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Dr. Belisa Vranich

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Mind Games: The TV Ratings Rat Race

Posted: 10/11/10 11:47 AM ET

What do TV preseason forecasts, penis enhancement pills, and abstinence-only education have in common? Answer: They don't work. Regardless of your political or religious views on the effectiveness of virginity pledges, of your conviction that you can "add four inches" to your package with a pill or cream, or of your opinion on the reliability of marketing research, good 'ole fashioned analysis of success falls short in all three.

Recently, Fox dropped the ball with this new season's Lone Star, their big budget bonk, which despite sexy promos, full-spectrum marketing, and respectable actors, stumbled and tanked. These snafus happen in other business, too: 8 out of 10 products fail despite lengthy consumer analysis and testing. Truth is, traditional focus groups just aren't cutting it; what you answer to a moderator has little to do with your actual behavior when responding to a public health message, maneuvering a shopping cart down the aisle, or watching the next season of Glee instead of the hot new series about a cop with two wives. Humph.

I'm a psychologist; I spend a lot of time precariously tiptoeing and weaving my way through therapy sessions that slide between conscious and unconscious "content." We don't even know why we like certain things. (Hell, even Snooki's own dad can't figure out what we see in her. ) Even I, a careful consumer, find myself unpacking bags from Costco at home and wondering, what was I thinking? An 8-pound bag of pistachios? Or, even worse, why does my new "little black dress" that looks a lot like the others I own make me so darned happy?

Buying certainly is an emotional experience and is becoming more so. How and what you purchase is becoming exponentially more complicated: we contemplate being a "frugal" superpower, yet we become spendthrifts searching for happiness by indulging in "retail therapy" at the mall during lunchtime, and even jostling for position between shopping and sex. In therapy sessions, I know that the deepest unconscious thoughts come out in dreams, drawings, twitches, and slips of the tongue. What to some might seem a simple reflex act of choosing one bag of frozen peas over another, can be laden with issues of self-worth and nurturing that cannot be easily verbalized.

There's a lot of talk about neuromarketing being the future. Is it the answer? Perhaps. Fact is, we are already turning to fMRIs to make sense of things that once sounded hopelessly inexplicable--like love, autism, and road rage. Neuromarketing like that done by Buyology, One to One, and Innerscope might be able to explain why my plan to find a healthy, complex carb cereal box is derailed at the last moment by an impulse-buy of Coco Puffs (and I'm sure you can give me dozens of examples where you have done the same thing).

This type of technology ain't cheap. Donna Sturgess, President and founding partner of Buyology, Inc., and former Global Head of Innovation for GlaxoSmithKline, explains: "For decades, businesses have said 'If only I could look into the mind of my consumer to really understand why they watch what they watch, or buy what they buy.' We now have the technology for deeper insights from neuroscience to apply to business. It is widely accepted that 85% of consumer decision-making happens at the nonconscious or emotional level, which is where relationships reside. Yet networks aren't even looking at this before they invest millions into a new series, so it's not too surprising that shows keep falling flat. Neuromarketing is like a magic decoder of insights to give you true indication of what show has a better chance at success."

It's no surprise, then, that in working with consumers with dwindling impulse control and itchy trigger fingers, the future of next generation of marketing research will have to refocus its efforts in order to understand the unconscious motivations that exist in those crucial milliseconds that it takes to click a mouse button or swipe a credit card. The answer: Go long. Go deep. Into the unconscious. Stay tuned...

1. Set against the backdrop of greed and corruption in the Texas oil and power industries, Lone Star is a drama about a con man. Didn't watch it? Neither did I.
2. "It's very hard for me to see what it is. She don't sing. She don't dance."
New York Times, July 23, 2010.
3. A study from the University of Westminster has found that special offers make us so deliriously happy that the brain is turned on to the same level excitement that it gets from sex.

 
 
 
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03:29 PM on 10/13/2010
Or maybe "America's Got Talent"...this one I do NOT understand....
03:28 PM on 10/13/2010
This surely explains why people (myself included) love Bachelor Pad...
01:20 PM on 10/13/2010
How will this technology affect the legal and political arena?
12:57 PM on 10/13/2010
Neuromarketing will certainly change the game in the coming years. It will improve the quality of products being offered (from automobiles, to food, commercials and television shows) while at the same time increasing the derived satisfaction of the consumer. Focus-groups were biased for many reasons, but with brain-scans this problem will diminish significantly.
Great article.
01:41 PM on 10/12/2010
Unconscious motivations! How very interesting this is! From a consumer standpoint it helps us understand ourselves...From a marketing standpoint it makes it that much easier for them to give us want we want...what we REALLY want! It's a win/win for everybody!
11:44 AM on 10/12/2010
Its what happens too people or what happens within people when you cram the cage too full of rats.

New York, Manhattan
Calcutta, India
China

We'll need automated friends to convince us that we're not alone in our insect worlds. We'll need billboards to talk to us about our blue jeans, and our shoes. We'll need automated home sex partners like droids since anyone can adopt nobody really feels compelled to "raise" a biological mistake. We'll need talking homes with voices to tell us hello, thank you, and how great we are while they ask if it can start dinner, laundry and yard sprinkler system.

We wont need grammar school for kids because all professional endeavors will be processed by a combined DNA, mental aptitude, tests, physical performances and genetic mapping. No need to spend government money on the stupid kid who's never gonna be anything, right ? Just home school that idiot with a computerized teleconference class. That will keep Suzy safe and mom wont have to buy a cell phone for her 6 year old to keep tabs on her.

And when it happens the generation after that will not ask, what life was like before we gave up our humanity they'll just accept life as it is presented to them in a Gattica like package.

Then it'll be world war. The Morlocks verses Eli. The Eli a flighty beautiful people full of intellect and physical beauty and the Morlocks - the rest of mankind but alot uglier.
11:30 AM on 10/12/2010
I think we're entering an age of human existence and expression that will baffle most traditional thinkers and academics. I believe I have a key hole view into where the human specie is heading should we survive the next world war.

I'll explain. I've noticed that people of all walks of culture, finance, power and social status have adopted a new philosophical perspective and it is becoming a chemical alteration of their behavior.

Philosophy Rule #1

Never allow anyone particularly anyone capable of affecting your life, career, meal choice, grades, future choices know what your thinking or your desires.

Philosophy Rule #2

Everything you say or do should be done to observe the results whether profound, exciting, static, controlled, or unbridled and violent.

Philosophy Rule #3

Lies are floating gaseous amoebas that have no adherence to reality, value or character and can generated ad nausem per individual and used as a tool to obtain ones immediate agenda.

Philosophy Rule #4

The world is your play ground and everyone in it are there just for your amusement and do not warrant more than nominal attention to function through life of course unless they are on Television, Cinema or part of a nationally known musical group. Then they "count".

RESULTS :

We're becoming insects. Without remorse. Without sensitive humane consideration. Without thoughtful contemplation or pause of action.

The poetry of the human specie is dying and we're letting it be murdered for a chance to be a TV reality star.
01:19 PM on 10/13/2010
I disagree, but then again there are ludites in every generation.
Technology is a tool that enables the human being to reach ever-greater goals, and improve our livelihoods, you can argue this point but I sure rather live in the 21st century than in the dark ages as a king.
11:23 AM on 10/12/2010
I totally agree! Focus groups pay well and I try to go to as many as possible. And yes, sometimes I just repeat what the person next to me says. Why? I don’t want to be too different or inappropriate..
Why do companies continue to test that way if they know it doesn’t really work?
09:30 PM on 10/11/2010
Really interesting stuff.

It reminds me of that movie where the actor (Tom Cruise, maybe?) walks through the mall and the stores "know" who he is and markets directly to him.

"How do you like your new Gap t-shirts? We have great khakis to match!"

I wonder sometimes if that's really that far off...
06:12 PM on 10/11/2010
I wonder too what role 'luck' or 'timing' plays in the hit or miss of a product, a show, a decision to buy? Like when I am grocery shopping hungry, I, like most people, buy far too much food one human being can eat in a week. It's all so logically illogical.
06:08 PM on 10/11/2010
Great piece... not at all surprised. You see, I have been one of those focus panel people who said one thing and felt the other.
01:09 PM on 10/11/2010
Very interesting! I'm surprised that so many TV execs are getting it wrong and still haven't learned their lesson yet.
12:56 PM on 10/11/2010
Very interesting and true! “My generation†is another example of a show that might have “tested†well, but it failed and was canceled after just two episodes.
12:21 PM on 10/11/2010
Interesting. Maybe neuromarketing can explain why I can't turn off 'Jersey Shore'