Whatever happens from this point on, nothing will ever be the same in Tehran.
Whatever happens, if the protest gains momentum or loses steam, if it ends up prevailing or if the regime succeeds in terrorizing it, he who should now only be called president-non-elect Ahmadinejad will only be an ersatz, illegitimate, weakened president.
Whatever happens, whatever the result of this crisis provoked two weeks ago by the enormity of a fraud that serious-minded people can no longer doubt, no Iranian leader can appear on the global scene, or in any negotiation with Obama, Sarkozy, or Merkel, without being haloed, not by the nimbus of light dreamed of by Ahmadinejad in his 2005 speech to the United Nations, but by the cloud of sulphur that crowns cheaters and butchers.
Whatever happens, the Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini's successor and Supreme Leader of the regime, tutelary authority of the President, father of the people, will have lost his role as arbiter, will have shamelessly sided with one faction over the others, and will have therefore lost what remained of his authority: "Only God knows my vote," he carefully replied four years ago to those who were already calling upon him to denounce the fraud--"in the name of merciful God, I armor, I hammer, and I dissolve the people," he has responded this time to the naïve who believed he was there to uphold the Constitution.
Whatever happens, the block of ayatollahs who had always succeeded in maintaining a united front, whatever their differences and divergent interests, will have put their ferocious divisions on display: the ones behind Khamenei, approving of the decision to crush the movement with blood; the others, like the ex-President Rafsanjani, leader of the very powerful Assembly of Experts, warning that if the wave of protests were not taken seriously, veritable "volcanoes" of anger would erupt. Others still like the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri who, since his house arrest in Qom, has been calling for a recount and for national mourning for the victims of the repression; and without mentioning the leading religious experts of the "Office of Theological Seminaries" who no longer fear proposing the possibility--what passed for heresy not long ago--of Khamenei's resignation and of his replacement by a "Guidance Council."
Whatever happens, and beyond these internal conflicts, the people will be dissociated from an anemic and fatally wounded regime.
Whatever happens, young people, who were believed to be enthralled by the principles of political Islam and who a month ago, upon Ahmadinejad's return from Geneva, had supposedly planned a triumphal reception for the president-non-elect, will have said, loud and proud, with an audacity matched only by their political intelligence, that this president shamed them.
Whatever happens, there will be in Tehran, Tabriz, Ispahan, Zahedan, and Ardebil, millions of young people who in a matter of a few days will have become, like the timid Mousavi, in a sense larger than themselves--and will have understood that they could, with their bare hands, without provocation or violence, keep a power at bay.
Whatever happens, this extraordinary event--which is a miracle, as a popular uprising always is, and which was endowed under this circumstance with the blind mimetism and un-self-consciousness that is peculiar to the Angel of History when it thinks it is going forward, but is actually looking backward--will seem to have reproduced topsy-turvy the very scene in the same streets, surrounding the same barracks and the same shops, that was described thirty years ago by Michel Foucault, who never imagined that the real revolution was still to come, and that it would be the exact opposite of what he described.
Whatever happens, the people know, from this point on, that they are the people and that there is not a regime on earth that can remain in power against the people.
Whatever happens, a body politic has been formed in the heat of peaceful protests--and even if it gets winded and loses steam, even if the murderers think they can declare victory, there is a new actor onstage, without whom the rest of this country's story will not be written.
Whatever happens, the beautiful face of Neda Soltan, killed at point-blank range last Saturday by a Bassidj henchman, the images of kids beaten to death by the attack squadron and motorcycle infantry of the guardians of the revolution, the videos of the enormous protests, impressively calm and dignified, will have, via Twitter, circled both the cyberplanet and the planet.
Whatever happens, the emperor has no clothes.
Whatever happens, the regime of the ayatollahs is, in the greater or lesser long term, condemned to compromise or disappear.
We always forget that the other revolution--the first, which, 30 years ago, put this Iranian-style National Socialism into power--lasted almost a year: why would it be any different for this revolution, a democratic one concerned with what's right, which has also just taken the stage? The earth quakes in Tehran, and it is only, I'm willing to bet, the beginning.
Please click here to hear my reading of this post live.
Translated from French by Sara Phenix.
I hope what you are saying is true, that we will see a true revolution and true reform. I think ultimately that depends on whether the Iranian people are able to find consensus between their urbane, educated population and their more religious and traditional countrymen. Its a complex people, with a complex will, so I cannot envision a clear solution.
I feel that whatever strategy is established, it should include the countries that established Israel after World War II, along with China, the countries in and around the Middle East, and any country that will benefit with peace in the Middle East.
I also feel that no strategy will take effect until the world and especially the Middle East Region understands that we are at the brink of total annihilation of the Middle East and surrounding environs.
A nuclear bomb, regardless of its explosive power, will destroy the Middle East and nearby regions. The immediate blast will have an immediate effect and the fallout will bring a slow painful death to the rest of humankind in the region.
I believe our President gets the Annihilation aspect. That is why he is "slow", as per the Neo-Cons, and the other war mongers; and lining up the countries of interest to resolve the total problem of the Middle East with diplomatic toughness.
Initiatives for a dialogue should come from Israel and USA, which should analyze and revise their own policy to allow democratic and progressive forces in Iran to express themselves. We should change our appreciation and attitude towards the average Iranians, decrease the pressure on the regime and mediate between shiites and sunnites - go back to the Irak and Afghanistan conflicts...
Useless human beings who will reap what they have sown...
We now know that only that presidential candidate who is favored by Khamenie will succeed in winning the election when the fraudulent votes are counted as all such elections in Iran are hopelessly rigged. What was true of Ahmadenijad on June 12th was true for the election 4 years ago and every previous election including the presidency of the phony reformer Khatami. When Khomenie decides that a softer and more engaging foreign policy is needed to advance Iran's foreign policy goals a Khatami or Mousavi will be elected president. When he decides that a hard line confrontational approach best suits Iran's needs an Ahmadenijad will be elected and reelected. Iran is a totalitarian fascist state with phony democratic elements to confuse and decieve the ignorant. Those who imagined that there were lost opportuinites for peace with Khatami, or from a fax sent to a Swiss embassy shortly after the invasion of Iraq, have been deluding themselves. There never was nor is there now any chance of reproachment or peace with the mullahocracy. Khamenie and his clerical government remain the implacable foes of America (the Great Satan), Europe, Israel and democracy every where- including Iraq and Lebanon. We are at war with Iran and resolution will come only with the downfall of the mullahs.
All that is necessary is for a critical number of people to realize this. It was so with the Civil Rights movement, with the fall of the Soviet Union, with the fall of the shah, with various other situations that we may or may not know well, and it can be so with Iran today. I do believe you are right, Mr. Levy, but only because I think that critical mass of the Iranian populace has become aware, however awkwardly or haphazardly it has come to this awareness.
From this point, I think this can go two ways only. Either they will compromise (and eventually still come up with an Ahmadinejad victory, albeit much smaller). Or they can get more oppressive and conversely the people may step up their protests or may strike or what-have-you. I don't think a new revolution is imminent though, nor does it seem most of the protesters have (or had) that in mind. If anything major comes of this, I think it would be the end of Khamenei's time as Supreme Leader eventually, and perhaps (hopefully?) someone new and more open and reform-minded. The overall system of gov't there, I really doubt will be changed in the near future.
Ramen
News flash, everyone: theocracy is stupid, and it doesn't matter if the religion in question is christianity, judaism or islam.
Merging of church and state always, ALWAYS results in the wholesale corruption of both. We learned that lesson hundreds of years ago, thanks to the Roman Catholic Church.
Who at this point can deny that the UK/US, er, excuse me, UN creation of the "Jewish state", in the heart of land that was populated 80% by Palestinians, was the single worst decision ever made by that body?
The answer to long-term peace and stability in the Middle East is for all nations to reject theocracy, and separate their religious mythologies from their civil law. Simple, no?
We all are naked. Yet clothed in our own confusion.
“by the enormity of a fraud that serious-minded people can no longer doubt”
Translation: I have no definitive proof to present, otherwise I would.
Read around the internet and check the ballots that were not checked by inspectors, the stations that closed before time, the percentage of votes that was the same throughout the counting process, the result that came out only 2 hours after the last voting station was closed and you'll see what proofs are there.