The Swan Song of the Islamic Republic

Whatever happens from this point on, nothing will ever be the same in Tehran.

Whatever happens, if the protest gains momentum or loses steam, if it ends up prevailing or if the regime succeeds in terrorizing it, he who should now only be called president-non-elect Ahmadinejad will only be an ersatz, illegitimate, weakened president.

Whatever happens, whatever the result of this crisis provoked two weeks ago by the enormity of a fraud that serious-minded people can no longer doubt, no Iranian leader can appear on the global scene, or in any negotiation with Obama, Sarkozy, or Merkel, without being haloed, not by the nimbus of light dreamed of by Ahmadinejad in his 2005 speech to the United Nations, but by the cloud of sulphur that crowns cheaters and butchers.

Whatever happens, the Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini's successor and Supreme Leader of the regime, tutelary authority of the President, father of the people, will have lost his role as arbiter, will have shamelessly sided with one faction over the others, and will have therefore lost what remained of his authority: "Only God knows my vote," he carefully replied four years ago to those who were already calling upon him to denounce the fraud--"in the name of merciful God, I armor, I hammer, and I dissolve the people," he has responded this time to the naïve who believed he was there to uphold the Constitution.

Whatever happens, the block of ayatollahs who had always succeeded in maintaining a united front, whatever their differences and divergent interests, will have put their ferocious divisions on display: the ones behind Khamenei, approving of the decision to crush the movement with blood; the others, like the ex-President Rafsanjani, leader of the very powerful Assembly of Experts, warning that if the wave of protests were not taken seriously, veritable "volcanoes" of anger would erupt. Others still like the Grand Ayatollah Montazeri who, since his house arrest in Qom, has been calling for a recount and for national mourning for the victims of the repression; and without mentioning the leading religious experts of the "Office of Theological Seminaries" who no longer fear proposing the possibility--what passed for heresy not long ago--of Khamenei's resignation and of his replacement by a "Guidance Council."

Whatever happens, and beyond these internal conflicts, the people will be dissociated from an anemic and fatally wounded regime.

Whatever happens, young people, who were believed to be enthralled by the principles of political Islam and who a month ago, upon Ahmadinejad's return from Geneva, had supposedly planned a triumphal reception for the president-non-elect, will have said, loud and proud, with an audacity matched only by their political intelligence, that this president shamed them.

Whatever happens, there will be in Tehran, Tabriz, Ispahan, Zahedan, and Ardebil, millions of young people who in a matter of a few days will have become, like the timid Mousavi, in a sense larger than themselves--and will have understood that they could, with their bare hands, without provocation or violence, keep a power at bay.

Whatever happens, this extraordinary event--which is a miracle, as a popular uprising always is, and which was endowed under this circumstance with the blind mimetism and un-self-consciousness that is peculiar to the Angel of History when it thinks it is going forward, but is actually looking backward--will seem to have reproduced topsy-turvy the very scene in the same streets, surrounding the same barracks and the same shops, that was described thirty years ago by Michel Foucault, who never imagined that the real revolution was still to come, and that it would be the exact opposite of what he described.

Whatever happens, the people know, from this point on, that they are the people and that there is not a regime on earth that can remain in power against the people.

Whatever happens, a body politic has been formed in the heat of peaceful protests--and even if it gets winded and loses steam, even if the murderers think they can declare victory, there is a new actor onstage, without whom the rest of this country's story will not be written.

Whatever happens, the beautiful face of Neda Soltan, killed at point-blank range last Saturday by a Bassidj henchman, the images of kids beaten to death by the attack squadron and motorcycle infantry of the guardians of the revolution, the videos of the enormous protests, impressively calm and dignified, will have, via Twitter, circled both the cyberplanet and the planet.

Whatever happens, the emperor has no clothes.

Whatever happens, the regime of the ayatollahs is, in the greater or lesser long term, condemned to compromise or disappear.

We always forget that the other revolution--the first, which, 30 years ago, put this Iranian-style National Socialism into power--lasted almost a year: why would it be any different for this revolution, a democratic one concerned with what's right, which has also just taken the stage? The earth quakes in Tehran, and it is only, I'm willing to bet, the beginning.

Please click here to hear my reading of this post live.

Translated from French by Sara Phenix.

Comments

[MankyInky]

I hope so Barnard.. I am uncertain if I agree with your statement that no government can stay in power against the will of the people. Often times, its a manufacturing of complacency, I would say, that keeps the will of the people in line with government policy. I would agree there is a difference between that and when people become aware of their power and their condition, and fight for whats right.

I hope what you are saying is true, that we will see a true revolution and true reform. I think ultimately that depends on whether the Iranian people are able to find consensus between their urbane, educated population and their more religious and traditional countrymen. Its a complex people, with a complex will, so I cannot envision a clear solution.

[dmyron]

I am not so sure the events in Iran do not illuminate the hypocricy of Islam itself.And surely the Iranian people can see this for themselves.An object lesson in the frailties of humanity, the very thing Islam seeks to suppress.

[nethead]

I am not so sure the events in the Republican Party do not illuminate the hypocrisy of Christianity itself. And surely the Republican supporters can see this for themselves. An object lesson in the frailties of humanity, the very thing Christianity seeks to suppress.

[dmyron]

is this about equal time?.........

[teccoord]

No one knows what the truly effective strategy will be with respect to Iran.

I feel that whatever strategy is established, it should include the countries that established Israel after World War II, along with China, the countries in and around the Middle East, and any country that will benefit with peace in the Middle East.

I also feel that no strategy will take effect until the world and especially the Middle East Region understands that we are at the brink of total annihilation of the Middle East and surrounding environs.

A nuclear bomb, regardless of its explosive power, will destroy the Middle East and nearby regions. The immediate blast will have an immediate effect and the fallout will bring a slow painful death to the rest of humankind in the region.


I believe our President gets the Annihilation aspect. That is why he is "slow", as per the Neo-Cons, and the other war mongers; and lining up the countries of interest to resolve the total problem of the Middle East with diplomatic toughness.

[Numapompilius]

Mr. BHL points an accusing finger at a corrupt and totalitarian regime, but he does it in a cynical and arrogant way that is meant to divert attention from basic facts. Israel leads a campaign of denigration to promote a war against Iran. In fact, the holy land is the model for many fundamentalist states in the middle east, consider the influence of extermist settlers and rabbies on Israeli politics. The Iranian public had no real choices with the pre-named candidates. But the frustration is enormous. On the other side, this is a rich country and the mullahs are not collapsing. We cannot interfere directly, but we should show Iranians the way to democracy by analizing our own attitude, the deeper causes for the backward development in many middle-east nations and ways to find a constructive dialogue between arabs and Israel, but also between sunnities and shiites. Pouring oil into the fire does none of that, Mr BHL.

[Numapompilius]

The endless repetition of "whatever happenes" reveals a polemic and rethoric attack against a regime that is regarded as an enemy by Israel. Israel is the main cause for religious radicalization in the middle east, just consider the fanaticism of many right-wing politicians, the influence of extermist settlers and rabbies in the holy country. This fundamentalist state has initiated a negative spiral in the surrounding states. Iran, after being manipulated by the USA under the Shah, has been cannibalized by a backwardly but well organized clerus. In several occasions, the international community has lost golden opportunities to support a democratic opening, e.g. after 9-11 when the Iranian government & civil society were pro-american. Now, after decades of wars and repression, even a minor change of political philosophy is seen as a spectacular chance. Moussavi offers no real alternative, but he shows the degree of frustration in the society. Even though the international community cannot interfere in this process, we should stand on the side of the popular will and truth. Btw, Iran is economically strong and I see no signs of a collapse of the mullahs.
Initiatives for a dialogue should come from Israel and USA, which should analyze and revise their own policy to allow democratic and progressive forces in Iran to express themselves. We should change our appreciation and attitude towards the average Iranians, decrease the pressure on the regime and mediate between shiites and sunnites - go back to the Irak and Afghanistan conflicts...

[misaacm]

You seem a little obsessed with Israel. This article is about Iran. You need to take some time off.

[keepyourheaddown*]

Irans ruling yahoos are a farce, just a bunch of butchers, pathetic human beings who wouldn't no God if they fell over him...

Useless human beings who will reap what they have sown...

[ApolloSpeaks]

THE OUTCOME OF EVERY IRAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS PREDETERMINED

We now know that only that presidential candidate who is favored by Khamenie will succeed in winning the election when the fraudulent votes are counted as all such elections in Iran are hopelessly rigged. What was true of Ahmadenijad on June 12th was true for the election 4 years ago and every previous election including the presidency of the phony reformer Khatami. When Khomenie decides that a softer and more engaging foreign policy is needed to advance Iran's foreign policy goals a Khatami or Mousavi will be elected president. When he decides that a hard line confrontational approach best suits Iran's needs an Ahmadenijad will be elected and reelected. Iran is a totalitarian fascist state with phony democratic elements to confuse and decieve the ignorant. Those who imagined that there were lost opportuinites for peace with Khatami, or from a fax sent to a Swiss embassy shortly after the invasion of Iraq, have been deluding themselves. There never was nor is there now any chance of reproachment or peace with the mullahocracy. Khamenie and his clerical government remain the implacable foes of America (the Great Satan), Europe, Israel and democracy every where- including Iraq and Lebanon. We are at war with Iran and resolution will come only with the downfall of the mullahs.

[neoprimordial]

No power has control over any person unless that person consents to the control, whether in politics, finance, the military, or general social situations. Any behavior or practice that disenfranchises us cannot continue if we do not consent to the action.

All that is necessary is for a critical number of people to realize this. It was so with the Civil Rights movement, with the fall of the Soviet Union, with the fall of the shah, with various other situations that we may or may not know well, and it can be so with Iran today. I do believe you are right, Mr. Levy, but only because I think that critical mass of the Iranian populace has become aware, however awkwardly or haphazardly it has come to this awareness.

[periscope]

Ayatollahs and Mullahs are almost as bad as Republicans for government. The only difference is that the clerics don't drink.

[JiminNC]

The same ... just slightly different mythology

[JGriffin]

Ironically, and despite all the acrimony, Iran stands a better chance of reform now than at any time in the last 30 years. Iran is a very different animal than Iraq or most other Arab countries: it's a Western-thinking country, which is stuck with a 6th Century theocracy for a system of government. If you've bothered to read these ayatollahs' speeches (and even Khamenei's own website), it's clear that even THEY realize the practical limitations of a clergy-based civil government; even THEY realize they cannot (and more importantly, SHOULD not) maintain popular support forever.

[brothernumber2]

Newsweek reported this week that , "American officials" (anonymous, off the record) say that Ahmadinejad "probably would have won anyway", just not by so large a margin. I would question Levy's assertion that the fraud was so enormous, etc. I personally believe there was a level of fraud, yes of course. But not on an enormous level. I will inherently distrust French philosophers on the topic of Iran anyway, ever since Foucault came out on the side of the Ayatollahs in the first place back in the 70's.. ;-)

From this point, I think this can go two ways only. Either they will compromise (and eventually still come up with an Ahmadinejad victory, albeit much smaller). Or they can get more oppressive and conversely the people may step up their protests or may strike or what-have-you. I don't think a new revolution is imminent though, nor does it seem most of the protesters have (or had) that in mind. If anything major comes of this, I think it would be the end of Khamenei's time as Supreme Leader eventually, and perhaps (hopefully?) someone new and more open and reform-minded. The overall system of gov't there, I really doubt will be changed in the near future.

[hrholmes]

Religion is at the center of the problems of all those countries as has been reported on for generations. All of them tell their donors and followers that they are gawd's chosen ones and are in some ways superior to others not members of their religious brand. It does not matter whether their white haired old 'leader' wraps his head in a gym towel or dons a beanie or a robe and a pointy hat like the KKK. None have actually ever communicated to an invisible entity in the sky as far as anyone knows much less can prove although they ALL claim that they do on a regular basis, for a small donation of course. Exclusionary hate mongers for gawd is all they ever really seem to deliver.

Ramen

[JiminNC]

I would extend your first sentence to other countries as well.

[nightwind928]

To somehow think that this confusion in Iran is a true revolution is wishful thinking. Like the Tienaman Square uprising, it will be quashed with the brutality of force only those in a totalatarian government can weild. It will usher in change to be sure, but that change will be small and take time.The Iranian people will not wake up tomorrow or the next day and suddenly find themselves basking in the glow of freedom and equality. They are a country goverened by Islamic law. They chose that system themselves and many are quite happy with it, although not in it's present heavy handed form. To expect miracles to come from this chaos is expecting more than is rationally possible. In a best case scenario, there will be some political reforms with obliging consent from the Mullahs and the people will go back to their normal, daily lives, secure in the knowledge that they have won a small victory. In a worse case scenario, the country will implode on itself as Iraq did when left to it's own devices after the invasion. With Isreal standing in the wings, ready to pounce, that situation is almost unimaginable in it's conclusion for any of us.

[bub26]

so the glass is half full

[JGriffin]

You know, it's precisely this rabid, pro-Israeli propaganda that is at the root of the problem in the Middle East.

News flash, everyone: theocracy is stupid, and it doesn't matter if the religion in question is christianity, judaism or islam.

Merging of church and state always, ALWAYS results in the wholesale corruption of both. We learned that lesson hundreds of years ago, thanks to the Roman Catholic Church.

Who at this point can deny that the UK/US, er, excuse me, UN creation of the "Jewish state", in the heart of land that was populated 80% by Palestinians, was the single worst decision ever made by that body?

The answer to long-term peace and stability in the Middle East is for all nations to reject theocracy, and separate their religious mythologies from their civil law. Simple, no?

[persiangal]

Yes, simple. But that will happen only when hell freezes over.........

[lastpost]

Back away Bernard, and review anew the view.
We all are naked. Yet clothed in our own confusion.

“by the enormity of a fraud that serious-minded people can no longer doubt”
Translation: I have no definitive proof to present, otherwise I would.

[shotei]

You seriously think there are not enough evidence of a fraud?
Read around the internet and check the ballots that were not checked by inspectors, the stations that closed before time, the percentage of votes that was the same throughout the counting process, the result that came out only 2 hours after the last voting station was closed and you'll see what proofs are there.