stuff.
Gosh. Good thing Bush isn't running again.
I know all you libs like self flagellation so I'm giving this to you as a gift.
http://blog.topicaltopics.net/2008/09/sarah-palin-speech-transcript/
Enjoy.
I feel pumped, fired up and ready to go!
BTW: I wasn't a Hillary supporter during the primaries, but I have to say she was WONDERFUL on the campaign stump in Tampa today -- she got a HUGE turnout.
McCain-Palin 2008!
Any forthcoming explanations or analysis, Republinazi? Or are you just gonna sit there in your McMansion, flicking your Bic, thinking of those glorious Reichstag days--?
You can talk the talk, Republinazi--but you can't walk the walk.
Just like your hoped-for fuhrer, John McCan't.
McCain/Palin = A Bushco Extender and a VP Pretender.
Obama/Biden in Novemeber
For you newish activists out there, let me suggest any apartment complex anywhere near a college campus. My hit rate on unregistered voters (at the correct address) was much higher than I expected at such a place (everyone I found at home except two weren't registered).
It still depresses me that so many people are so easily manipulated with the lies. I HATE being lied to. My reaction involves lots of adrenaline. It is not good for my health.
If someone in Ohio (or some other battleground state) would like for me to hit some places like this for GOTV activities, I will commit to a long weekend there knocking on doors and registering voters.
Perhaps the phone bank is a more efficient use of my time. Suggestions?
My contribution each election year is to take people to vote early, I find the closest location to their home and ask if they need a ride to vote early also say that they won't need to rush on election day.
My father would take numerous elderly on "field trips" to vote all the time, he would sign them up for a date, location of their choice and use my sister's van EVERY YEAR. But he suffered a heart attack in July and cannot drive the field trips so, my siblings, neices, nephews are volunteering in his stead.
Since 1998 when my mother passed he has done this each election state or federal, by his calculation he's taken over 1,000 people to vote and he will really miss it this year.
i had a really good conversation with her and told her why i support barack...asked her what was important to her and told her why barack would be a good president. people who rely on tv commercials are really at a loss. how can your average person sort through the crap on ads without any other information? talking to people, one undecided voter at a time, can hopefully bring some people around. the next step will be to actually get them to go vote.
and the Frightening FOX NEWS and the talk radio barbarians. I include Jonah Goldberg among them. The only hope is that the voter turnout is far greater that imagined that would get OBAMA elected. A voter turnout so impressive that NEOCON attempts to disenfranchise large blocks of voters would be unsuccessful. Watch out for CHENEY.
Obama/Biden '08
The tracking polls and "national polls" reflect, at best, popular votes. And as we know all to well from 2000, the popular vote is irrelevant or "President" Gore would be coming to the end of his second term in January, 2009.
The polls, which are largely ignored by the broadcast and cable news anchors/commentators as well as all to many print "journalists," are the "state polls." The November 4 election, after all, is decided by STATES won and their electoral votes.
If you look at electoral-vote.com, fivethirtyeight.com, politico.com, and pollster.com, their electoral maps all show Sen. Obama ahead of Sen. McCain. (The closest ones are politico and realclearpolitics with 273 Obama to 265 McCain).
This doesn't mean we can afford to sit back and relax. With only some 56 days or so until the election, phone banks, canvassing, and registering voters are all important as well as each of us giving what we can in dollars to Obama/Biden '08.
Yes, we can!
these things matter, even to people who think they don't.
get out there and make it so
and remember. 'Jesus was a community organiser. Pontius Pilate was a Governor.'